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1.41783L252.467 2.47876L251.45 2.3637L251.707 0.60165C252.118 0.401088 252.563 0.253475 253.041 0.15797C253.519 0.0529708 253.958 1.99446e-05 254.359 0Z\"\n    fill=\"currentColor\" />\u003C/g>",{"tile":13,"orbsWithOnlyMarkdownPages":337},{"id":14,"data":15,"type":16,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":20,"orbs":21},"447e02a9-d577-4c2b-b5a0-afde9200c02e",{"type":16,"title":17,"tagline":18},9,"Biases From Filtering Information","Examine how decision-making processes are more complicated than they appear, and how mental shortcuts make most of the decisions we undertake in our daily lives.",3,5,[22,137,244],{"id":23,"data":24,"type":25,"version":19,"maxContentLevel":19,"summaryPage":27,"introPage":36,"pages":43},"26a88344-6c29-481e-8cba-28cf785e1467",{"type":25,"title":26},2,"The Anchoring Bias",{"id":28,"data":29,"type":19,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":35},"e6f6a130-ade6-43f7-8457-c353c5325c4e",{"type":19,"summary":30},[31,32,33,34],"The brain uses shortcuts to manage information overload, but these can lead to errors","Anchoring bias makes us rely on the first piece of information we get","Retailers use strikethrough pricing to exploit our anchoring bias","Judges' decisions can be swayed by arbitrary anchors, like manipulated dice rolls",1,{"id":37,"data":38,"type":39,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":35},"a0af6787-8108-4448-8f05-fb651d6b89ec",{"type":39,"intro":40},10,[41,42],"What is anchoring bias?","How does strikethrough pricing exploit anchoring bias?",[44,62,83,88,93,119,124],{"id":45,"data":46,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":49},"b6fd44b8-d8e3-4fb7-97bc-45266ad3940b",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":47,"audioMediaId":48},"Despite the wondrous complexity of the human brain, it can struggle to keep up with the sheer abundance of stimuli that humans encounter at any given moment. The brain suffers from information overload when forced to operate beyond capacity – an estimated 120 bits of data per second for the conscious mind. After all, processing data requires attention, which, in turn, requires mental energy.\n\n![Graph](image://f992a4b1-fb00-41a7-bf13-d2001eb557f2 \"A woman attempting to absorb a lot of information. Image: Jorge Franganillo, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWe live in the so-called information age, and it is important to be able to cherry-pick what warrants attention amid the flotsam of distraction around us. Take for example the breadth and depth of information we find in social media. It requires effort to sift through low-quality ‘information’ and not fall prey to fake news.","e59bc6cc-308e-4b3b-b11c-bbb9314d5464",[50],{"id":51,"data":52,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"36ac4373-4cd8-4f70-b032-4afd955e0728",{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"multiChoiceQuestion":54,"multiChoiceCorrect":56,"multiChoiceIncorrect":58,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},11,[55],"Heuristics are a way for us to deal with...",[57],"Information overload",[59,60,61],"Our emotions","Burnout","Conflict",{"id":63,"data":64,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":67},"84260648-8031-4128-a376-5f4ac15cfcf5",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":65,"audioMediaId":66},"As a way of dealing with this, the human brain employs filters that direct our attention away from trivial matters. For the most part, these shortcuts we use in information processing and decision-making serve us well, but they can also lead to errors in logic when we focus on irrelevant information or overlook key pieces of data.\n\nOne prevalent and well-researched cognitive bias is the **anchoring bias**. This refers to our tendency to ‘anchor’ judgments and decisions on **the first piece of information** that we receive on a specific matter.\n\nThough we may recognize an anchor as inaccurate or even arbitrary, our instinct is to interpret subsequent information with the anchor as a frame of reference. This distorts our perception and prevents us from assessing alternatives objectively, by their own merit.","02e8df32-5227-47a6-8964-1ad0662e0fb5",[68,76],{"id":69,"data":70,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"0aca11ce-54a4-432f-ba61-255eea6e8909",{"type":53,"reviewType":71,"spacingBehaviour":35,"clozeQuestion":72,"clozeWords":74},4,[73],"Another word for mental shortcuts is heuristics.",[75],"heuristics",{"id":77,"data":78,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"f2cdde46-b3e7-4102-a8ad-f60ec6d7d053",{"type":53,"reviewType":71,"spacingBehaviour":35,"clozeQuestion":79,"clozeWords":81},[80],"Cognitive biases arise when individuals allow their perception of reality to be shaped by their pre-existing ideas.",[82],"pre-existing",{"id":84,"data":85,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19},"64c7e088-ef7f-41a8-b116-8b3190acf289",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":86,"audioMediaId":87},"The concept of anchoring first came about in the field of psychophysics. In 1958, researchers Muzafer Sherif, Daniel Taub, and Carl Hovland examined how individuals perceived the physical characteristics of objects.\n\nThey observed that, when estimating the weights of objects, subjects adjusted their estimates based on the presence of outliers in the group, thereby exhibiting an anchoring effect. Subsequent research has since found the anchoring effect to exist in consumer purchasing behavior, in the courtroom, and in negotiation scenarios, among others.\n\n![Graph](image://ee0de763-36ae-4cbe-81ff-53e0e99da1d4 \"A woman choosing canned food at a Supermarket. Image: N509FZ, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWhen you’re out shopping and see a pair of nice-looking pants, how do you decide whether it's priced reasonably? Do you take into account its brand, the material, the quality of its stitching? Which matters more, fit or design? Translating these variables into one number is tricky because there are so many things to consider. The equation is complex and can trigger information overload.","2d0e3d8f-c660-41cd-bd4f-9169d0e42ef0",{"id":89,"data":90,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19},"9ea4985b-63f9-4f3d-b154-91ba0e82c062",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":91,"audioMediaId":92},"Going back to those pants, you check the price tag – $200. Too expensive. Hmm.\n\nWait, though. It says underneath that it’s on sale for $100. That seems completely reasonable, especially compared to its original price.\n\n![Graph](image://d1d6a604-0ba8-4670-949c-eb77e8b8b033 \"Mens boxer shorts. Image: Maartenjunior, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nYou walk out of the shop $100 poorer but ecstatic with your bargain find. Except maybe if the pants were initially priced at $100, you wouldn’t have felt the same way. But you saw the $200 price tag first, so the sale price felt reasonable relative to $200. That's **strikethrough pricing** in action, a common retail practice that takes advantage of our propensity to use anchors in decision-making.","7905618d-7911-49fa-9200-e4ea4667fcfc",{"id":94,"data":95,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":98},"0b97a59f-e0b1-44c0-95dc-3e7931dc4130",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":96,"audioMediaId":97},"Marketing and pricing strategies are rife with anchoring bias. In addition to strikethrough pricing, vendors use decoy pricing to nudge customers toward a favored product variant. For instance, the premium plan in product subscriptions seems excessive. The basic plan feels restrictive. But, as in Goldilocks and the three bears, the standard plan is *just right.*\n\n![Graph](image://e626be8c-50e5-4283-a916-81fa55a40727 \"The anchoring effect makes the middle price look like the best value. Image: Prezzo - Pricing Table :design, vennerconcept via DeviantArt, CC 3.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/\")\n\nThe anchoring effect figures into negotiation tactics too. Negotiations start with one party making a proposition that sets the tone. Subsequent counteroffers are assessed based on this initial offer, the anchor on which a deal may be struck.","81182b78-9aaa-4ff8-b663-2668f5872b3a",[99,110],{"id":100,"data":101,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"9bf48b21-c2ac-4c1e-91d2-ae3fc7c09672",{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"multiChoiceQuestion":102,"multiChoiceCorrect":104,"multiChoiceIncorrect":106,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[103],"Which of these would be a good example of the anchoring bias being harnessed in advertising?",[105],"Making regular pizzas very expensive, then always putting them on offer",[107,108,109],"Making pizzas more expensive than they need to be","Undercutting your competition with your pizza prices","Opening pizza outlets in locations where consumers have little other choice",{"id":111,"data":112,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"da588c84-2d37-477c-bbc8-3df55ccd9d6b",{"type":53,"reviewType":25,"spacingBehaviour":35,"binaryQuestion":113,"binaryCorrect":115,"binaryIncorrect":117},[114],"When you identify as an environmentalist and that makes you more likely to recycle is an example of...",[116],"Conscious bias",[118],"Unconscious bias",{"id":120,"data":121,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25},"7033c310-240d-4265-b406-be3ac8d09d5d",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":122,"audioMediaId":123},"Even courtroom decisions are not exempt from bias. In one study, judges rolled a pair of dice to determine the prosecutor’s sentencing demand. Researchers manipulated the dice to favor either high or low rolls. Despite knowing that the demand was arbitrary, judges served sentences impacted by their rolls. The high-anchor group sentenced an average of eight months; the low-anchor group an average of five. The study begs the question – to what extent do irrelevant factors impact courtroom decisions?\n\n![Graph](image://d49689df-62df-4b3f-97ea-816de2a9a6d6 \"A judge. Image: photo taken by flickr user maveric2003, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nTwo leading theories seek to explain anchoring bias. Tversky and Kahneman’s anchoring-and-adjusting hypothesis suggests that, when humans make estimates, we first set a starting point, or an anchor, and adjust accordingly. However, adjustments usually end up being insufficient, leaving us with a final estimate that ends up closer to its anchor than to the target.","a7f900cf-d800-4239-8ab6-e67508dd7c12",{"id":125,"data":126,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"reviews":129},"dbf2a2be-78e8-4e89-b3e8-43b11fe4b05e",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":127,"audioMediaId":128},"Meanwhile, the selective accessibility hypothesis explains anchoring as a result of a priming effect. When making judgments, by default, we consider the plausibility of an anchor that is at the top of our mind. Even if the anchor proves incorrect, our mental calculus considers parts of the anchor that seem relevant to the value we are looking for, thus serving as a benchmark for comparative judgement.\n\n![Graph](image://186e9787-2711-4ac8-8652-fa117414ebf5 \"Anchor at the top of the mind. Image: Drparas1, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nNevertheless, studies find that anchoring bias is difficult to avoid, even when incentivized to do so. The best way to overcome this bias, according to experts Thomas Mussweiler, Fritz Strack, and Tim Pfeiffer, is to create counterarguments against an anchor, similar to playing devil’s advocate.","3bdc2221-c931-4863-84a9-fe1a5d272f07",[130],{"id":131,"data":132,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"4ee17d19-73c8-4ea6-98d3-8acae58b7bf8",{"type":53,"reviewType":71,"spacingBehaviour":35,"clozeQuestion":133,"clozeWords":135},[134],"Tversky and Kahneman argue that anchoring can be explained by our tendency to put too much weight on our initial estimates",[136],"estimates",{"id":138,"data":139,"type":25,"version":20,"maxContentLevel":19,"summaryPage":141,"introPage":149,"pages":155},"3f549ac1-1905-4973-b9f4-be4ebfcebfd2",{"type":25,"title":140},"Understanding Base Rate Fallacy",{"id":142,"data":143,"type":19,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":35},"dfa77783-6ef7-4519-b26d-5c9b6af3a886",{"type":19,"summary":144},[145,146,147,148],"Base rate fallacy is when we ignore general statistics and focus on specific details","There are 100 times more salespeople than librarians in the USA","A positive cancer test with 95% accuracy means only an 87% chance of actually having cancer","Iceland's COVID-19 case surge among vaccinated people was misinterpreted due to base rate neglect",{"id":150,"data":151,"type":39,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":35},"06500e5a-a247-4533-955d-596586b2a6b9",{"type":39,"intro":152},[153,154],"Why is a man more likely to be a shy salesperson than a librarian?","How does base rate neglect affect the interpretation of medical test results?",[156,182,197,202,207,212,227],{"id":157,"data":158,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":161},"6a2f26e2-15ac-4c64-95b3-b2b0c8a5d0ab",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":159,"audioMediaId":160},"The concept of base rate fallacy involves the human tendency to ignore the pre-existing statistical information, and to rely on the information specific to this case. This cognitive bias suggests that, when given a base rate or statistics on a general phenomenon, humans tend to rely more on anecdotal evidence.\n\nLet’s illustrate this with an example. You’re shown a picture of a man, and told that he is a shy man. You then have to guess what his profession is – you are told that he is either a salesman, or a librarian.\n\n![Graph](image://8924ad14-dd71-4527-b4e7-58d0957c625f \"Salesman or librarian? Image: Ana Nichita, Public Domain via Unsplash.\")\n\nStraight off the bat, you’re probably thinking that if all we know about him is that he’s a shy man, a good guess would be that he’s a librarian. But let’s try to think about the base rates – the initial populations that we are working with.","dc02bc87-a160-478d-95ce-e93b4f774eb7",[162],{"id":163,"data":164,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"ebb577fc-e4c3-43c1-a7ef-2c586630633f",{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"collapsingSiblings":165,"multiChoiceQuestion":169,"multiChoiceCorrect":171,"multiChoiceIncorrect":173,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":177,"matchPairsPairs":179},[166,167,168],"9890dc9a-fe33-4a5d-8a2d-6a7348d28192","9ade7f11-ea18-48ef-bd37-634b1fb256aa","b0ec0065-ba18-4304-a391-c2222b56f8df",[170],"Which of the following best describes the base rate fallacy?",[172],"Tendency to ignore prior statistical information",[174,175,176],"Tendency to make decisions based on pre-existing beliefs","Study of mental processes","Techniques that simplify otherwise complicated cognitive tasks",[178],"Match the pairs below:",[180],{"left":181,"right":172,"direction":19},"Base rate fallacy",{"id":183,"data":184,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":20,"reviews":187},"b89999aa-d9fa-4b49-8275-5040de913407",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":185,"audioMediaId":186},"There are many more salespeople than there are librarians in the general population. In fact, there are 13 million salespeople in the USA. In comparison, there are roughly 130,000 librarians. These are the actual numbers according to Statista, as of 2024.\n\nSo, if we know nothing about this man other than that he’s a US citizen, and either a librarian or a salesman, we can start with the probability he is 100 times more likely to be a salesman. This is because there are 100 times as many salespeople as there are librarians.\n\n![Graph](image://f05493bb-81c8-4c92-ab12-1e3382088545 \"People selling items at a convention. Image: Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nBut what about the fact that he’s shy? Most of us don’t think of salespeople as shy. And we might be right! Let’s assume only 3% of salespeople are shy. Where does this leave us?","876d6219-b8ca-45d6-9422-d1c6f5ee2d4e",[188],{"id":189,"data":190,"type":53,"version":25,"maxContentLevel":19},"0591defb-9efa-4cc2-85f0-776b9ae1148c",{"type":53,"reviewType":25,"spacingBehaviour":35,"binaryQuestion":191,"binaryCorrect":193,"binaryIncorrect":195},[192],"You're told this statement: 'There is a car in this box. It is very fast. It could be a Nissan, an Audi, or a Bugatti' Which of the following conclusions is NOT displaying the base rate fallacy?",[194],"Statistically, it is more likely to be an Audi or Nissan than a Bugatti",[196],"Bugatti make the fastest car in the world - it's probably a Bugatti",{"id":198,"data":199,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19},"01a17008-0b28-4510-92f6-e0593d84d183",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":200,"audioMediaId":201},"If we assume 3% of salespeople are shy, then that means there are 390,000 *shy* salespeople in America. That’s still three times as many shy salespeople as there are librarians. And that’s assuming all librarians are shy, which they probably aren’t. If we assume 80% of librarians are shy, that gives us 104,000 shy librarians in America. If we divide 390,000 by 104,000, we end up with 3.75. The man is still 3.75 times more likely to be a salesperson than he is a librarian.\n\nHowever, because we hear the fact that he’s shy, and this is something we associate more with librarians, we jump straight to the conclusion he is one. **We have to remember the base rates**.","fe5ff0bb-f0be-44bf-853f-a1083d7db797",{"id":203,"data":204,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19},"88a41534-11e9-4928-9d38-93f9cc740ac3",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":205,"audioMediaId":206},"One thing that becomes apparent when we talk about the base rate fallacy is how most people misinterpret statistics. Whether this has more to do with our statistical literacy or with the potentially misleading nature of some statistical statements is up for debate. Some researchers argue that it's a matter of how we phrase statistical questions – some formats are more intuitive than others. All the same, let's have a look at the concepts at play.\n\n![Graph](image://da781741-476c-4df1-86e9-3280bedd7bf5 \"A confusing graphical statistic. Image: Smallman12q, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThe term ‘base rate’ refers to prior probabilities. By extension, this means that we’re dealing with at least two sets of probabilities. When we’re faced with multiple sets of information, according to the base rate fallacy, we tend to favor specific details at the expense of the general. What we should be doing is assessing each statement for relevance, and then integrating the relevant pieces of information to come up with a better prediction. This is where Bayesian probabilities come in.","3228f832-5a90-4942-a2bb-37c86100c3fa",{"id":208,"data":209,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":71},"672ca929-72b8-49db-ae67-625fdd684e05",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":210,"audioMediaId":211},"In healthcare, no test is 100% accurate. Most medical tests produce false positives, where a healthy individual is incorrectly diagnosed as ill. Though rare, these occur where the prevalence of the condition being tested is low. And although a false positive is not as dangerous as a false negative – which deprives patients of the treatment they need – it causes unwarranted anxiety and burden.\n\n![Graph](image://a0d3f159-e4da-4dfe-a296-10ee3c8de462 \"A patient being tested. Image: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nTake a medical test that detects cancer with 95% accuracy. The actual prevalence of the condition is five in every thousand, or 0.5%. Say a patient tests positive. We know the test isn’t 100% accurate. How likely is the patient to be ill?","2bccc5f0-f9ef-452e-9d4f-4c3704bd4d5a",{"id":213,"data":214,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":71,"reviews":217},"f585891a-f2e6-4077-ac84-23dd94b58654",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":215,"audioMediaId":216},"Most of us fall prey to base rate neglect and say 95% – after all, that’s how accurate the test is. However, applying Bayes’ theorem, we integrate the two pieces of information – (a) the test is wrong 5% of the time, and (b) any person has only a 0.5% chance of suffering from the condition. Using inferential statistics the actual probability of cancer, given a positive result, is 8.7%, a stark difference from 95%.\n\n![Graph](image://9956a3e9-20ed-4d07-a3a2-55ce060ddd0e \"Doctors looking at an X-ray. Image: \nM Joko Apriyo Putro, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nMisunderstanding statistics due to base rate neglect can cause undue panic and, subsequently, faulty decision-making. Upon seeing a negative earnings report, an investor may pull out their investments prematurely– even if it’s a company’s first quarter in the red following years of steady growth. This dip may just be a blip in the greater scheme of things, but, as the saying goes, sometimes we miss the forest for the trees.","c589fd33-6b33-4ee7-b1d2-479f5a48779e",[218],{"id":219,"data":220,"type":53,"version":25,"maxContentLevel":19},"a24acd8d-3bbc-4f66-9ed6-6800f9289643",{"type":53,"reviewType":25,"spacingBehaviour":35,"binaryQuestion":221,"binaryCorrect":223,"binaryIncorrect":225},[222],"Identify the base rate in this statement: '0.5% of the population contract leukemia, and leukemia tests are 95% accurate.'",[224],"0.50%",[226],"95%",{"id":228,"data":229,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":20,"reviews":232},"6c4f7754-3380-49be-a2a2-e8619b55c790",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":230,"audioMediaId":231},"In July 2021, eyebrows were raised in Iceland over COVID-19 vaccines. Despite a 71% vaccination rate, Iceland saw a surge in COVID-19 cases, with 67% of infections detected from fully vaccinated individuals. Pundits weaponized this as proof of vaccine ineffectiveness, but they ignored the broader context.\n\n![Graph](image://c23caa82-c768-4bc2-b94c-360eaa95f302 \"A map of COVID-19 cases in Iceland per capita. Image: Bjarki S, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIf 71% of the population was vaccinated, and the vaccine was ineffective, then you’d expect 71% of the new cases to be detected from vaccinated individuals. Instead it was 67%. This means that the vaccines were (likely) having some effect on keeping numbers down. Another factor here is that it was the most at-risk people who were vaccinated anyway – the infection rate among them was always likely to be higher.\n\nThis is a classic example of how base rate neglect can have real-world impacts.","617ec0be-826f-462e-927e-510c7720fbd9",[233],{"id":234,"data":235,"type":53,"version":19,"maxContentLevel":19},"bde3811e-3d70-4ccb-910c-39d1f89a9883",{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"multiChoiceQuestion":236,"multiChoiceCorrect":238,"multiChoiceIncorrect":240,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[237],"If 100% of a population is vaccinated, and 20% of the population gets infected, what percentage of new cases would come from vaccinated individuals?",[239],"100%",[241,242,243],"50%","80%","3.5%",{"id":245,"data":246,"type":25,"version":71,"maxContentLevel":19,"summaryPage":248,"introPage":256,"pages":262},"9d8d5595-9841-4404-9489-4bc3f123465b",{"type":25,"title":247},"The Framing Effect",{"id":249,"data":250,"type":19,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":35},"e8835e4c-7235-4638-bb51-35f51b1ad975",{"type":19,"summary":251},[252,253,254,255],"The framing effect shows that how we present info matters more than the info itself","We fear losses more than we value gains, leading to risk-averse choices","Availability and affect heuristics make us favor easy-to-recall and emotional info","Positive framing highlights benefits, while negative framing exploits fears",{"id":257,"data":258,"type":39,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":35},"17ec4493-7732-4140-93fd-d3503944ab94",{"type":39,"intro":259},[260,261],"What is the framing effect?","How does the availability heuristic influence decision-making?",[263,288,303,320],{"id":264,"data":265,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"reviews":268},"e36c74eb-3297-4219-b3cd-a6b67f698deb",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":266,"audioMediaId":267},"When trying to win people over, it's not just about what we say. More than that, how we say it is important. One element of effective communication is presenting messages so they resonate with one’s audience. Indeed, marketers are constantly reminded to step inside the consumer’s mind and to reflect the aspirations and frustrations of their target market in their messaging.\n\n![Graph](image://48096831-9438-408c-9978-76ae9da25451 \"Marketing team brainstorming customer needs. Image: Watty62, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThis is consistent with the **framing effect,** which states that, when we make decisions, humans tend to focus on the way information is presented rather than on the information itself. Hence, we have to ‘frame’ our message in a way that directs people’s attention where we want them to focus.","af091970-3f31-4e32-b0f3-64e75857d5fe",[269],{"id":270,"data":271,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"fc166c1d-fd8d-4611-aa99-10d61d0f83bb",{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"collapsingSiblings":272,"multiChoiceQuestion":276,"multiChoiceCorrect":278,"multiChoiceIncorrect":280,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":284,"matchPairsPairs":285},[273,274,275],"6ee6cace-8329-4d1a-aa0b-001854bb75a1","41985ba2-c16f-47f6-9cfd-c999fe0b4e57","bc5ef4dd-e48a-4ff7-9c9a-a034e6dab469",[277],"Which of the following best describes the framing effect?",[279],"Tendency to focus on the way information is presented rather than the information itself",[281,282,283],"Tendency to favor information that is easier to recall","Tendency to prefer information that appeals to our emotions","Belief that previous outcomes of a random event can affect the probability of a future event",[178],[286],{"left":287,"right":279,"direction":19},"Framing effect",{"id":289,"data":290,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"reviews":293},"580fe2c8-24a8-4551-b175-dc5343812fc5",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":291,"audioMediaId":292},"Unfortunately, this cognitive bias may lead to suboptimal choices when inferior choices are deliberately presented in a positive light. We see this often in product packaging and advertising material. Two products may be identical, but the one that pushes its product benefits more effectively will end up being more successful than its counterpart. Or, a subpar product may word things so as to understate or obscure its flaws.\n\n![Graph](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/Fredmeyer_edit_1.jpg/274px-Fredmeyer_edit_1.jpg \"Products vying for attention in the supermarket. Image: Original:  lyzadangerDerivative work:  Diliff, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nTo help explain the framing effect, Tversky and Kahneman developed the prospect theory, which suggests that we do not perceive potential gains and losses symmetrically. As humans, we fear a potential loss more than we value an equivalent potential gain. In this regard, we lean toward risk aversion. Thus, when faced with two options – a guaranteed $50 versus a 50% chance of receiving $100 – we are likely to choose the first option despite the upside potential of the second choice.","10a46db6-b593-4310-91d4-e6f15c25bccb",[294],{"id":295,"data":296,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},"44c54444-f15f-4ec6-a62b-d34afe189973",{"type":53,"reviewType":25,"spacingBehaviour":35,"binaryQuestion":297,"binaryCorrect":299,"binaryIncorrect":301},[298],"Which of these is an example of the framing effect in action?",[300],"Doctors tell patients they have a 90% chance of surviving surgery, rather than a 10% chance of dying",[302],"People tend to forget the prior population figures when considering vaccine effectiveness",{"id":304,"data":305,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":71,"reviews":308},"4bc50b22-b913-42f0-bcb6-cf2b2b196d99",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":306,"audioMediaId":307},"In tandem with prospect theory, our brain reverts to two shortcuts in particular that contribute to the framing effect. The **availability heuristic** refers to our tendency to favor information that is easier to recall – say, simple explanations that require minimal cognitive load. In addition, we prefer information that appeals to our emotions – the **affect heuristic**.\n\nIn sum, when making decisions, the options we lean toward are often those that were framed to highlight potential benefits, minimize risks, stick to the top of our mind, and evoke an emotional response. Framing is widely used in consumer marketing. When we walk down the aisles of a supermarket and see signs like ‘save $50,’ or ‘buy one get one,’ that’s called positive framing – emphasizing what the buyer stands to gain.\n\n![Graph](image://10cd2c02-6e68-4a98-bd2a-feb991066838 \"Bread reduced to clear in a supermarket. Image:Philafrenzy, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nConversely, when we receive marketing emails in our inboxes with headlines like, *'Don’t miss out on this year’s biggest sale!”* or, *'Stop wasting your time on x, y, z,”* that’s negative framing exploiting our fears and frustrations.","e5f8b86a-bda2-4043-b614-44b1518b716c",[309],{"id":273,"data":310,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"collapsingSiblings":311,"multiChoiceQuestion":312,"multiChoiceCorrect":314,"multiChoiceIncorrect":315,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":316,"matchPairsPairs":317},[270,274,275],[313],"Which of the following best describes the availability heuristic?",[281],[279,282,283],[178],[318],{"left":319,"right":281,"direction":19},"Availability heuristic",{"id":321,"data":322,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":325},"1e406bf1-8707-493e-b939-ffb297043ed3",{"type":35,"contentRole":25,"markdownContent":323,"audioMediaId":324},"Research suggests that positive framing produces higher conversion rates, but it's not a hard and fast rule. Testing to ensure that messaging resonates with a target audience is still best practice.\n\nSo, how do we avoid letting our biases nudge us into potentially suboptimal decisions? One way is to **slow down our decision-making and seek alternative information** that may be framed differently. We can also examine the choices we make thoroughly, picking apart our rationales for any possible bias.","4a527421-3366-445a-9af5-8a24f56c705f",[326],{"id":274,"data":327,"type":53,"version":35,"maxContentLevel":19},{"type":53,"reviewType":19,"spacingBehaviour":35,"collapsingSiblings":328,"multiChoiceQuestion":329,"multiChoiceCorrect":331,"multiChoiceIncorrect":332,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":333,"matchPairsPairs":334},[270,273,275],[330],"Which of the following best describes the affect heuristic?",[282],[279,281,283],[178],[335],{"left":336,"right":282,"direction":19},"Affect heuristic",[338,558,757],{"id":23,"data":24,"type":25,"version":19,"maxContentLevel":19,"summaryPage":27,"introPage":36,"pages":339},[340,372,409,439,476,508,533],{"id":45,"data":46,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":49,"parsed":341},{"data":342,"body":345,"toc":370},{"title":343,"description":344},"","Despite the wondrous complexity of the human brain, it can struggle to keep up with the sheer abundance of stimuli that humans encounter at any given moment. The brain suffers from information overload when forced to operate beyond capacity – an estimated 120 bits of data per second for the conscious mind. After all, processing data requires attention, which, in turn, requires mental energy.",{"type":346,"children":347},"root",[348,355,365],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":351,"children":352},"element","p",{},[353],{"type":354,"value":344},"text",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":356,"children":357},{},[358],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":360,"children":364},"img",{"alt":361,"src":362,"title":363},"Graph","image://f992a4b1-fb00-41a7-bf13-d2001eb557f2","A woman attempting to absorb a lot of information. Image: Jorge Franganillo, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":366,"children":367},{},[368],{"type":354,"value":369},"We live in the so-called information age, and it is important to be able to cherry-pick what warrants attention amid the flotsam of distraction around us. Take for example the breadth and depth of information we find in social media. It requires effort to sift through low-quality ‘information’ and not fall prey to fake news.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":371},[],{"id":63,"data":64,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":67,"parsed":373},{"data":374,"body":376,"toc":407},{"title":343,"description":375},"As a way of dealing with this, the human brain employs filters that direct our attention away from trivial matters. For the most part, these shortcuts we use in information processing and decision-making serve us well, but they can also lead to errors in logic when we focus on irrelevant information or overlook key pieces of data.",{"type":346,"children":377},[378,382,402],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":379,"children":380},{},[381],{"type":354,"value":375},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":383,"children":384},{},[385,387,393,395,400],{"type":354,"value":386},"One prevalent and well-researched cognitive bias is the ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":389,"children":390},"strong",{},[391],{"type":354,"value":392},"anchoring bias",{"type":354,"value":394},". This refers to our tendency to ‘anchor’ judgments and decisions on ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":396,"children":397},{},[398],{"type":354,"value":399},"the first piece of information",{"type":354,"value":401}," that we receive on a specific matter.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":403,"children":404},{},[405],{"type":354,"value":406},"Though we may recognize an anchor as inaccurate or even arbitrary, our instinct is to interpret subsequent information with the anchor as a frame of reference. This distorts our perception and prevents us from assessing alternatives objectively, by their own merit.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":408},[],{"id":84,"data":85,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"parsed":410},{"data":411,"body":413,"toc":437},{"title":343,"description":412},"The concept of anchoring first came about in the field of psychophysics. In 1958, researchers Muzafer Sherif, Daniel Taub, and Carl Hovland examined how individuals perceived the physical characteristics of objects.",{"type":346,"children":414},[415,419,424,432],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":416,"children":417},{},[418],{"type":354,"value":412},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":420,"children":421},{},[422],{"type":354,"value":423},"They observed that, when estimating the weights of objects, subjects adjusted their estimates based on the presence of outliers in the group, thereby exhibiting an anchoring effect. Subsequent research has since found the anchoring effect to exist in consumer purchasing behavior, in the courtroom, and in negotiation scenarios, among others.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":425,"children":426},{},[427],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":428,"children":431},{"alt":361,"src":429,"title":430},"image://ee0de763-36ae-4cbe-81ff-53e0e99da1d4","A woman choosing canned food at a Supermarket. Image: N509FZ, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":433,"children":434},{},[435],{"type":354,"value":436},"When you’re out shopping and see a pair of nice-looking pants, how do you decide whether it's priced reasonably? Do you take into account its brand, the material, the quality of its stitching? Which matters more, fit or design? Translating these variables into one number is tricky because there are so many things to consider. The equation is complex and can trigger information overload.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":438},[],{"id":89,"data":90,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"parsed":440},{"data":441,"body":443,"toc":474},{"title":343,"description":442},"Going back to those pants, you check the price tag – $200. Too expensive. Hmm.",{"type":346,"children":444},[445,449,454,462],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":446,"children":447},{},[448],{"type":354,"value":442},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":450,"children":451},{},[452],{"type":354,"value":453},"Wait, though. It says underneath that it’s on sale for $100. That seems completely reasonable, especially compared to its original price.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":455,"children":456},{},[457],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":458,"children":461},{"alt":361,"src":459,"title":460},"image://d1d6a604-0ba8-4670-949c-eb77e8b8b033","Mens boxer shorts. Image: Maartenjunior, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":463,"children":464},{},[465,467,472],{"type":354,"value":466},"You walk out of the shop $100 poorer but ecstatic with your bargain find. Except maybe if the pants were initially priced at $100, you wouldn’t have felt the same way. But you saw the $200 price tag first, so the sale price felt reasonable relative to $200. That's ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":468,"children":469},{},[470],{"type":354,"value":471},"strikethrough pricing",{"type":354,"value":473}," in action, a common retail practice that takes advantage of our propensity to use anchors in decision-making.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":475},[],{"id":94,"data":95,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":98,"parsed":477},{"data":478,"body":480,"toc":506},{"title":343,"description":479},"Marketing and pricing strategies are rife with anchoring bias. In addition to strikethrough pricing, vendors use decoy pricing to nudge customers toward a favored product variant. For instance, the premium plan in product subscriptions seems excessive. The basic plan feels restrictive. But, as in Goldilocks and the three bears, the standard plan is just right.",{"type":346,"children":481},[482,493,501],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":483,"children":484},{},[485,487],{"type":354,"value":486},"Marketing and pricing strategies are rife with anchoring bias. In addition to strikethrough pricing, vendors use decoy pricing to nudge customers toward a favored product variant. For instance, the premium plan in product subscriptions seems excessive. The basic plan feels restrictive. But, as in Goldilocks and the three bears, the standard plan is ",{"type":349,"tag":488,"props":489,"children":490},"em",{},[491],{"type":354,"value":492},"just right.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":494,"children":495},{},[496],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":497,"children":500},{"alt":361,"src":498,"title":499},"image://e626be8c-50e5-4283-a916-81fa55a40727","The anchoring effect makes the middle price look like the best value. Image: Prezzo - Pricing Table :design, vennerconcept via DeviantArt, CC 3.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":502,"children":503},{},[504],{"type":354,"value":505},"The anchoring effect figures into negotiation tactics too. Negotiations start with one party making a proposition that sets the tone. Subsequent counteroffers are assessed based on this initial offer, the anchor on which a deal may be struck.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":507},[],{"id":120,"data":121,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"parsed":509},{"data":510,"body":512,"toc":531},{"title":343,"description":511},"Even courtroom decisions are not exempt from bias. In one study, judges rolled a pair of dice to determine the prosecutor’s sentencing demand. Researchers manipulated the dice to favor either high or low rolls. Despite knowing that the demand was arbitrary, judges served sentences impacted by their rolls. The high-anchor group sentenced an average of eight months; the low-anchor group an average of five. The study begs the question – to what extent do irrelevant factors impact courtroom decisions?",{"type":346,"children":513},[514,518,526],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":515,"children":516},{},[517],{"type":354,"value":511},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":519,"children":520},{},[521],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":522,"children":525},{"alt":361,"src":523,"title":524},"image://d49689df-62df-4b3f-97ea-816de2a9a6d6","A judge. Image: photo taken by flickr user maveric2003, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":527,"children":528},{},[529],{"type":354,"value":530},"Two leading theories seek to explain anchoring bias. Tversky and Kahneman’s anchoring-and-adjusting hypothesis suggests that, when humans make estimates, we first set a starting point, or an anchor, and adjust accordingly. However, adjustments usually end up being insufficient, leaving us with a final estimate that ends up closer to its anchor than to the target.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":532},[],{"id":125,"data":126,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"reviews":129,"parsed":534},{"data":535,"body":537,"toc":556},{"title":343,"description":536},"Meanwhile, the selective accessibility hypothesis explains anchoring as a result of a priming effect. When making judgments, by default, we consider the plausibility of an anchor that is at the top of our mind. Even if the anchor proves incorrect, our mental calculus considers parts of the anchor that seem relevant to the value we are looking for, thus serving as a benchmark for comparative judgement.",{"type":346,"children":538},[539,543,551],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":540,"children":541},{},[542],{"type":354,"value":536},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":544,"children":545},{},[546],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":547,"children":550},{"alt":361,"src":548,"title":549},"image://186e9787-2711-4ac8-8652-fa117414ebf5","Anchor at the top of the mind. Image: Drparas1, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":552,"children":553},{},[554],{"type":354,"value":555},"Nevertheless, studies find that anchoring bias is difficult to avoid, even when incentivized to do so. The best way to overcome this bias, according to experts Thomas Mussweiler, Fritz Strack, and Tim Pfeiffer, is to create counterarguments against an anchor, similar to playing devil’s advocate.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":557},[],{"id":138,"data":139,"type":25,"version":20,"maxContentLevel":19,"summaryPage":141,"introPage":149,"pages":559},[560,590,620,652,677,702,727],{"id":157,"data":158,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":161,"parsed":561},{"data":562,"body":564,"toc":588},{"title":343,"description":563},"The concept of base rate fallacy involves the human tendency to ignore the pre-existing statistical information, and to rely on the information specific to this case. This cognitive bias suggests that, when given a base rate or statistics on a general phenomenon, humans tend to rely more on anecdotal evidence.",{"type":346,"children":565},[566,570,575,583],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":567,"children":568},{},[569],{"type":354,"value":563},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":571,"children":572},{},[573],{"type":354,"value":574},"Let’s illustrate this with an example. You’re shown a picture of a man, and told that he is a shy man. You then have to guess what his profession is – you are told that he is either a salesman, or a librarian.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":576,"children":577},{},[578],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":579,"children":582},{"alt":361,"src":580,"title":581},"image://8924ad14-dd71-4527-b4e7-58d0957c625f","Salesman or librarian? Image: Ana Nichita, Public Domain via Unsplash.",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":584,"children":585},{},[586],{"type":354,"value":587},"Straight off the bat, you’re probably thinking that if all we know about him is that he’s a shy man, a good guess would be that he’s a librarian. But let’s try to think about the base rates – the initial populations that we are working with.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":589},[],{"id":183,"data":184,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":20,"reviews":187,"parsed":591},{"data":592,"body":594,"toc":618},{"title":343,"description":593},"There are many more salespeople than there are librarians in the general population. In fact, there are 13 million salespeople in the USA. In comparison, there are roughly 130,000 librarians. These are the actual numbers according to Statista, as of 2024.",{"type":346,"children":595},[596,600,605,613],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":597,"children":598},{},[599],{"type":354,"value":593},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":601,"children":602},{},[603],{"type":354,"value":604},"So, if we know nothing about this man other than that he’s a US citizen, and either a librarian or a salesman, we can start with the probability he is 100 times more likely to be a salesman. This is because there are 100 times as many salespeople as there are librarians.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":606,"children":607},{},[608],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":609,"children":612},{"alt":361,"src":610,"title":611},"image://f05493bb-81c8-4c92-ab12-1e3382088545","People selling items at a convention. Image: Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":614,"children":615},{},[616],{"type":354,"value":617},"But what about the fact that he’s shy? Most of us don’t think of salespeople as shy. And we might be right! Let’s assume only 3% of salespeople are shy. Where does this leave us?",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":619},[],{"id":198,"data":199,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"parsed":621},{"data":622,"body":624,"toc":650},{"title":343,"description":623},"If we assume 3% of salespeople are shy, then that means there are 390,000 shy salespeople in America. That’s still three times as many shy salespeople as there are librarians. And that’s assuming all librarians are shy, which they probably aren’t. If we assume 80% of librarians are shy, that gives us 104,000 shy librarians in America. If we divide 390,000 by 104,000, we end up with 3.75. The man is still 3.75 times more likely to be a salesperson than he is a librarian.",{"type":346,"children":625},[626,638],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":627,"children":628},{},[629,631,636],{"type":354,"value":630},"If we assume 3% of salespeople are shy, then that means there are 390,000 ",{"type":349,"tag":488,"props":632,"children":633},{},[634],{"type":354,"value":635},"shy",{"type":354,"value":637}," salespeople in America. That’s still three times as many shy salespeople as there are librarians. And that’s assuming all librarians are shy, which they probably aren’t. If we assume 80% of librarians are shy, that gives us 104,000 shy librarians in America. If we divide 390,000 by 104,000, we end up with 3.75. The man is still 3.75 times more likely to be a salesperson than he is a librarian.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":639,"children":640},{},[641,643,648],{"type":354,"value":642},"However, because we hear the fact that he’s shy, and this is something we associate more with librarians, we jump straight to the conclusion he is one. ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":644,"children":645},{},[646],{"type":354,"value":647},"We have to remember the base rates",{"type":354,"value":649},".",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":651},[],{"id":203,"data":204,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"parsed":653},{"data":654,"body":656,"toc":675},{"title":343,"description":655},"One thing that becomes apparent when we talk about the base rate fallacy is how most people misinterpret statistics. Whether this has more to do with our statistical literacy or with the potentially misleading nature of some statistical statements is up for debate. Some researchers argue that it's a matter of how we phrase statistical questions – some formats are more intuitive than others. All the same, let's have a look at the concepts at play.",{"type":346,"children":657},[658,662,670],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":659,"children":660},{},[661],{"type":354,"value":655},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":663,"children":664},{},[665],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":666,"children":669},{"alt":361,"src":667,"title":668},"image://da781741-476c-4df1-86e9-3280bedd7bf5","A confusing graphical statistic. Image: Smallman12q, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":671,"children":672},{},[673],{"type":354,"value":674},"The term ‘base rate’ refers to prior probabilities. By extension, this means that we’re dealing with at least two sets of probabilities. When we’re faced with multiple sets of information, according to the base rate fallacy, we tend to favor specific details at the expense of the general. What we should be doing is assessing each statement for relevance, and then integrating the relevant pieces of information to come up with a better prediction. This is where Bayesian probabilities come in.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":676},[],{"id":208,"data":209,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":71,"parsed":678},{"data":679,"body":681,"toc":700},{"title":343,"description":680},"In healthcare, no test is 100% accurate. Most medical tests produce false positives, where a healthy individual is incorrectly diagnosed as ill. Though rare, these occur where the prevalence of the condition being tested is low. And although a false positive is not as dangerous as a false negative – which deprives patients of the treatment they need – it causes unwarranted anxiety and burden.",{"type":346,"children":682},[683,687,695],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":684,"children":685},{},[686],{"type":354,"value":680},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":688,"children":689},{},[690],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":691,"children":694},{"alt":361,"src":692,"title":693},"image://a0d3f159-e4da-4dfe-a296-10ee3c8de462","A patient being tested. Image: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":696,"children":697},{},[698],{"type":354,"value":699},"Take a medical test that detects cancer with 95% accuracy. The actual prevalence of the condition is five in every thousand, or 0.5%. Say a patient tests positive. We know the test isn’t 100% accurate. How likely is the patient to be ill?",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":701},[],{"id":213,"data":214,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":71,"reviews":217,"parsed":703},{"data":704,"body":706,"toc":725},{"title":343,"description":705},"Most of us fall prey to base rate neglect and say 95% – after all, that’s how accurate the test is. However, applying Bayes’ theorem, we integrate the two pieces of information – (a) the test is wrong 5% of the time, and (b) any person has only a 0.5% chance of suffering from the condition. Using inferential statistics the actual probability of cancer, given a positive result, is 8.7%, a stark difference from 95%.",{"type":346,"children":707},[708,712,720],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":709,"children":710},{},[711],{"type":354,"value":705},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":713,"children":714},{},[715],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":716,"children":719},{"alt":361,"src":717,"title":718},"image://9956a3e9-20ed-4d07-a3a2-55ce060ddd0e","Doctors looking at an X-ray. Image: \nM Joko Apriyo Putro, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":721,"children":722},{},[723],{"type":354,"value":724},"Misunderstanding statistics due to base rate neglect can cause undue panic and, subsequently, faulty decision-making. Upon seeing a negative earnings report, an investor may pull out their investments prematurely– even if it’s a company’s first quarter in the red following years of steady growth. This dip may just be a blip in the greater scheme of things, but, as the saying goes, sometimes we miss the forest for the trees.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":726},[],{"id":228,"data":229,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":20,"reviews":232,"parsed":728},{"data":729,"body":731,"toc":755},{"title":343,"description":730},"In July 2021, eyebrows were raised in Iceland over COVID-19 vaccines. Despite a 71% vaccination rate, Iceland saw a surge in COVID-19 cases, with 67% of infections detected from fully vaccinated individuals. Pundits weaponized this as proof of vaccine ineffectiveness, but they ignored the broader context.",{"type":346,"children":732},[733,737,745,750],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":734,"children":735},{},[736],{"type":354,"value":730},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":738,"children":739},{},[740],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":741,"children":744},{"alt":361,"src":742,"title":743},"image://c23caa82-c768-4bc2-b94c-360eaa95f302","A map of COVID-19 cases in Iceland per capita. Image: Bjarki S, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":746,"children":747},{},[748],{"type":354,"value":749},"If 71% of the population was vaccinated, and the vaccine was ineffective, then you’d expect 71% of the new cases to be detected from vaccinated individuals. Instead it was 67%. This means that the vaccines were (likely) having some effect on keeping numbers down. Another factor here is that it was the most at-risk people who were vaccinated anyway – the infection rate among them was always likely to be higher.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":751,"children":752},{},[753],{"type":354,"value":754},"This is a classic example of how base rate neglect can have real-world impacts.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":756},[],{"id":245,"data":246,"type":25,"version":71,"maxContentLevel":19,"summaryPage":248,"introPage":256,"pages":758},[759,791,816,874],{"id":264,"data":265,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"reviews":268,"parsed":760},{"data":761,"body":763,"toc":789},{"title":343,"description":762},"When trying to win people over, it's not just about what we say. More than that, how we say it is important. One element of effective communication is presenting messages so they resonate with one’s audience. Indeed, marketers are constantly reminded to step inside the consumer’s mind and to reflect the aspirations and frustrations of their target market in their messaging.",{"type":346,"children":764},[765,769,777],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":766,"children":767},{},[768],{"type":354,"value":762},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":770,"children":771},{},[772],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":773,"children":776},{"alt":361,"src":774,"title":775},"image://48096831-9438-408c-9978-76ae9da25451","Marketing team brainstorming customer needs. Image: Watty62, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":778,"children":779},{},[780,782,787],{"type":354,"value":781},"This is consistent with the ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":783,"children":784},{},[785],{"type":354,"value":786},"framing effect,",{"type":354,"value":788}," which states that, when we make decisions, humans tend to focus on the way information is presented rather than on the information itself. Hence, we have to ‘frame’ our message in a way that directs people’s attention where we want them to focus.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":790},[],{"id":289,"data":290,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":19,"reviews":293,"parsed":792},{"data":793,"body":795,"toc":814},{"title":343,"description":794},"Unfortunately, this cognitive bias may lead to suboptimal choices when inferior choices are deliberately presented in a positive light. We see this often in product packaging and advertising material. Two products may be identical, but the one that pushes its product benefits more effectively will end up being more successful than its counterpart. Or, a subpar product may word things so as to understate or obscure its flaws.",{"type":346,"children":796},[797,801,809],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":798,"children":799},{},[800],{"type":354,"value":794},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":802,"children":803},{},[804],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":805,"children":808},{"alt":361,"src":806,"title":807},"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/Fredmeyer_edit_1.jpg/274px-Fredmeyer_edit_1.jpg","Products vying for attention in the supermarket. Image: Original:  lyzadangerDerivative work:  Diliff, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":810,"children":811},{},[812],{"type":354,"value":813},"To help explain the framing effect, Tversky and Kahneman developed the prospect theory, which suggests that we do not perceive potential gains and losses symmetrically. As humans, we fear a potential loss more than we value an equivalent potential gain. In this regard, we lean toward risk aversion. Thus, when faced with two options – a guaranteed $50 versus a 50% chance of receiving $100 – we are likely to choose the first option despite the upside potential of the second choice.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":815},[],{"id":304,"data":305,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":71,"reviews":308,"parsed":817},{"data":818,"body":820,"toc":872},{"title":343,"description":819},"In tandem with prospect theory, our brain reverts to two shortcuts in particular that contribute to the framing effect. The availability heuristic refers to our tendency to favor information that is easier to recall – say, simple explanations that require minimal cognitive load. In addition, we prefer information that appeals to our emotions – the affect heuristic.",{"type":346,"children":821},[822,840,845,853],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":823,"children":824},{},[825,827,832,834,839],{"type":354,"value":826},"In tandem with prospect theory, our brain reverts to two shortcuts in particular that contribute to the framing effect. The ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":828,"children":829},{},[830],{"type":354,"value":831},"availability heuristic",{"type":354,"value":833}," refers to our tendency to favor information that is easier to recall – say, simple explanations that require minimal cognitive load. In addition, we prefer information that appeals to our emotions – the ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":835,"children":836},{},[837],{"type":354,"value":838},"affect heuristic",{"type":354,"value":649},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":841,"children":842},{},[843],{"type":354,"value":844},"In sum, when making decisions, the options we lean toward are often those that were framed to highlight potential benefits, minimize risks, stick to the top of our mind, and evoke an emotional response. Framing is widely used in consumer marketing. When we walk down the aisles of a supermarket and see signs like ‘save $50,’ or ‘buy one get one,’ that’s called positive framing – emphasizing what the buyer stands to gain.",{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":846,"children":847},{},[848],{"type":349,"tag":359,"props":849,"children":852},{"alt":361,"src":850,"title":851},"image://10cd2c02-6e68-4a98-bd2a-feb991066838","Bread reduced to clear in a supermarket. Image:Philafrenzy, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons",[],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":854,"children":855},{},[856,858,863,865,870],{"type":354,"value":857},"Conversely, when we receive marketing emails in our inboxes with headlines like, ",{"type":349,"tag":488,"props":859,"children":860},{},[861],{"type":354,"value":862},"'Don’t miss out on this year’s biggest sale!”",{"type":354,"value":864}," or, ",{"type":349,"tag":488,"props":866,"children":867},{},[868],{"type":354,"value":869},"'Stop wasting your time on x, y, z,”",{"type":354,"value":871}," that’s negative framing exploiting our fears and frustrations.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":873},[],{"id":321,"data":322,"type":35,"maxContentLevel":19,"version":25,"reviews":325,"parsed":875},{"data":876,"body":878,"toc":896},{"title":343,"description":877},"Research suggests that positive framing produces higher conversion rates, but it's not a hard and fast rule. Testing to ensure that messaging resonates with a target audience is still best practice.",{"type":346,"children":879},[880,884],{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":881,"children":882},{},[883],{"type":354,"value":877},{"type":349,"tag":350,"props":885,"children":886},{},[887,889,894],{"type":354,"value":888},"So, how do we avoid letting our biases nudge us into potentially suboptimal decisions? One way is to ",{"type":349,"tag":388,"props":890,"children":891},{},[892],{"type":354,"value":893},"slow down our decision-making and seek alternative information",{"type":354,"value":895}," that may be framed differently. We can also examine the choices we make thoroughly, picking apart our rationales for any possible bias.",{"title":343,"searchDepth":25,"depth":25,"links":897},[],{"left":4,"top":4,"width":899,"height":899,"rotate":4,"vFlip":6,"hFlip":6,"body":900},24,"\u003Cpath fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"m9 18l6-6l-6-6\"/>",{"left":4,"top":4,"width":899,"height":899,"rotate":4,"vFlip":6,"hFlip":6,"body":902},"\u003Cpath fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"M4 5h16M4 12h16M4 19h16\"/>",1778228285616]