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Mechanisms","What are the underyling biases that affect our decisions? How can we identify them? What can we learn from them?",5,[38,128,210,289],{"id":39,"data":40,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":44,"introPage":52,"pages":59},"e2c1638d-c3f2-40e7-b5c1-ef2ca2f7a29b",{"type":41,"title":42},2,"Understanding Cognitive Biases",4,{"id":45,"data":46,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"e8f33abd-8d87-4c25-916f-92633d575391",{"type":27,"summary":47},[48,49,50,51],"Cognitive biases are unconscious beliefs that affect our decisions","The Monte Carlo fallacy shows how biases can lead to poor choices","Researchers have identified around 200 cognitive biases","Anchoring, in-group, and confirmation biases are common examples",{"id":53,"data":54,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"176eb60c-490c-41db-8fc0-1a9f066828e1",{"type":55,"intro":56},10,[57,58],"What is the 'Gambler's Fallacy'?","Which cognitive bias makes you more likely to buy something on sale?",[60,65,102],{"id":61,"data":62,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"7b13873b-098f-48d7-91a7-44e9b99ae59e",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":63,"audioMediaId":64},"On August 18, 1913, somewhere in the night of Monte Carlo, a casino roulette wheel landed on black for the 10th time in a row. The gamblers, frantically convinced the next spin would be red, began to bet heavily. More and more people joined the crowd.\n\n![Graph](image://b90d290f-fcf0-4743-bcde-b41e3251e280 \"A roulette wheel. Image: Ralf Roletschek, CC BY-SA 3.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nSurely a red would be next? By the time it finally showed, after 26 black spins, the crowd had lost a colossal fortune. All because of a cognitive bias.","20b57531-10dc-4a6b-b41e-1842a474d83b",{"id":66,"data":67,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":70},"a5a408a1-585c-497e-a073-414ca25fd7e9",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":68,"audioMediaId":69},"We make thousands of decisions every day. Some of them are difficult, some of them are so easy we don’t even notice we are making them. How can we know if we are making good decisions? How can we avoid falling into traps, and betting on red?\n\nCognitive psychology attempts to answer these questions by uncovering the unconscious biases that underlie so many of our behaviors.\n\nThese are called **cognitive biases** – the many ways in which we apply our pre-existing beliefs to decisions that should be based in more rational grounds.","a35e0d1c-a932-4cff-b79f-3cc1f3c9dfd9",[71,91],{"id":72,"data":73,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"9890dc9a-fe33-4a5d-8a2d-6a7348d28192",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":74,"multiChoiceQuestion":78,"multiChoiceCorrect":80,"multiChoiceIncorrect":82,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":86,"matchPairsPairs":88},[75,76,77],"9ade7f11-ea18-48ef-bd37-634b1fb256aa","b0ec0065-ba18-4304-a391-c2222b56f8df","ebb577fc-e4c3-43c1-a7ef-2c586630633f",[79],"Which of the following best describes cognitive biases?",[81],"Tendency to make decisions based on pre-existing beliefs",[83,84,85],"Study of mental processes","Techniques that simplify otherwise complicated cognitive tasks","Tendency to ignore prior statistical information",[87],"Match the pairs below:",[89],{"left":90,"right":81,"direction":27},"Cognitive bias",{"id":75,"data":92,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":93,"multiChoiceQuestion":94,"multiChoiceCorrect":96,"multiChoiceIncorrect":97,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":98,"matchPairsPairs":99},[72,76,77],[95],"Which of the following best describes cognitive psychology?",[83],[81,84,85],[87],[100],{"left":101,"right":83,"direction":27},"Cognitive psychology",{"id":103,"data":104,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"reviews":107},"7d7c75cf-5e15-4549-9e56-f3a944214ac3",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":105,"audioMediaId":106},"To date, researchers have identified around 200 cognitive biases, and you will already be familiar with many of them.\n\nWhen you see a heavily discounted price, and are more likely to make a purchase, this is called ‘anchoring bias’. When you are more critical of the behaviour of rival football supporters than your own team’s, this is ‘in-group bias’. And when you are more likely to believe a news report which supports an opinion you already held. This is ‘confirmation bias’.\n\n![Graph](image://b1a6404a-c0dc-4a6d-946c-0916fcdedb19 \"A colourful cartoon of rival football teams chanting - AI generated image by DALL-E 2\")\n\nAfter taking this pathway, you will be able to identify the most significant cognitive biases that affect our lives, and how to avoid them.\n\nYou will also have learned about the amazing psychology experiments that revealed these biases, and the brilliant psychologists behind them. Lastly, you will have explored the evolutionary explanations behind cognitive biases, and be engaged in the debate around why they might not always be a bad thing.","76453611-dd40-4649-ad91-6c42487e7513",[108,117],{"id":109,"data":110,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"b8b6aa65-cd61-406d-88d7-2e7137ca58e6",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":111,"binaryCorrect":113,"binaryIncorrect":115},[112],"The study of cognitive biases is primarily done by...",[114],"Cognitive psychologists",[116],"Cognitive neurologists",{"id":118,"data":119,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"c963ab17-8d07-4ea1-a05f-ad372b693c50",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":120,"multiChoiceCorrect":122,"multiChoiceIncorrect":124,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[121],"To date, how many cognitive biases have been identified by researchers?",[123],"Around 200",[125,126,127],"Around 50","Around 1000","Just a few",{"id":129,"data":130,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":132,"introPage":140,"pages":146},"2dd29a12-64ca-4d89-b2ec-f67fd68bd7b6",{"type":41,"title":131},"Understanding Decision-Making",{"id":133,"data":134,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"a9106c8e-02ee-456f-a6be-94142cbc2505",{"type":27,"summary":135},[136,137,138,139],"We make decisions both automatically and with careful thought","Unconscious biases shape many of our daily decisions","Biases come from social influences and our brain's pattern-seeking","Heuristics are mental shortcuts we use to simplify complex tasks",{"id":141,"data":142,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"8bffc782-b33a-4447-a8bc-dbf66e648ed4",{"type":55,"intro":143},[144,145],"What are heuristics?","How can unconscious biases contradict conscious beliefs?",[147,152,167,182],{"id":148,"data":149,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"7940b037-29f8-43a2-8e1e-a06617a3e889",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":150,"audioMediaId":151},"As we move through the world, we are constantly making decisions and judgments. Some choices we make come as second nature, and we do not even realize in that exact moment that a decision is being made. Mundanities like crossing the road when the light turns green are seemingly automatic habits that for most people require little effort, if any.\n\n![Graph](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2d/Zebra_crossing%2C_Leith_Walk_-_geograph.org.uk_-_4724140.jpg/180px-Zebra_crossing%2C_Leith_Walk_-_geograph.org.uk_-_4724140.jpg \"Crossing the road. Image: Zebra crossing, Leith Walk by Richard Webb, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nOn the other hand, we also face difficult decisions that demand more deliberation – getting married, moving interstate for work, changing careers. In these situations, some of us draw a pros and cons list on our notepad, or we consult with close friends or mentors. In these circumstances, we tend to favor rationality over emotion, our brains over our hearts.","228f06d5-1d68-449b-8398-76c32e46716e",{"id":153,"data":154,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":157},"f2800e93-4ad0-45ed-be98-44ffbffffcd0",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":155,"audioMediaId":156},"The ‘best’ course of action is one backed by numbers and cold, hard facts. But studies in cognitive psychology would beg to differ. Instead, research suggests that **many of the decisions we make on a day-to-day basis are colored by unconscious biases** that operate in the background.\n\nWhen psychologists talk about bias, they're referring to our tendency to favor something or someone for whatever reason. Biases can lead to unfair situations – racial and gender stereotypes can lead to microaggressions in daily interactions. But, although the word ‘bias’ carries a negative connotation, biases are not bad *per se*; they are simply inclinations or preferences we carry.","578270ad-6d72-449a-b108-4e2768452715",[158],{"id":159,"data":160,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"28f1bdb1-0995-427d-a07b-73d144d5aa62",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":161,"binaryCorrect":163,"binaryIncorrect":165},[162],"Cognitive biases have no positive value",[164],"FALSE",[166],"TRUE",{"id":168,"data":169,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":172},"dd8905de-f9b6-424f-b96f-8d18fda852da",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":170,"audioMediaId":171},"One can make distinctions between conscious and unconscious biases. As the name suggests, conscious or explicit biases are those we are aware of. They help form an individual’s identity, such as in a self-proclaimed feminist.\n\nConscious bias can lead to good decisions – say, someone who identifies as an environmentalist who strives to minimize their carbon footprint. But conscious biases can also lead to less desirable outcomes, as when a hiring manager with racist beliefs consistently makes hiring decisions based on interviewees’ skin color.\n\n![Graph](image://2bb2cde6-2929-4459-98d5-cca73a43c647 \"Someone choosing to recycle. Image: R. Henrik Nilsson, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nUnconscious biases can run counter to conscious biases. An individual may claim to be in favor of diversity and tolerance, but their actions may contradict their conscious beliefs. This is because unconscious or implicit biases often escape our control and consciousness.","8218bfa1-e966-47ce-8b33-58efaedc85b3",[173],{"id":174,"data":175,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"35595897-faf1-4c0a-8b83-c82f5ac00175",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":176,"binaryCorrect":178,"binaryIncorrect":180},[177],"Select the example of a conscious bias:",[179],"An employer states that Ivy League graduates are the best, and they won't be considering applications from any other schools",[181],"A hiring manager tends to hire candidates who graduated from the same university they attended, without realizing it",{"id":183,"data":184,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":187},"b71c7531-6ade-49bb-bc5c-3267de71563b",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":185,"audioMediaId":186},"So, how do humans come to hold biases? Some biases are a direct result of social and cultural influences – ideas we absorb from the media we consume, beliefs and attitudes modeled by our parents when we were growing up, or even ‘truths’ we learned from religious doctrine. Someone who received a strictly Catholic education, for example, may hold views on sexuality that fall in step with how they were taught in their formative years.\n\n![Graph](image://cbf60c04-decd-4ede-a9d1-b4d046d6c89f \"A traditional Catholic wedding. Image: Public domain via Wikimedia.\")\n\nBiases may also come from the innately human habit of pattern seeking. Human brains look for patterns as a way of making sense of the world, and sometimes we may see patterns where there really are no meaningful ones to speak of.\n\nIn line with pattern recognition, human brains also have a tendency to take mental shortcuts to solve problems efficiently. These shortcuts are called **heuristics**, which refers to any of the techniques or ‘rules of thumb’ we employ in our everyday lives to simplify otherwise complicated cognitive tasks.","020e15a5-675b-46dc-9857-7786b397ddaf",[188,199],{"id":189,"data":190,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"43121afb-8ded-4bbd-94b6-4a31ec079d88",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":191,"multiChoiceCorrect":193,"multiChoiceIncorrect":195,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[192],"Which statement best explains how biases influence human decision-making?",[194],"We apply pre-existing beliefs to decisions that should be rational",[196,197,198],"Good decision-making is completely free from the influence of unconscious biases","Biases, whether conscious or unconscious, are shaped solely by social and cultural influences","Conscious biases are always harmful, whereas unconscious biases are typically benign",{"id":76,"data":200,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":201,"multiChoiceQuestion":202,"multiChoiceCorrect":204,"multiChoiceIncorrect":205,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":206,"matchPairsPairs":207},[72,75,77],[203],"Which of the following best describes heuristics?",[84],[81,83,85],[87],[208],{"left":209,"right":84,"direction":27},"Heuristics",{"id":211,"data":212,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":214,"introPage":222,"pages":228},"2b9e9e29-c53b-497c-b9d5-48a7ae37b5fd",{"type":41,"title":213},"Mechanisms of Bias",{"id":215,"data":216,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"79a8c80a-5d56-4bc0-a8aa-cc1214eee92f",{"type":27,"summary":217},[218,219,220,221],"Heuristics are mental shortcuts that help us make quick decisions","The anchoring heuristic makes us rely heavily on the first piece of information we get","Cognitive biases are thinking errors that arise from oversimplifying complex information","System 1 is fast and instinctive, while System 2 is slow and rational",{"id":223,"data":224,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"b608fcce-2b48-4d48-baae-6db506801186",{"type":55,"intro":225},[226,227],"What is the anchoring heuristic?","How do system 1 and system 2 thinking differ?",[229,255,272],{"id":230,"data":231,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":234},"6de952ea-715f-4154-bb30-4340a27ab786",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":232,"audioMediaId":233},"Heuristics present themselves as common-sense tools that aid in judgment calls or decision-making. A commonly used heuristic is the anchoring heuristic, in which we tend to use the first piece of information we receive to **anchor** subsequent data. \n\nFor instance, a coat that was initially priced at $700 but is now for sale at 50% off will come across as a bargain, even though we may not necessarily have perceived it as such if it had originally been offered to us at $350.\n\n![Graph](image://62ecf5fe-2dba-47a7-ad42-e886dfdc69ba \"Jackets on sale. Image: Peachyeung316, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nAs in the previous example, heuristics are by no means infallible, but they often suffice when we have to make snap decisions based on limited information. \n\nThe concept of heuristics plays into the idea of ‘satisficing,’ where a good enough or satisfactory decision works just as well as an optimal solution. Think of it as a trade-off between accuracy and speed. Heuristics may not give us the perfect answer all the time, but they work well enough in most situations – and sometimes, good enough is good enough.","593622f2-0a35-4bd8-91fa-dba8096f86b2",[235,246],{"id":236,"data":237,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"756da066-c723-4759-ac74-b9f24607ce7b",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":238,"multiChoiceCorrect":240,"multiChoiceIncorrect":242,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[239],"Which bias is being shown in the following statement: 'That table is pretty cheap: it was on offer for $10,000, but now it's just $8,000!",[241],"Anchoring heuristic",[243,244,245],"Sunk cost fallacy","Availability heuristic","Satisficing",{"id":247,"data":248,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"2dce7a3d-39e3-47f5-9351-115e08d7d746",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":249,"binaryCorrect":251,"binaryIncorrect":253},[250],"What is 'satisficing'?",[252],"The idea that a 'good enough' decision is all you need",[254],"The idea that you can never have too much information",{"id":256,"data":257,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":260},"c7d534ae-5671-403c-a20d-1a62ce4c290d",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":258,"audioMediaId":259},"For all their utility, one downside of heuristics is that, when they fail, they often lead to cognitive biases, a term coined by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the 1970s.\n\nWhen we attempt to oversimplify a complex world such as ours, we fall prey to unconscious thinking errors – conflating ideas, misinterpreting information, and even misremembering events. Errors can occur in any of the four steps of decision-making – when we gather information, when we process data, when we make judgments, or when we receive feedback.\n\n![Graph](image://b7a3e10c-c71c-4afd-92ab-b02e13888e68 \"Doomscrolling: By Japanexperterna.se - www.japanexperterna.se/?attachment_id=3068 (archived: https://web.archive.org/web/20240511030329/https://www.japanexperterna.se/17470913285_a8eae3ebc0_o), CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115769182\")\n\nCognitive biases arise when individuals allow their perception of reality to be shaped by their pre-existing ideas. When we are on social media, for example, we have a tendency of clicking on headlines that align with our beliefs and scrolling past those we disagree with. When a colleague receives a promotion, it's because they were lucky; but if we achieve a work milestone, it's because we earned it through hard work.","f0e3d55d-ace2-457b-bc42-050f69bb3a2f",[261],{"id":262,"data":263,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"174f0ebe-11bb-4e67-ae1e-1ff8f0f4b177",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":264,"multiChoiceCorrect":266,"multiChoiceIncorrect":268,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[265],"Which of these is a true statement about the relationship between cognitive biases and heuristics?",[267],"Cognitive biases are where heuristics lead us to make flawed decisions",[269,270,271],"Heuristics are a type of cognitive bias","Heuristics are more dangerous than cognitive biases","They aren't really related at all",{"id":273,"data":274,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":277},"4ce0b399-f91b-4236-a464-ef55ab3a75a2",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":275,"audioMediaId":276},"In his book *Thinking, Fast and Slow*, 2002 Nobel Prize Winner in Economics, Daniel Kahneman, presents a framework that allows us to better appreciate why cognitive biases are so pervasive. Kahneman makes the distinction between **system 1** and **system 2** thinking. System 1 is fast, instinctive, emotional, but error-prone. In contrast, system 2 is deliberative, rational, and logical – but effortful and slow.\n\n![Graph](image://164f8125-2b0f-4120-9a2f-bf370b7be297 \"Nobel Prize Winner Daniel Kahneman. Image: nrkbeta, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nSpecifically, system 1 drives automatic processes that require minimal effort, like basic addition (1+1=2), understanding simple sentences, or detecting distances. System 2 takes over when more consciousness is involved – walking more quickly than normal, doing long division, or parallel parking.\n\nSystem 1 allows us to act quickly; system 2 provides the rationality required by complex decision-making. Though the two systems seem diametrically opposed, they work in tandem and feed off each other efficiently. System 1 sends signals to system 2, and the latter supports the former when intuition falls short.","296bb9dc-4a4e-4735-b6da-56ad09ed4423",[278],{"id":279,"data":280,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"d1e544e4-00d6-4983-80f2-fef393cd64ae",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":281,"multiChoiceCorrect":283,"multiChoiceIncorrect":285,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[282],"Which of the following examples best illustrates System 2 thinking?",[284],"Planning a budget for the next month",[286,287,288],"Recognizing a friend's face in a crowd","Quickly braking to stop a car crash","Laughing at a joke your brother made",{"id":290,"data":291,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":293,"introPage":301,"pages":307},"c013d5d1-453c-40f8-ae0a-6e3f0e288066",{"type":41,"title":292},"The Role of Intuition",{"id":294,"data":295,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"78828390-b985-465a-811c-5589c75636f3",{"type":27,"summary":296},[297,298,299,300],"Adults make about 35,000 decisions daily, mostly using intuition","Heuristics are mental shortcuts that help us avoid cognitive overload","Cognitive biases are part of our brain's adaptive toolbox for decision-making","Researchers have identified around 200 cognitive biases, grouped into categories to manage them better",{"id":302,"data":303,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"fc50cd21-c3c0-401d-8bb7-0e1265ca4a6e",{"type":55,"intro":304},[305,306],"How many decisions do adults make daily?","What is the purpose of heuristics according to Gerd Gigerenzer?",[308,336,353],{"id":309,"data":310,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":313},"8e034c0c-5e91-48a1-a1d3-3ac716624896",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":311,"audioMediaId":312},"Adults make roughly 35,000 decisions on a daily basis. Imagine a world in which system 2 took over. Our brains would be bogged down by cognitive overload. So, while the slow, deliberate nature of our rational selves may appear more sensible, it makes sense that our intuition – system 1 – does 98% of our thinking.\n\nWe need mental shortcuts to continuously process the world around us without frying our brain. We cannot afford anything less than quick action when we are faced with emergencies like an oncoming car or a blazing fire that needs to be put out.","0484ad88-42a9-457d-b38e-47ce4fd11e6e",[314,325],{"id":315,"data":316,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"59c42b35-964b-46a7-8dc6-9649ed419269",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":317,"multiChoiceCorrect":319,"multiChoiceIncorrect":321,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[318],"How much of our thinking falls into the 'System 1' category?",[320],"98%",[322,323,324],"88%","78%","68%",{"id":326,"data":327,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"1a838a93-e26f-463b-9c4a-0727fe463c0d",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":328,"multiChoiceCorrect":330,"multiChoiceIncorrect":332,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[329],"Which cognitive system do we use when making complex decisions?",[331],"System 2",[333,334,335],"System A","System B","System 3",{"id":337,"data":338,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":341},"eaab3087-47a3-4be6-aff3-6e88b49e4fa6",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":339,"audioMediaId":340},"In fact, psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer from the Max Planck Institute for Human Development posits that heuristics, rather than being indicative of the human brain’s limited capacity, make up an ‘adaptive toolbox’ to circumvent the limitations imposed by an uncertain world.\n\n![Graph](image://b2780e8f-1960-400b-8350-c8c370bcbe74 \"Gerd Gigerenzer. Image: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung from Berlin, Deutschland, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThat is, heuristics – and as an extension, cognitive biases – are a means for us to restore order amidst a haze of information. When we fail to see the ways in which our brain tricks us, our decision-making suffers. To address the potentially harmful outcomes of our biases, we must first be aware of them and be able to recognize them.","0f27dccc-9e54-4989-a2e4-d9180f5ac6c0",[342],{"id":343,"data":344,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"3938d6f7-1352-4e50-9bb3-5160fa97a65c",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":345,"multiChoiceCorrect":347,"multiChoiceIncorrect":349,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[346],"Select the true statement:",[348],"Heuristics can form an 'adaptive toolbox' to deal with uncertainty",[350,351,352],"Heuristics are an 'adaptive toolbox' and should be avoided","Heuristics are an 'adaptive toolbox' that help us eliminate uncertainty","Heuristics are an 'adaptive toolbox' that can be used to solve any problem",{"id":354,"data":355,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"reviews":358},"bfc25b1c-1fe5-430e-b7ef-76fa13105132",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":356,"audioMediaId":357},"To date, **researchers have identified 200 cognitive biases**, give or take. Some biases overlap, and the sheer number of biases is enough to trigger information overload. A number of experts and thinkers have sought to design frameworks that group biases into neat categories that are more digestible.\n\n![Graph](image://14e17c4b-990f-4ce1-b0f0-87eb79836b17 \"Cognitive overload. Image: Braun Barbara, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nAuthor Buster Benson suggests categories based on issues we encounter in decision-making – information, meaning, urgency, and memory. John Manoogian III’s *The Cognitive Bias Codex* provides a visualization of this. Meanwhile, Halvorson and Rock’s *SEEDS model* groups biases into five categories, with an equivalent course of action for mitigating each bias category – speed, expedience, experience, distance, and safety.","27d77cd8-79d8-458d-8474-0427a25e5214",[359],{"id":360,"data":361,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"554b10b3-4fc6-4b9f-a1de-f2fc7067a90c",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":362,"clozeWords":364},[363],"Halvorson and Rock’s SEEDS model groups biases into five categories, with an equivalent course of action for mitigating each bias category.",[365],"SEEDS",{"id":367,"data":368,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":36,"orbs":371},"447e02a9-d577-4c2b-b5a0-afde9200c02e",{"type":28,"title":369,"tagline":370},"Biases From Filtering Information","Examine how decision-making processes are more complicated than they appear, and how mental shortcuts make most of the decisions we undertake in our daily lives.",[372,482,580],{"id":373,"data":374,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":376,"introPage":384,"pages":390},"26a88344-6c29-481e-8cba-28cf785e1467",{"type":41,"title":375},"The Anchoring Bias",{"id":377,"data":378,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"e6f6a130-ade6-43f7-8457-c353c5325c4e",{"type":27,"summary":379},[380,381,382,383],"The brain uses shortcuts to manage information overload, but these can lead to errors","Anchoring bias makes us rely on the first piece of information we get","Retailers use strikethrough pricing to exploit our anchoring bias","Judges' decisions can be swayed by arbitrary anchors, like manipulated dice rolls",{"id":385,"data":386,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"a0af6787-8108-4448-8f05-fb651d6b89ec",{"type":55,"intro":387},[388,389],"What is anchoring bias?","How does strikethrough pricing exploit anchoring bias?",[391,408,428,433,438,464,469],{"id":392,"data":393,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":396},"b6fd44b8-d8e3-4fb7-97bc-45266ad3940b",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":394,"audioMediaId":395},"Despite the wondrous complexity of the human brain, it can struggle to keep up with the sheer abundance of stimuli that humans encounter at any given moment. The brain suffers from information overload when forced to operate beyond capacity – an estimated 120 bits of data per second for the conscious mind. After all, processing data requires attention, which, in turn, requires mental energy.\n\n![Graph](image://f992a4b1-fb00-41a7-bf13-d2001eb557f2 \"A woman attempting to absorb a lot of information. Image: Jorge Franganillo, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWe live in the so-called information age, and it is important to be able to cherry-pick what warrants attention amid the flotsam of distraction around us. Take for example the breadth and depth of information we find in social media. It requires effort to sift through low-quality ‘information’ and not fall prey to fake news.","e59bc6cc-308e-4b3b-b11c-bbb9314d5464",[397],{"id":398,"data":399,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"36ac4373-4cd8-4f70-b032-4afd955e0728",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":400,"multiChoiceCorrect":402,"multiChoiceIncorrect":404,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[401],"Heuristics are a way for us to deal with...",[403],"Information overload",[405,406,407],"Our emotions","Burnout","Conflict",{"id":409,"data":410,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":413},"84260648-8031-4128-a376-5f4ac15cfcf5",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":411,"audioMediaId":412},"As a way of dealing with this, the human brain employs filters that direct our attention away from trivial matters. For the most part, these shortcuts we use in information processing and decision-making serve us well, but they can also lead to errors in logic when we focus on irrelevant information or overlook key pieces of data.\n\nOne prevalent and well-researched cognitive bias is the **anchoring bias**. This refers to our tendency to ‘anchor’ judgments and decisions on **the first piece of information** that we receive on a specific matter.\n\nThough we may recognize an anchor as inaccurate or even arbitrary, our instinct is to interpret subsequent information with the anchor as a frame of reference. This distorts our perception and prevents us from assessing alternatives objectively, by their own merit.","02e8df32-5227-47a6-8964-1ad0662e0fb5",[414,421],{"id":415,"data":416,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"0aca11ce-54a4-432f-ba61-255eea6e8909",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":417,"clozeWords":419},[418],"Another word for mental shortcuts is heuristics.",[420],"heuristics",{"id":422,"data":423,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"f2cdde46-b3e7-4102-a8ad-f60ec6d7d053",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":424,"clozeWords":426},[425],"Cognitive biases arise when individuals allow their perception of reality to be shaped by their pre-existing ideas.",[427],"pre-existing",{"id":429,"data":430,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"64c7e088-ef7f-41a8-b116-8b3190acf289",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":431,"audioMediaId":432},"The concept of anchoring first came about in the field of psychophysics. In 1958, researchers Muzafer Sherif, Daniel Taub, and Carl Hovland examined how individuals perceived the physical characteristics of objects.\n\nThey observed that, when estimating the weights of objects, subjects adjusted their estimates based on the presence of outliers in the group, thereby exhibiting an anchoring effect. Subsequent research has since found the anchoring effect to exist in consumer purchasing behavior, in the courtroom, and in negotiation scenarios, among others.\n\n![Graph](image://ee0de763-36ae-4cbe-81ff-53e0e99da1d4 \"A woman choosing canned food at a Supermarket. Image: N509FZ, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWhen you’re out shopping and see a pair of nice-looking pants, how do you decide whether it's priced reasonably? Do you take into account its brand, the material, the quality of its stitching? Which matters more, fit or design? Translating these variables into one number is tricky because there are so many things to consider. The equation is complex and can trigger information overload.","2d0e3d8f-c660-41cd-bd4f-9169d0e42ef0",{"id":434,"data":435,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"9ea4985b-63f9-4f3d-b154-91ba0e82c062",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":436,"audioMediaId":437},"Going back to those pants, you check the price tag – $200. Too expensive. Hmm.\n\nWait, though. It says underneath that it’s on sale for $100. That seems completely reasonable, especially compared to its original price.\n\n![Graph](image://d1d6a604-0ba8-4670-949c-eb77e8b8b033 \"Mens boxer shorts. Image: Maartenjunior, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nYou walk out of the shop $100 poorer but ecstatic with your bargain find. Except maybe if the pants were initially priced at $100, you wouldn’t have felt the same way. But you saw the $200 price tag first, so the sale price felt reasonable relative to $200. That's **strikethrough pricing** in action, a common retail practice that takes advantage of our propensity to use anchors in decision-making.","7905618d-7911-49fa-9200-e4ea4667fcfc",{"id":439,"data":440,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":443},"0b97a59f-e0b1-44c0-95dc-3e7931dc4130",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":441,"audioMediaId":442},"Marketing and pricing strategies are rife with anchoring bias. In addition to strikethrough pricing, vendors use decoy pricing to nudge customers toward a favored product variant. For instance, the premium plan in product subscriptions seems excessive. The basic plan feels restrictive. But, as in Goldilocks and the three bears, the standard plan is *just right.*\n\n![Graph](image://e626be8c-50e5-4283-a916-81fa55a40727 \"The anchoring effect makes the middle price look like the best value. Image: Prezzo - Pricing Table :design, vennerconcept via DeviantArt, CC 3.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/\")\n\nThe anchoring effect figures into negotiation tactics too. Negotiations start with one party making a proposition that sets the tone. Subsequent counteroffers are assessed based on this initial offer, the anchor on which a deal may be struck.","81182b78-9aaa-4ff8-b663-2668f5872b3a",[444,455],{"id":445,"data":446,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"9bf48b21-c2ac-4c1e-91d2-ae3fc7c09672",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":447,"multiChoiceCorrect":449,"multiChoiceIncorrect":451,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[448],"Which of these would be a good example of the anchoring bias being harnessed in advertising?",[450],"Making regular pizzas very expensive, then always putting them on offer",[452,453,454],"Making pizzas more expensive than they need to be","Undercutting your competition with your pizza prices","Opening pizza outlets in locations where consumers have little other choice",{"id":456,"data":457,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"da588c84-2d37-477c-bbc8-3df55ccd9d6b",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":458,"binaryCorrect":460,"binaryIncorrect":462},[459],"When you identify as an environmentalist and that makes you more likely to recycle is an example of...",[461],"Conscious bias",[463],"Unconscious bias",{"id":465,"data":466,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"7033c310-240d-4265-b406-be3ac8d09d5d",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":467,"audioMediaId":468},"Even courtroom decisions are not exempt from bias. In one study, judges rolled a pair of dice to determine the prosecutor’s sentencing demand. Researchers manipulated the dice to favor either high or low rolls. Despite knowing that the demand was arbitrary, judges served sentences impacted by their rolls. The high-anchor group sentenced an average of eight months; the low-anchor group an average of five. The study begs the question – to what extent do irrelevant factors impact courtroom decisions?\n\n![Graph](image://d49689df-62df-4b3f-97ea-816de2a9a6d6 \"A judge. Image: photo taken by flickr user maveric2003, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nTwo leading theories seek to explain anchoring bias. Tversky and Kahneman’s anchoring-and-adjusting hypothesis suggests that, when humans make estimates, we first set a starting point, or an anchor, and adjust accordingly. However, adjustments usually end up being insufficient, leaving us with a final estimate that ends up closer to its anchor than to the target.","a7f900cf-d800-4239-8ab6-e67508dd7c12",{"id":470,"data":471,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":474},"dbf2a2be-78e8-4e89-b3e8-43b11fe4b05e",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":472,"audioMediaId":473},"Meanwhile, the selective accessibility hypothesis explains anchoring as a result of a priming effect. When making judgments, by default, we consider the plausibility of an anchor that is at the top of our mind. Even if the anchor proves incorrect, our mental calculus considers parts of the anchor that seem relevant to the value we are looking for, thus serving as a benchmark for comparative judgement.\n\n![Graph](image://186e9787-2711-4ac8-8652-fa117414ebf5 \"Anchor at the top of the mind. Image: Drparas1, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nNevertheless, studies find that anchoring bias is difficult to avoid, even when incentivized to do so. The best way to overcome this bias, according to experts Thomas Mussweiler, Fritz Strack, and Tim Pfeiffer, is to create counterarguments against an anchor, similar to playing devil’s advocate.","3bdc2221-c931-4863-84a9-fe1a5d272f07",[475],{"id":476,"data":477,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"4ee17d19-73c8-4ea6-98d3-8acae58b7bf8",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":478,"clozeWords":480},[479],"Tversky and Kahneman argue that anchoring can be explained by our tendency to put too much weight on our initial estimates",[481],"estimates",{"id":483,"data":484,"type":41,"version":36,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":486,"introPage":494,"pages":500},"3f549ac1-1905-4973-b9f4-be4ebfcebfd2",{"type":41,"title":485},"Understanding Base Rate Fallacy",{"id":487,"data":488,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"dfa77783-6ef7-4519-b26d-5c9b6af3a886",{"type":27,"summary":489},[490,491,492,493],"Base rate fallacy is when we ignore general statistics and focus on specific details","There are 100 times more salespeople than librarians in the USA","A positive cancer test with 95% accuracy means only an 87% chance of actually having cancer","Iceland's COVID-19 case surge among vaccinated people was misinterpreted due to base rate neglect",{"id":495,"data":496,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"06500e5a-a247-4533-955d-596586b2a6b9",{"type":55,"intro":497},[498,499],"Why is a man more likely to be a shy salesperson than a librarian?","How does base rate neglect affect the interpretation of medical test results?",[501,518,533,538,543,548,563],{"id":502,"data":503,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":506},"6a2f26e2-15ac-4c64-95b3-b2b0c8a5d0ab",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":504,"audioMediaId":505},"The concept of base rate fallacy involves the human tendency to ignore the pre-existing statistical information, and to rely on the information specific to this case. This cognitive bias suggests that, when given a base rate or statistics on a general phenomenon, humans tend to rely more on anecdotal evidence.\n\nLet’s illustrate this with an example. You’re shown a picture of a man, and told that he is a shy man. You then have to guess what his profession is – you are told that he is either a salesman, or a librarian.\n\n![Graph](image://8924ad14-dd71-4527-b4e7-58d0957c625f \"Salesman or librarian? Image: Ana Nichita, Public Domain via Unsplash.\")\n\nStraight off the bat, you’re probably thinking that if all we know about him is that he’s a shy man, a good guess would be that he’s a librarian. But let’s try to think about the base rates – the initial populations that we are working with.","dc02bc87-a160-478d-95ce-e93b4f774eb7",[507],{"id":77,"data":508,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":509,"multiChoiceQuestion":510,"multiChoiceCorrect":512,"multiChoiceIncorrect":513,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":514,"matchPairsPairs":515},[72,75,76],[511],"Which of the following best describes the base rate fallacy?",[85],[81,83,84],[87],[516],{"left":517,"right":85,"direction":27},"Base rate fallacy",{"id":519,"data":520,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":36,"reviews":523},"b89999aa-d9fa-4b49-8275-5040de913407",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":521,"audioMediaId":522},"There are many more salespeople than there are librarians in the general population. In fact, there are 13 million salespeople in the USA. In comparison, there are roughly 130,000 librarians. These are the actual numbers according to Statista, as of 2024.\n\nSo, if we know nothing about this man other than that he’s a US citizen, and either a librarian or a salesman, we can start with the probability he is 100 times more likely to be a salesman. This is because there are 100 times as many salespeople as there are librarians.\n\n![Graph](image://f05493bb-81c8-4c92-ab12-1e3382088545 \"People selling items at a convention. Image: Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nBut what about the fact that he’s shy? Most of us don’t think of salespeople as shy. And we might be right! Let’s assume only 3% of salespeople are shy. Where does this leave us?","876d6219-b8ca-45d6-9422-d1c6f5ee2d4e",[524],{"id":525,"data":526,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"0591defb-9efa-4cc2-85f0-776b9ae1148c",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":527,"binaryCorrect":529,"binaryIncorrect":531},[528],"You're told this statement: 'There is a car in this box. It is very fast. It could be a Nissan, an Audi, or a Bugatti' Which of the following conclusions is NOT displaying the base rate fallacy?",[530],"Statistically, it is more likely to be an Audi or Nissan than a Bugatti",[532],"Bugatti make the fastest car in the world - it's probably a Bugatti",{"id":534,"data":535,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"01a17008-0b28-4510-92f6-e0593d84d183",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":536,"audioMediaId":537},"If we assume 3% of salespeople are shy, then that means there are 390,000 *shy* salespeople in America. That’s still three times as many shy salespeople as there are librarians. And that’s assuming all librarians are shy, which they probably aren’t. If we assume 80% of librarians are shy, that gives us 104,000 shy librarians in America. If we divide 390,000 by 104,000, we end up with 3.75. The man is still 3.75 times more likely to be a salesperson than he is a librarian.\n\nHowever, because we hear the fact that he’s shy, and this is something we associate more with librarians, we jump straight to the conclusion he is one. **We have to remember the base rates**.","fe5ff0bb-f0be-44bf-853f-a1083d7db797",{"id":539,"data":540,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"88a41534-11e9-4928-9d38-93f9cc740ac3",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":541,"audioMediaId":542},"One thing that becomes apparent when we talk about the base rate fallacy is how most people misinterpret statistics. Whether this has more to do with our statistical literacy or with the potentially misleading nature of some statistical statements is up for debate. Some researchers argue that it's a matter of how we phrase statistical questions – some formats are more intuitive than others. All the same, let's have a look at the concepts at play.\n\n![Graph](image://da781741-476c-4df1-86e9-3280bedd7bf5 \"A confusing graphical statistic. Image: Smallman12q, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThe term ‘base rate’ refers to prior probabilities. By extension, this means that we’re dealing with at least two sets of probabilities. When we’re faced with multiple sets of information, according to the base rate fallacy, we tend to favor specific details at the expense of the general. What we should be doing is assessing each statement for relevance, and then integrating the relevant pieces of information to come up with a better prediction. This is where Bayesian probabilities come in.","3228f832-5a90-4942-a2bb-37c86100c3fa",{"id":544,"data":545,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43},"672ca929-72b8-49db-ae67-625fdd684e05",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":546,"audioMediaId":547},"In healthcare, no test is 100% accurate. Most medical tests produce false positives, where a healthy individual is incorrectly diagnosed as ill. Though rare, these occur where the prevalence of the condition being tested is low. And although a false positive is not as dangerous as a false negative – which deprives patients of the treatment they need – it causes unwarranted anxiety and burden.\n\n![Graph](image://a0d3f159-e4da-4dfe-a296-10ee3c8de462 \"A patient being tested. Image: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nTake a medical test that detects cancer with 95% accuracy. The actual prevalence of the condition is five in every thousand, or 0.5%. Say a patient tests positive. We know the test isn’t 100% accurate. How likely is the patient to be ill?","2bccc5f0-f9ef-452e-9d4f-4c3704bd4d5a",{"id":549,"data":550,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"reviews":553},"f585891a-f2e6-4077-ac84-23dd94b58654",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":551,"audioMediaId":552},"Most of us fall prey to base rate neglect and say 95% – after all, that’s how accurate the test is. However, applying Bayes’ theorem, we integrate the two pieces of information – (a) the test is wrong 5% of the time, and (b) any person has only a 0.5% chance of suffering from the condition. Using inferential statistics the actual probability of cancer, given a positive result, is 8.7%, a stark difference from 95%.\n\n![Graph](image://9956a3e9-20ed-4d07-a3a2-55ce060ddd0e \"Doctors looking at an X-ray. Image: \nM Joko Apriyo Putro, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nMisunderstanding statistics due to base rate neglect can cause undue panic and, subsequently, faulty decision-making. Upon seeing a negative earnings report, an investor may pull out their investments prematurely– even if it’s a company’s first quarter in the red following years of steady growth. This dip may just be a blip in the greater scheme of things, but, as the saying goes, sometimes we miss the forest for the trees.","c589fd33-6b33-4ee7-b1d2-479f5a48779e",[554],{"id":555,"data":556,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"a24acd8d-3bbc-4f66-9ed6-6800f9289643",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":557,"binaryCorrect":559,"binaryIncorrect":561},[558],"Identify the base rate in this statement: '0.5% of the population contract leukemia, and leukemia tests are 95% accurate.'",[560],"0.50%",[562],"95%",{"id":564,"data":565,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":36,"reviews":568},"6c4f7754-3380-49be-a2a2-e8619b55c790",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":566,"audioMediaId":567},"In July 2021, eyebrows were raised in Iceland over COVID-19 vaccines. Despite a 71% vaccination rate, Iceland saw a surge in COVID-19 cases, with 67% of infections detected from fully vaccinated individuals. Pundits weaponized this as proof of vaccine ineffectiveness, but they ignored the broader context.\n\n![Graph](image://c23caa82-c768-4bc2-b94c-360eaa95f302 \"A map of COVID-19 cases in Iceland per capita. Image: Bjarki S, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIf 71% of the population was vaccinated, and the vaccine was ineffective, then you’d expect 71% of the new cases to be detected from vaccinated individuals. Instead it was 67%. This means that the vaccines were (likely) having some effect on keeping numbers down. Another factor here is that it was the most at-risk people who were vaccinated anyway – the infection rate among them was always likely to be higher.\n\nThis is a classic example of how base rate neglect can have real-world impacts.","617ec0be-826f-462e-927e-510c7720fbd9",[569],{"id":570,"data":571,"type":29,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27},"bde3811e-3d70-4ccb-910c-39d1f89a9883",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":572,"multiChoiceCorrect":574,"multiChoiceIncorrect":576,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[573],"If 100% of a population is vaccinated, and 20% of the population gets infected, what percentage of new cases would come from vaccinated individuals?",[575],"100%",[577,578,579],"50%","80%","3.5%",{"id":581,"data":582,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":584,"introPage":592,"pages":598},"9d8d5595-9841-4404-9489-4bc3f123465b",{"type":41,"title":583},"The Framing Effect",{"id":585,"data":586,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"e8835e4c-7235-4638-bb51-35f51b1ad975",{"type":27,"summary":587},[588,589,590,591],"The framing effect shows that how we present info matters more than the info itself","We fear losses more than we value gains, leading to risk-averse choices","Availability and affect heuristics make us favor easy-to-recall and emotional info","Positive framing highlights benefits, while negative framing exploits fears",{"id":593,"data":594,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"17ec4493-7732-4140-93fd-d3503944ab94",{"type":55,"intro":595},[596,597],"What is the framing effect?","How does the availability heuristic influence decision-making?",[599,624,639,655],{"id":600,"data":601,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":604},"e36c74eb-3297-4219-b3cd-a6b67f698deb",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":602,"audioMediaId":603},"When trying to win people over, it's not just about what we say. More than that, how we say it is important. One element of effective communication is presenting messages so they resonate with one’s audience. Indeed, marketers are constantly reminded to step inside the consumer’s mind and to reflect the aspirations and frustrations of their target market in their messaging.\n\n![Graph](image://48096831-9438-408c-9978-76ae9da25451 \"Marketing team brainstorming customer needs. Image: Watty62, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThis is consistent with the **framing effect,** which states that, when we make decisions, humans tend to focus on the way information is presented rather than on the information itself. Hence, we have to ‘frame’ our message in a way that directs people’s attention where we want them to focus.","af091970-3f31-4e32-b0f3-64e75857d5fe",[605],{"id":606,"data":607,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"fc166c1d-fd8d-4611-aa99-10d61d0f83bb",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":608,"multiChoiceQuestion":612,"multiChoiceCorrect":614,"multiChoiceIncorrect":616,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":620,"matchPairsPairs":621},[609,610,611],"6ee6cace-8329-4d1a-aa0b-001854bb75a1","41985ba2-c16f-47f6-9cfd-c999fe0b4e57","bc5ef4dd-e48a-4ff7-9c9a-a034e6dab469",[613],"Which of the following best describes the framing effect?",[615],"Tendency to focus on the way information is presented rather than the information itself",[617,618,619],"Tendency to favor information that is easier to recall","Tendency to prefer information that appeals to our emotions","Belief that previous outcomes of a random event can affect the probability of a future event",[87],[622],{"left":623,"right":615,"direction":27},"Framing effect",{"id":625,"data":626,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":629},"580fe2c8-24a8-4551-b175-dc5343812fc5",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":627,"audioMediaId":628},"Unfortunately, this cognitive bias may lead to suboptimal choices when inferior choices are deliberately presented in a positive light. We see this often in product packaging and advertising material. Two products may be identical, but the one that pushes its product benefits more effectively will end up being more successful than its counterpart. Or, a subpar product may word things so as to understate or obscure its flaws.\n\n![Graph](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/Fredmeyer_edit_1.jpg/274px-Fredmeyer_edit_1.jpg \"Products vying for attention in the supermarket. Image: Original:  lyzadangerDerivative work:  Diliff, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nTo help explain the framing effect, Tversky and Kahneman developed the prospect theory, which suggests that we do not perceive potential gains and losses symmetrically. As humans, we fear a potential loss more than we value an equivalent potential gain. In this regard, we lean toward risk aversion. Thus, when faced with two options – a guaranteed $50 versus a 50% chance of receiving $100 – we are likely to choose the first option despite the upside potential of the second choice.","10a46db6-b593-4310-91d4-e6f15c25bccb",[630],{"id":631,"data":632,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"44c54444-f15f-4ec6-a62b-d34afe189973",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":633,"binaryCorrect":635,"binaryIncorrect":637},[634],"Which of these is an example of the framing effect in action?",[636],"Doctors tell patients they have a 90% chance of surviving surgery, rather than a 10% chance of dying",[638],"People tend to forget the prior population figures when considering vaccine effectiveness",{"id":640,"data":641,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"reviews":644},"4bc50b22-b913-42f0-bcb6-cf2b2b196d99",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":642,"audioMediaId":643},"In tandem with prospect theory, our brain reverts to two shortcuts in particular that contribute to the framing effect. The **availability heuristic** refers to our tendency to favor information that is easier to recall – say, simple explanations that require minimal cognitive load. In addition, we prefer information that appeals to our emotions – the **affect heuristic**.\n\nIn sum, when making decisions, the options we lean toward are often those that were framed to highlight potential benefits, minimize risks, stick to the top of our mind, and evoke an emotional response. Framing is widely used in consumer marketing. When we walk down the aisles of a supermarket and see signs like ‘save $50,’ or ‘buy one get one,’ that’s called positive framing – emphasizing what the buyer stands to gain.\n\n![Graph](image://10cd2c02-6e68-4a98-bd2a-feb991066838 \"Bread reduced to clear in a supermarket. Image:Philafrenzy, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nConversely, when we receive marketing emails in our inboxes with headlines like, *'Don’t miss out on this year’s biggest sale!”* or, *'Stop wasting your time on x, y, z,”* that’s negative framing exploiting our fears and frustrations.","e5f8b86a-bda2-4043-b614-44b1518b716c",[645],{"id":609,"data":646,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":647,"multiChoiceQuestion":648,"multiChoiceCorrect":650,"multiChoiceIncorrect":651,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":652,"matchPairsPairs":653},[606,610,611],[649],"Which of the following best describes the availability heuristic?",[617],[615,618,619],[87],[654],{"left":244,"right":617,"direction":27},{"id":656,"data":657,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":660},"1e406bf1-8707-493e-b939-ffb297043ed3",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":658,"audioMediaId":659},"Research suggests that positive framing produces higher conversion rates, but it's not a hard and fast rule. Testing to ensure that messaging resonates with a target audience is still best practice.\n\nSo, how do we avoid letting our biases nudge us into potentially suboptimal decisions? One way is to **slow down our decision-making and seek alternative information** that may be framed differently. We can also examine the choices we make thoroughly, picking apart our rationales for any possible bias.","4a527421-3366-445a-9af5-8a24f56c705f",[661],{"id":610,"data":662,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":663,"multiChoiceQuestion":664,"multiChoiceCorrect":666,"multiChoiceIncorrect":667,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":668,"matchPairsPairs":669},[606,609,611],[665],"Which of the following best describes the affect heuristic?",[618],[615,617,619],[87],[670],{"left":671,"right":618,"direction":27},"Affect heuristic",{"id":673,"data":674,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"orbs":677},"bfb023eb-eed1-432b-a5c8-c3b207052bdb",{"type":28,"title":675,"tagline":676},"Biases Due to Ambiguity","When the human brain is faced with too much information, it compensates for its limited processing capacity using mental shortcuts.",[678,753,829],{"id":679,"data":680,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":682,"introPage":690,"pages":696},"4dba5101-7eda-4e7a-809b-97624c85a18f",{"type":41,"title":681},"The Gambler's Fallacy",{"id":683,"data":684,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"185fefbd-427a-45d6-aaa7-4bab24fee554",{"type":27,"summary":685},[686,687,688,689],"The human brain loves finding patterns to make sense of randomness","Cognitive biases happen when our brain takes shortcuts to simplify the world","The gambler’s fallacy makes us think past random events affect future ones","Random events are independent; past outcomes don't influence future results",{"id":691,"data":692,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"61579de8-618f-4511-809f-354762b7a495",{"type":55,"intro":693},[694,695],"What is the gambler's fallacy?","Why did gamblers at Monte Carlo Casino lose a fortune in 1913?",[697,710,726,743,748],{"id":698,"data":699,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":702},"7af41edb-d7c3-4925-986a-d9f7a84bd7f9",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":700,"audioMediaId":701},"The human brain has an affinity for system and order, and as such seeks patterns to create meaning out of the randomness of everyday life. Pattern seeking is one way that we learn. As children, we discover that, when we place our hands on something hot, we hurt ourselves. When we squabble with a sibling, we get a scolding. Recognizing patterns provides us with a level of predictability and order. We learn to avoid engaging in activities that lead to undesirable outcomes.\n\n![Graph](image://a1b326bc-8396-4624-8fc5-1e33d52cb63a \"A child with a burn on their hand. Image: MrNoble.xyz, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nAnd so, we grow up seeking meaning in the seemingly mundane and arbitrary. That's why, as a species, we love cliches like ‘everything happens for a reason.’ We dislike it when unpredictable things happen for no apparent reason because we yearn to control the world around us.","f2474c1b-ab08-481e-a339-ad1fecc7b48a",[703],{"id":704,"data":705,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"f4964d02-3930-4cef-a27a-39d78344e71d",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":706,"clozeWords":708},[707],"Pattern-seeking is an essential learning tool that can also lead to cognitive biases",[709],"Pattern-seeking",{"id":711,"data":712,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":715},"71cfb9d3-44e5-4b50-8cfa-056153cd41c5",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":713,"audioMediaId":714},"In the process of trying to fit chaos and randomness into neat little boxes that fit into our worldview, our brain takes shortcuts that sometimes end up as cognitive biases. When we try to simplify a complicated world, we end up oversimplifying. This can lead to erroneous decision-making.\n\nImagine that a series of fair coin tosses produces a consecutive sequence of five heads. Is the next outcome more likely to be heads or tails?\n\n![Graph](image://bf72bbc3-1b1d-4084-874c-79ad1e0eab63 \"Coin toss. Image: ICMA Photos, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIt’s a bit of a trick question, isn’t it? Nothing in the previous paragraph provides any hint as to what the next outcome will be. A fair coin toss has an equal chance of producing either heads or tails.","fcb4c441-c6d0-477e-ad2f-b6be4ce7c5e9",[716],{"id":717,"data":718,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"4db0f4e8-6078-4cbd-bbcf-b13bac333c48",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":719,"multiChoiceCorrect":721,"multiChoiceIncorrect":722,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[720],"You toss a coin three times, and it lands heads every time. You toss it one more time. What is the probability that this last toss is heads?",[577],[723,724,725],"25%","75%","85%",{"id":727,"data":728,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":731},"ece8349f-3872-4453-9d63-f567efd9e181",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":729,"audioMediaId":730},"Does it matter that we’ve been seeing heads consecutively? It shouldn’t. But a brain that likes to impose order on the world may tell us otherwise. If it's truly a 50/50 chance at heads versus tails, one might intuit that logic ‘demands’ a tails to appear soon, because six heads in a row is just ‘ridiculous.’\n\nExcept it isn’t, because each coin toss is independent of each other and has no bearing on the next outcome. But when we fall prey to the **gambler’s fallacy**, we believe that previous outcomes of a random event can affect the probability of a future event, even when causality does not figure into the equation.\n\nThe Monte Carlo Casino incident of 1913 best illustrates how operating under the blur of gambler’s fallacy can lead to disaster. At some point during the night, on August 18, 1913, the roulette wheel landed on black for 10 consecutive spins. Believing that a red outcome was overdue, gamblers started betting heavily on red.\n\n![Graph](image://15e78199-e723-4926-bfa4-55aefc9f8cae \"Roulette in the Casino from Monte-Carlo. Image: Sem, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons\")","0b5dfe38-45ce-42d1-ace6-098d2c311e14",[732],{"id":611,"data":733,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":734,"multiChoiceQuestion":735,"multiChoiceCorrect":737,"multiChoiceIncorrect":738,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":739,"matchPairsPairs":740},[606,609,610],[736],"Which of the following best describes the gambler's fallacy?",[619],[615,617,618],[87],[741],{"left":742,"right":619,"direction":27},"Gambler's fallacy",{"id":744,"data":745,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"bd87f716-fcd3-4029-9eb8-977c4ac16d76",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":746,"audioMediaId":747},"The more the wheel landed on black, the more gamblers expected it to go red. As the roulette wheel rebelled against the crowd’s expectations, its audience ballooned in size, and so did their wagers. By the time the gamblers ‘won’ and the wheel finally landed on red, the crowd had collectively lost a fortune to the casino. It took a hot streak of 26 black spins to produce one red outcome.\n\n![Graph](image://bf6b457b-9d55-454d-974f-f4a42eaa2fbd \"Ralf Roletschek, CC BY-SA 3.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThe moral of the story? Random events are just that: random. They are in no way affected by previous events. To think otherwise can lead to catastrophic loss, as the Monte Carlo Casino’s patrons learned that fateful night.","c97edfd0-5bf4-43a0-b027-4e4b651d215e",{"id":749,"data":750,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"f8ebaad1-4159-47c9-b3d2-d23014f59eb6",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":751,"audioMediaId":752},"Besides the go-to examples in gambling, the gambler’s fallacy appears elsewhere in life. Following a streak of bad luck, we might complain, *“There’s no way to go but up now. Things have to turn around soon.”* Unless we’re actively doing something to change our luck, that mindset is symptomatic of biased thinking.\n\nPlaying the stock market is its own brand of gambling too. According to economists, amateur investors *“sell winners too early and hold losers too long,”* squandering their investments. They think that, if a stock price is surging, it's bound to dip soon. They misunderstand the fundamentals of stock prices and fail to see that, although future stock prices are dependent on many factors, past performance is not part of the equation.\n\n![Graph](image://1558cefd-90c5-4bfd-8315-efb8a6b3da4a \"Stock Market Changes. Image: James Smith, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThe line of thinking we see in the gambler’s fallacy betrays our desire for balance and order. We incorrectly expect randomness to somehow reflect the probabilities at hand. To avoid this flawed reasoning, we should ask ourselves why we assume certain causal relationships exist, and whether these expectations are reasonable.","c49eb005-8b96-40b8-b9a2-bf4fcd7f4237",{"id":754,"data":755,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":757,"introPage":765,"pages":771},"d1cc10ad-4cd5-46ee-8f95-7eab723427b6",{"type":41,"title":756},"In-Group Dynamics",{"id":758,"data":759,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"ada30a8e-8b7b-4312-83b6-79274ee41c53",{"type":27,"summary":760},[761,762,763,764],"In-group bias means favoring people in your group over outsiders","William Sumner introduced in-group bias in his 1906 study on ethnocentrism","Social identity theory explains that group membership boosts self-esteem","Cooperation and shared goals can reduce in-group bias",{"id":766,"data":767,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"03f1b621-dc21-4903-a7d0-24e52c0ad9e0",{"type":55,"intro":768},[769,770],"Who introduced the concept of in-group bias?","How can forced cooperation reduce in-group bias?",[772,777,794],{"id":773,"data":774,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"0aab3dac-052c-4064-bc7a-1b9d44f2b43f",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":775,"audioMediaId":776},"There’s almost an unwritten rule in team sports that fans of rival teams shouldn’t fraternize with each other. The same can be said of fervent supporters of political candidates during election periods. We treat individuals within our group with kindness and respect, and those outside our group with just that bit more skepticism and, perhaps, condescension.\n\nIt’s not a case of shared values or culture, nor is it a matter of camaraderie or shared experience. **In-group bias** – where we display preferential treatment for members of our in-group – can be observed even in the most arbitrary and meaningless of groups.","ba952a13-c7a8-474e-8193-6e7bddc62495",{"id":778,"data":779,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":782},"867050c1-6978-4f81-944b-3ced6b083f6d",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":780,"audioMediaId":781},"In-group bias can go beyond merely favoring our group members. It manifests itself in the unfair treatment of individuals in the out-group, and can even see us engaging in immoral acts for the benefit of our in-group. At its worst, it can result in actively harming outsiders – for example, hate crimes against minorities. When left unchecked, widescale in-group bias can lead to social injustice.\n\nThe concept of in-group bias was first introduced by sociologist William Sumner in his 1906 study on ethnocentrism. He pointed out how humans tend to form groups, where *'each group nourishes its own pride and vanity, boasts itself superior, exists in its own divinities, and looks with contempt on outsiders.'* On a grander scale, this in-group bias is what he referred to as ethnocentrism.\n\n![Graph](image://33579228-d582-4dd4-8a60-a69445a92cf2 \"William Graham Sumner. Image: William Graham SumnerEditor Albert Galloway Keller, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")","88ad795f-bf7a-4fe2-9b5f-868bc430b3f7",[783],{"id":784,"data":785,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"940fecc5-4a8b-4eaf-879d-aa4e58980818",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":786,"multiChoiceCorrect":788,"multiChoiceIncorrect":790,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[787],"If you refuse to spend time with supporters of a rival football team, which cognitive bias could be responsible?",[789],"In-group bias",[791,792,793],"Out-group homogeneity bias","Confirmation bias","Self-serving bias",{"id":795,"data":796,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":799},"5a1a2c30-1b24-4c6c-ade8-f4a62ae379f8",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":797,"audioMediaId":798},"Social identity theory provides insight into why this tendency exists. Being part of a group contributes to our concept of self. A woman, a mother, a nurse, a Muslim – these are all social categories that help us form a self-image and piece together our role in larger society.\n\nBut why do we, as members of social groups, hold such strong biases in favor of our in-groups? It’s because we humans like to feel good about ourselves. Being part of a group we take pride in elevating our self-esteem. But if we take that a few steps further, it may lead to putting down out-groups for the sake of elevating our in-groups.\n\nAffinity to our in-groups is healthy, but we have to be able to keep in-group bias under control lest it transforms into prejudice and discrimination against the ‘other.’ Bending rules for people in our social groups, allocating a larger portion of limited resources to our in-groups, mistreating and mistrusting others who are not part of our circle, and considering ourselves superior to others who aren't like us – these behaviors have serious consequences when left unchecked, such as structural inequality, institutional racism, and violence against women.\n\n![Graph](image://22fe9e6c-c65f-4685-9c6e-39e8ca548406 \"Two social groups divided. Image: BeenAroundAWhile at en.wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nStudies suggest that one way to reduce the impact of in-group bias in group dynamics is to provide clear incentives for working together. A 1950s study by Muzafer Sherif demonstrates that forced cooperation and a shared goal can help to reduce the effects of in-group bias. Through repeat interactions with members of an out-group, an individual’s in-group may shift and expand to include the out-group.","084cee4e-0f94-4d4b-a0c9-e83127128492",[800,811,818],{"id":801,"data":802,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"813f1a60-73da-4389-9588-d99eca4de3c7",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":803,"multiChoiceCorrect":805,"multiChoiceIncorrect":807,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[804],"Why do humans hold such strong biases in favor of their own in-groups?",[806],"It boosts our self-esteem",[808,809,810],"It ensures our survival","It enhances our intelligence","It improves our physical health",{"id":812,"data":813,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"ab1ab0e3-bf91-4b87-915c-9c9c146a7925",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":814,"activeRecallAnswers":816},[815],"What method to help overcome in-group bias did Muzafer Sherif demonstrate in his 1950s study?",[817],"Forced cooperation between different groups towards a shared goal.",{"id":819,"data":820,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"8e4c480a-c2fe-4c30-ac9c-52e642ab5faa",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":821,"multiChoiceCorrect":823,"multiChoiceIncorrect":825,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[822],"What term is used for the idea that humans tend to form in ethnic groups and believe in the superiority of their own group?",[824],"Ethnocentrism",[826,827,828],"Eurocentrism","Anthropocentrism","Sinocentrism",{"id":830,"data":831,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":833,"introPage":841,"pages":847},"f823860d-4cee-4192-abf7-57bb9a5fe293",{"type":41,"title":832},"The Just-World Hypothesis",{"id":834,"data":835,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"fe01253d-c297-4d6b-8466-c6ede455c5e0",{"type":27,"summary":836},[837,838,839,840],"The just-world hypothesis is the belief that the world is fair and people get what they deserve","Dr Melvin Lerner's research showed that even kind, intelligent people can blame victims due to just-world beliefs","We learn the just-world mindset as children through stories and reinforcement","Strong belief in a just world can blind us to social injustices and hinder empathy",{"id":842,"data":843,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"7ed4ca35-7af3-4a7d-ac41-8f325d731777",{"type":55,"intro":844},[845,846],"What is the just-world hypothesis?","How did Dr. Melvin Lerner's observations influence his research on justice beliefs?",[848,863,878],{"id":849,"data":850,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":853},"687bfb6b-dd63-4e85-bf83-47baf6d16f2b",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":851,"audioMediaId":852},"One of the most disheartening things to witness when a sexual assault complaint goes public is when victim blaming occurs. Instead of being offered empathy, the victim is questioned about what they could have done differently to ‘protect’ themselves. Maybe if they dressed more conservatively, drank judiciously, had acted less flirty that night?\n\n![Graph](image://07e24f84-8f4f-42b4-92f1-a31fab965f9b \"Pointing an accusing finger. Image: Lachlan Hardy, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThough most people are not prone to making such callous suggestions, psychology does provide insight into why some people engage in victim blaming. The just-world hypothesis refers to the belief that the world is fair, and, thus, whatever happens to us is well-deserved. If we do good, we are rewarded. If we do bad, we are punished. So, when misfortune befalls someone, we justify this by looking for some flaw – *“He has cancer because he doesn't watch what he eats”* – focusing on personal traits instead of situational factors.","213db017-00b0-45a0-b16d-d20ce167f945",[854],{"id":855,"data":856,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"10465edf-e911-4164-aefc-6ac3f4db97c4",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":857,"binaryCorrect":859,"binaryIncorrect":861},[858],"Which of these is a potential consequence of believing the just-world hypothesis?",[860],"Victim blaming",[862],"Lower crime",{"id":864,"data":865,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":868},"f57e3121-801a-4119-8af5-2d312af04dbb",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":866,"audioMediaId":867},"Dr. Melvin Lerner’s formal research on a just-world mindset is credited for bringing attention to the topic. During his training as a psychologist, Lerner was intrigued by what he saw. Though the healthcare practitioners he worked with were kind and intelligent, they did not extend the same kindness to the patients under their care. In fact, the psychologists were often critical of their patients. This observation kicked off Lerner’s studies on justice beliefs.\n\nOur belief in a just world, according to Lerner, is functional. A just world suggests a predictable world – one in which our actions dictate their consequences. Thus, it gives us a semblance of control and protects us from helplessness, ultimately benefitting our mental wellbeing.","589f3726-2dd9-48cf-9099-b177e69f77ff",[869],{"id":870,"data":871,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"5f047da3-39de-4cd7-822d-85a960d8c646",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":872,"binaryCorrect":874,"binaryIncorrect":876},[873],"According to Melvin Lerner, why do we tend to believe in a just world?",[875],"We like to think our actions have consequences",[877],"Due to the lasting influence of religious belief",{"id":879,"data":880,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":883},"7862eab0-3f89-4078-a9f4-0fedc7bdc0e5",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":881,"audioMediaId":882},"We don’t come into this world expecting that it is fair. But, as children, we are socialized into this worldview. We hear stories about heroes that punish villains for their misdeeds, and we are taught, through positive and negative reinforcement, about the consequences of our actions. For better or worse, we bring this theory into adulthood.\n\n![Graph](image://23d91b6f-8e0b-4b6a-8d62-7ed836ae5750 \"Hero vs. villan comic. Image: C. C. Beck, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nA just-world mindset starts as functional and adaptive, but holding on too tightly to this belief is like wearing blinders. When we assume that another person’s suffering is their own doing, we turn a blind eye to the circumstances that may have contributed to the situation. When we say that all poor people are lazy, we ignore the social structures that perpetuate inequity and the mechanisms that keep poor people poor. We disregard how many low-income people work exponentially longer, more back-breaking jobs than millionaires.\n\nStrong belief in a just world impacts our justice system and social support structures. When our perception of the world tells us that everyone gets what they deserve, we fail to see where our systems need changing. When we come to accept that the world may not always be fair, only then can we move toward empathy and a kinder sense of justice.","ff062d64-b61b-4234-a63e-67ba04a4f8ba",[884],{"id":885,"data":886,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"9ca2c6c6-b147-4e01-bf64-895cdd4e99b3",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":887,"binaryCorrect":889,"binaryIncorrect":891},[888],"In a population where 73% are vaccinated, if 67% of infections are detected from fully vaccinated individuals, does it mean that the vaccines are completely ineffective?",[890],"No",[892],"Yes",{"id":894,"data":895,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":898,"orbs":899},"23b1c1a3-b1a5-46fe-9dad-c61f4e660295",{"type":28,"title":896,"tagline":897},"Biases Due to Urgency","Humans create their own stories to fill in gaps where meaning is lacking, resorting to generalizations and simplifications as a way of adapting.",6,[900,999],{"id":901,"data":902,"type":41,"version":36,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":904,"introPage":912,"pages":918},"feac3226-e409-442a-a068-29f3423b3293",{"type":41,"title":903},"Introduction to Decision-Making",{"id":905,"data":906,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"459be94b-e2c1-4444-83f5-046f44c77dcc",{"type":27,"summary":907},[908,909,910,911],"The brain simplifies decision-making by focusing on the present and overestimating our abilities","The fundamental attribution error makes us think actions reflect personal traits, ignoring situational factors","Edward Jones and Victor Harris's 1967 experiment showed people judge others' opinions based on assigned essay positions","Misjudging actions due to fundamental attribution error can lead to unfair stigma and poor decision-making",{"id":913,"data":914,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"f47c353c-3223-4157-9e1d-a96625bc22af",{"type":55,"intro":915},[916,917],"What's the fundamental attribution error?","Why did participants in the 1967 Jones and Harris experiment misjudge the essay writers' true opinions?",[919,932,949,964,977,982],{"id":920,"data":921,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"reviews":924},"5036432b-9e86-41c8-a4cf-bafd668fed72",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":922,"audioMediaId":923},"Daily living entails an endless list of decisions we need to make, ranging from the mundane (what I want for lunch) to the life-changing (whether I should marry this man). Some decisions are straightforward, requiring only a simple yes or no; others pose a seemingly infinite set of options.\n\n![Graph](image://b9795c29-6cf7-44f7-8994-946c7aac3245 \"Yes no decision box. Image: KKPCW, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWith the constant barrage of questions that need answering and decisions that need making, the human brain uses a number of techniques to expedite decision-making. We gravitate towards the safety of simplicity rather than the uncertain and complex. We are inclined to overestimate our abilities so that we are armed with the confidence to act. We zero in on what's in front of us instead of worrying too much about a distant, hypothetical future. And we finish the things we start, sometimes with a doggedness that defies rationality.","3a19a52a-2f94-4f21-a24d-b56aa4525487",[925],{"id":926,"data":927,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"bd72638b-f22b-4114-8de6-c80a78c891ce",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":928,"activeRecallAnswers":930},[929],"Why are we inclined to overestimate our own abilities?",[931],"To give us the confidence to act",{"id":933,"data":934,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":937},"90f36043-ba20-4f5a-acff-22477e3dd139",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":935,"audioMediaId":936},"Are high-performing students successful at school because they are smart? Without giving it too much thought, most people would agree that they are. As humans, we are prone to associate high performance with competence and vice versa. We look at others’ actions and assume that these reflect how they are as people, ignoring the contexts and circumstances that may have driven them. This cognitive bias is called the **fundamental attribution error**.\n\nIt’s why we automatically think that students who earn consistently good grades are intelligent. Maybe they are, but it could just as easily be because they work hard and have good study habits. Or they might come from a background of privilege or have a robust support system outside of school.","61246b30-070f-4ec4-9b9c-8e2afc877262",[938],{"id":939,"data":940,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"9dd770d8-ec1d-4450-bf36-785373e2b84a",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":941,"multiChoiceCorrect":943,"multiChoiceIncorrect":945,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[942],"What is the fundamental attribution error?",[944],"We are prone to attributing people's successes to their character",[946,947,948],"We are prone to attributing people's successes to cheating","We are prone to attributing people's successes to luck","We are prone to attributing people's failures to luck",{"id":950,"data":951,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":954},"739643b2-9782-42ec-8215-e9d81f5fd44c",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":952,"audioMediaId":953},"Though reality is often complicated and driven by countless external factors, the human brain likes simplicity. And so, we tend to overemphasize people’s personal traits when assessing their actions, even if situational factors are more likely to blame – or thank – for what they do.\n\nA classic example of the fundamental attribution error is the 1967 experiment by Edward E. Jones and Victor Harris. This study asked individuals to write essays on Fidel Castro and assigned them to take either a positive or negative view.\n\n![Graph](image://7e3cdc86-62e1-4880-836f-541ec56aa3a7 \"Fidel Castro. Image: Public Domain via Wikimedia\")\n\nAnother set of participants then read these essays and rated how each writer felt about Castro. Writers assigned to take a positive stance were judged pro-Castro, while those who wrote against him were rated anti.","56cbb95a-d4de-4b6b-aeb2-506078376944",[955],{"id":956,"data":957,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"5632f10e-127e-4477-b254-f12e00018738",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":958,"binaryCorrect":960,"binaryIncorrect":962},[959],"What was shown by the Castro experiment?",[961],"People view others' actions as a result of their fundamental beliefs rather than other factors",[963],"People are generally aware that someone's actions are not necessarily indicative of their beliefs or character",{"id":965,"data":966,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":969},"adba31e1-c343-4223-9fd7-e8e8b0216608",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":967,"audioMediaId":968},"The same assessments persisted even after subjects found out that writers were merely assigned a position to take. They ignored the external factors influencing the essay and stuck with their assumption that each essay was consistent with and indicative of their corresponding author’s personal opinions on Castro.\n\nOne reason behind the fundamental attribution error could be unawareness of the situations driving others’ behavior. But even taking this out of the equation, reasoning out why people act the way they do requires cognitive load. It is easier to assume that people do things because it's just ‘the way they are.’","f9fdedfc-8b1b-4824-9978-96595a694f0f",[970],{"id":971,"data":972,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"015099ba-1dab-473f-beeb-64f2b0110cb0",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":973,"clozeWords":975},[974],"One reason for the fundamental attribution error is that it reduces cognitive load",[976],"cognitive load",{"id":978,"data":979,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43},"5b193a33-0b66-4f79-b408-f6c72f08f65b",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":980,"audioMediaId":981},"Failure to see past the lens of the fundamental attribution error can lead to incorrect and unfair judgments. People do not always engage in objectionable behavior just because they want to. Their actions may be a product of circumstance. If we do not afford others generosity in judgment, unfair assessments can turn into stigma.\n\nConsider individuals struggling with substance abuse. They get a bad rap for ‘not helping themselves.’ If they internalize that their addiction stems from an innate personality trait, what hope do they have of overcoming it? If we do not acknowledge the barriers to their progress, how can we address systemic issues and provide proper support?\n\n![Graph](image://c94c2dd6-5048-4d7f-bb38-240654659cc1 \"Man holding a a needle. Image: Attribution is to be given to Rehab Center Parus. When using on the Web, a link to https://rebcenter-moscow.ru is appreciated., CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","b4d31be3-8bdf-4eb2-afcd-e1614832e4ae",{"id":983,"data":984,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":987},"c90ae912-8a5a-436c-813e-a3a926257367",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":985,"audioMediaId":986},"Conversely, associating good performance with competence without recognizing context can also be dangerous. Compare a mediocre salesperson who operated in a high-growth market versus a colleague who hustled tirelessly in a challenging environment.\n\nConflating the former’s sales performance with innate capability rewards the wrong employee if they are promoted over the latter. When the mediocre manager must navigate tough markets in the future, the company will suffer.","5bce1c7c-4205-4473-8d7f-6d5d034f3095",[988],{"id":989,"data":990,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"b7634855-9c19-4805-aa82-6ebd6393068c",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":991,"multiChoiceCorrect":993,"multiChoiceIncorrect":995,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[992],"Why can the fundamental attribution error be harmful for addicts?",[994],"Because it suggests that people's nature is set in stone",[996,997,998],"Because it causes people to underestimate the impact of drugs","Because it leads people to take riskier decisions","Because it leads people to attribute drug deaths to other factors",{"id":1000,"data":1001,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1003,"introPage":1011,"pages":1017},"2263b891-5291-42b8-86ad-8d17de2f942e",{"type":41,"title":1002},"Hyperbolic Discounting and Its Effects",{"id":1004,"data":1005,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"fe6b77a2-d470-4e67-bdfe-5752341b3303",{"type":27,"summary":1006},[1007,1008,1009,1010],"Hyperbolic discounting makes us choose immediate rewards over long-term benefits","West Virginia's dropout rates fell when driving permits were revoked for dropouts","Companies and governments often prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability","The sunk cost fallacy makes us stick with failing projects because of past investments",{"id":1012,"data":1013,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"9ce2f5fd-e036-44da-9599-37576881222c",{"type":55,"intro":1014},[1015,1016],"What effect did revoking driving permits have on West Virginia's high school dropout rates?","How does the sunk cost fallacy influence financial decision-making?",[1018,1043,1056,1061,1076],{"id":1019,"data":1020,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1023},"5d295b1f-8fab-4b9c-bd7c-9865eb138137",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1021,"audioMediaId":1022},"Humans love instant gratification, so much so that we opt for immediate rewards over long-term benefits, even when the latter is objectively preferable. Or at least, the concept of **hyperbolic discounting** says that we tend to do so.\n\nIsn’t that why, instead of investing this month’s extra cash into a retirement fund, we treat ourselves to a nice dinner? Why we choose to put off until tomorrow that chore we have been avoiding all week? Or why scientists clamoring for climate change action are constantly being ignored – because doing something now entails additional expense, even though leaving it until the next decade might be exponentially more costly, but at least that’s a problem for the future?\n\n![Graph](image://85ea49e5-2e7e-4bfb-9ec6-cf8e9e762a8a \"Scientist presents at a local climate summit. Image: \nMaryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\n  HTML\")\n\nFrom the lens of hyperbolic discounting, the future is a hazy, hypothetical concept where we magically get around to doing all the things we have been putting off. Meanwhile, the here and now deserves our full attention and enjoyment. Which is why, when we compare options, immediacy can play a deciding role when other variables are more or less comparable.","127e8366-0012-406d-921c-27dbb9124c53",[1024],{"id":1025,"data":1026,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"7f891e41-9743-4a7b-9877-e9b91b080714",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1027,"multiChoiceQuestion":1031,"multiChoiceCorrect":1033,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1035,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1039,"matchPairsPairs":1040},[1028,1029,1030],"5162742f-b387-424d-a268-63b75bdc5094","667bdc67-3bbb-41f0-9c75-b98093aa044b","a954dabb-7dcb-4590-a811-979c812b4ee9",[1032],"Which of the following best describes hyperbolic discounting?",[1034],"The tendency to choose smaller, immediate rewards over larger, later ones",[1036,1037,1038],"Tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made","Tendency to think an unpredictable event was easy to predict","Tendency to remember past experiences in a snapshot manner",[87],[1041],{"left":1042,"right":1034,"direction":27},"Hyperbolic discounting",{"id":1044,"data":1045,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1048},"69bfaec5-d2e1-4c84-9813-9c2db7c389b5",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1046,"audioMediaId":1047},"What do driver’s licenses have to do with high school dropout rates? Apparently, according to George Loewenstein and Richard H. Thaler’s 1989 paper *Anomalies*, they make a good pair for demonstrating how hyperbolic discounting works – at least in the context of late 1980s West Virginia. When the state passed a law revoking driving permits of school dropouts under the age of 18, it saw dropout rates fall by a third. The economists surmised that such a staggering effect could only be caused by what they called ‘extremely myopic preferences.’\n\nOur ‘temporal myopia’ makes us focus on the here and now because the hypothetical future is uncertain. But when the consequences of our actions are immediate, as in the West Virginia example, we may reconsider our choices. Conversely, when it comes to receiving a reward, our risk aversion sees us wanting to secure a gain immediately, even if it means sacrificing a small portion of its size. Perceptually, the farther away a reward is to be received, the smaller in value it appears.","17e8b71e-90bb-4403-9b70-bf31f62406a6",[1049],{"id":1050,"data":1051,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"e24f0c59-8e9a-4924-9354-520a7e6b0f3b",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":1052,"clozeWords":1054},[1053],"Temporal myopia makes us focus on the here and now because the hypothetical future is uncertain.",[1055],"Temporal myopia",{"id":1057,"data":1058,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"b24aa8b3-c33d-4d4f-adc4-1a66d621638f",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1059,"audioMediaId":1060},"When we sacrifice too much of the long term in favor of the present, we fail to invest in long-term outcomes that benefit us – be it our financial security, physical health, or mental wellbeing in later years.\n\nWhen organizations prioritize short-term profit over anything else, their flawed decision-making jeopardizes their own long-term prospects and sustainability. We see this mindset in companies where middle management is constantly under pressure to outperform themselves month after month. Management focuses on looking good now, as there is no point in planting seeds for the future when one will have already moved on to greener pastures by the time their efforts bear fruit.\n\nThe same goes for governments of the day who care about getting re-elected. They focus on currying favor with their constituents instead of making sound long-term plans and programs that truly benefit the public. A government with such a myopic view ultimately does a disservice to its people.","9c2e9653-9170-4aa4-a575-d4b58cd57263",{"id":1062,"data":1063,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1066},"ef5d0b99-6116-4892-a199-a3089b7c1798",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1064,"audioMediaId":1065},"Advice columns often feature toxic friendships and relationships where one party knows that the dynamic isn’t working but they've just invested too much time and effort to walk away. *“I’ve known this person since I was a toddler. She’s my oldest friend,”* or, *“I can’t just give up on a 10-year relationship.”* This line of thinking is symptomatic of the **sunk cost fallacy**.\n\n![Graph](image://045b80c6-0b6b-46c6-90da-6b93d1a0fb57 \"Advice column from an old newspaper. Image: Jess, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nClose relationships are naturally difficult to break off – it pushes us out of our comfort zones. But the regret and guilt we feel over walking away from something we’ve invested time and effort on comes from cognitive bias. Instead of weighing up future costs against the benefits we anticipate by maintaining status quo, we fixate on the past – resources we have already expended and can no longer recoup whether we stay or leave.\n\nSo, the mental equation has to consider two variables – what it costs to stay and what we gain from staying. Regardless of how this equation works out, sunk cost is irretrievable and, therefore, irrelevant to the equation – a mere distraction, so to speak.","c39be6ab-e7aa-44c7-9f7f-3658e73f7852",[1067],{"id":1068,"data":1069,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"f8df377e-099d-4c04-895c-825e19bcb2d2",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1070,"multiChoiceCorrect":1072,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1073,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1071],"Which cognitive bias may be at play when leaders in an organisation prioritise short term profit over anything else?",[1042],[243,1074,1075],"Fundamental attribution error","Loss aversion",{"id":1077,"data":1078,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1081},"e2d899d7-bb5a-4782-b52e-474f8cdaf661",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1079,"audioMediaId":1080},"The sunk cost fallacy frequently plays out in financial decision-making. We embark on projects with optimism. Along the way, challenges sober us up. We may eventually realize that our undertaking will not deliver as expected. In such cases, a rational decision requires an objective assessment of the situation.\n\nUnfortunately, we are less rational than we think we are. This irrationality explains why some government projects persist even when sustaining them no longer makes sense. These programs waste taxpayers’ money – the resources could be diverted to more deserving projects. Likewise, companies sometimes throw more funds into failing business units in the misguided optimism that tides will turn and they will recoup their investment.\n\n**Loss aversion** is partly to blame for these scenarios – the notion that investments in a project are not 'lost' as long as it keeps running. We also see a narrative of failure, of giving up prematurely. All this highlights how tricky stay-or-leave decisions can be because we have to contend with feelings of pride, loss, and discomfort on top of the objective considerations required of us.\n\n![Graph](image://933761ff-ffb0-460c-bf99-fbc5f64b6321 \"Graph depicting loss aversion. Image: Laurenrosenberger, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","f56a5bac-cb46-4003-a607-e1bb1e96e6b2",[1082],{"id":1028,"data":1083,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1084,"multiChoiceQuestion":1085,"multiChoiceCorrect":1087,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1088,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1089,"matchPairsPairs":1090},[1025,1029,1030],[1086],"Which of the following best describes the sunk cost fallacy?",[1036],[1034,1037,1038],[87],[1091],{"left":243,"right":1036,"direction":27},{"id":1093,"data":1094,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"orbs":1097},"d4a073d6-45bf-42fc-a2aa-e1ebf4320a04",{"type":28,"title":1095,"tagline":1096},"Biases Due to Selective Remembrance","Taking the time to deliberate on every decision we make can be exhausting and time-consuming. There are shortcuts for that – shortcuts aplenty.",[1098,1173],{"id":1099,"data":1100,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1102,"introPage":1110,"pages":1116},"dddeeb5b-2c6d-4fdd-b4ab-02127dac5a77",{"type":41,"title":1101},"Understanding Human Memory",{"id":1103,"data":1104,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"67c38672-c5f4-4365-8cbe-7f339b300512",{"type":27,"summary":1105},[1106,1107,1108,1109],"Human memory is prone to errors due to cognitive biases","Confirmation bias makes us favor evidence that supports our beliefs","We avoid information that challenges our self-esteem and identity","Awareness of biases helps us practice critical thinking and make better decisions",{"id":1111,"data":1112,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"c79e99dc-7f4c-4ac4-bee0-ee6240dd548d",{"type":55,"intro":1113},[1114,1115],"What did Peter Wason's 1960 experiment reveal about human thinking?","How does confirmation bias protect our self-esteem?",[1117,1130,1143,1156],{"id":1118,"data":1119,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1122},"dc49c4f7-f42b-45d0-836a-68186d959e41",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1120,"audioMediaId":1121},"Human memory is a tricky thing. Recent studies have suggested that it can be surprisingly accurate, yet, for some time now, the consensus has been that memory can be inconsistent, unreliable, and ever-changing. True enough, we carry some cognitive biases that result from limitations in the way we encode, store, or retrieve information from our memory.\n\n![Graph](image://84067c2f-ef57-4927-8b60-4b42ecc3fb4f \"Illustration depicting memory recall. Image: Wesxdz, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nFor example, we are prone to simplifying observations into generalities, shedding away the extra weight of specifics. We trim down experiences into their most crucial components. And even after we have locked information away into the depths of our minds, we continue to edit them, consciously or not, so that every time we retrieve them from storage, they look just a little bit different than they did before.","f3561a14-645f-4c4e-bca4-13c4b0ba87c3",[1123],{"id":1124,"data":1125,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"e872355f-f07f-4e25-8691-d7efcf90d8c8",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1126,"binaryCorrect":1128,"binaryIncorrect":1129},[1127],"Human memory is great at accurately storing information.",[164],[166],{"id":1131,"data":1132,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1135},"8368c13f-8647-4536-9e22-332278534efd",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1133,"audioMediaId":1134},"The concept of **confirmation bias** dates back to the Greek historian Thucydides, who opined, *'For it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy.'*  To this day, humans engage in the questionable habit of favoring evidence that conforms to our existing beliefs.\n\n![Graph](image://9e11cf8b-906f-49fa-a1d3-185a45ffe546 \"Thucydides. user:shakko, CC BY-SA 3.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIn 1960, cognitive psychologist Peter Wason demonstrated how humans seek not to disprove their beliefs and hypotheses but to prove what they already believe. Research subjects had to identify the logical rule behind a number series – 2, 4, 6. They then created their own series of three numbers to test if their theory was correct (e.g. 8, 10, 12). They were then allowed to provide another series of numbers, to further test.\n\nHowever, instead of fielding guesses that explored a wide range of options – by choosing numbers that fit their initial hypothesis and those that did not – most participants only gave numbers conforming to the rule they wanted to prove. Most subjects failed the task because they could not see past their hypothesis; making no effort to disprove it or consider other options.","efab7644-8cd2-43d8-b4ce-ded26e5bb466",[1136],{"id":1137,"data":1138,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"96cf41a2-7ff4-4901-8262-56a9cc608877",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1139,"multiChoiceCorrect":1141,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1142,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1140],"Which cognitive bias demonstrates the human tendency to prove existing beliefs as opposed to disproving them?",[792],[243,1074,1075],{"id":1144,"data":1145,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1148},"4c2bbd5c-3650-4231-8257-ffb78ebf70f3",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1146,"audioMediaId":1147},"There’s a certain satisfaction in being right. It strokes our ego and boosts our self-esteem. Conversely, we do not like being told we are wrong because our self-esteem takes a beating. So, to protect our self-confidence, we seek out information that aligns with our beliefs.\n\nSome opinions we maintain can turn into deeply held beliefs over time, potentially forming part of our self-identity. When these beliefs are challenged, it can feel like the very core of our being is likewise under threat. This unease further heightens our need to be correct because being wrong could send us into an existential crisis.\n\nUltimately, confirmation bias is a mental shortcut meant to expedite information processing. We save mental resources by simply reaffirming existing beliefs instead of exploring alternative views. It protects us from the need to acquaint ourselves with new ways of seeing and thinking about a topic – a win for efficiency.","13c990d6-a2c2-4d5f-9257-d8dcef0b8229",[1149],{"id":1150,"data":1151,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"59bc317a-84a1-4b87-9e00-7bbf8c0f3209",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":1152,"clozeWords":1154},[1153],"Confirmation bias can partly be attributed to our need to boost self-esteem",[1155],"self-esteem",{"id":1157,"data":1158,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1161},"ec4a373e-0927-495a-9163-e744c7cb2f47",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1159,"audioMediaId":1160},"Failure to consider viewpoints that do not align with our own can cause us to overlook crucial details that could affect our decision-making. If our view on important matters is restricted by willful blindness, we cannot make truly informed choices.\n\nConfirmation bias can have a significant impact on individuals. Take someone who chooses to only see the positive qualities of a romantic partner and turns a blind eye to red flags. This individual may end up staying in an abusive or otherwise unhealthy relationship. On a wider scale, confirmation bias can affect the level of public discourse and impact social and political issues.\n\nThough we might not be able to eliminate confirmation bias from our lives, being aware of it allows us to take active steps in widening our lens. We can start to practice critical thinking by being genuinely open to alternative viewpoints, questioning our research, and relying only on credible sources of information.","2b8d1a8e-5085-4e0f-bcb3-400870361c56",[1162],{"id":1163,"data":1164,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"4cb8ebe0-95a9-477b-9588-74f93a9d8558",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1165,"multiChoiceCorrect":1167,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1169,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1166],"Which of these would be an example of confirmation bias:",[1168],"Ignoring the negative qualities in your partner",[1170,1171,1172],"Attributing your partner's good qualities to their character","Staying with your partner because you think you can change them","Learning to love your partner, including their flaws",{"id":1174,"data":1175,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1177,"introPage":1185,"pages":1191},"0f051c6b-0ea4-4a02-b40f-25b1720293fc",{"type":41,"title":1176},"Biases in Memory and Decision-Making",{"id":1178,"data":1179,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"c6ea8789-d632-48b6-8fba-f61b8edc7600",{"type":27,"summary":1180},[1181,1182,1183,1184],"Hindsight bias makes us think we 'knew it all along' after an event happens","The peak-end rule means we remember the most intense and final moments of an experience","Hindsight bias can lead to overconfidence and risky decisions","Ending experiences on a high note can make us more likely to repeat them",{"id":1186,"data":1187,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"7304dcda-ddb0-4f40-bd53-2a3a41aa5f33",{"type":55,"intro":1188},[1189,1190],"What is hindsight bias?","How can the peak-end rule affect our memories of past experiences?",[1192,1207,1223,1247],{"id":1193,"data":1194,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1197},"670b0b1e-2ba2-40af-a9a5-7ffa0449e94d",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1195,"audioMediaId":1196},"In 1975, President Richard Nixon flew to Beijing and Moscow. Before that happened, researchers Baruch Fischhoff and Ruth Beyth-Marom rounded up a few participants for an experiment. Subjects had to predict the likelihood of a range of outcomes for Nixon’s trip. After the President’s return, the participants were called back, this time to reconstruct their earlier guesses. With the benefit of hindsight, the subjects’ ‘predictions’ had shifted to more closely reflect what had actually occurred.\n\n![Graph](image://d71bcd3a-2da8-4a66-af90-68b0b2050bbc \"Richard Nixon. Image: Oliver F. Atkins, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nFischhoff and Beyth-Marom’s study was one of the first on **hindsight bias**. Also called the ‘knew-it-all-along’ effect, this bias refers to our tendency to reflect on an unpredictable event and think that the outcome was actually easy to predict. According to psychologists Neal Roese and Kathleen Vohs, hindsight bias involves three elements – misremembering our initial opinions, a false belief that what transpired was inevitable, and confidence in our ability to have predicted the event.","a579c514-0bac-40f5-a9ba-16b0b9966a9a",[1198],{"id":1199,"data":1200,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"4f2dad6a-8167-4000-83c5-8c4586dde7be",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1201,"binaryCorrect":1203,"binaryIncorrect":1205},[1202],"Which bias is sometimes known as the 'knew-it-all-along effect'?",[1204],"Hindsight Bias",[1206],"Confirmation Bias",{"id":1208,"data":1209,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1212},"9c3ec999-b343-44f3-98ee-ebf0a551fc6e",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1210,"audioMediaId":1211},"Why do we engage in hindsight bias? We distort our memories and falsely believe we ‘knew it all along’ because we feel safer in a predictable world with clear-cut cause-and-effect mechanics.\n\nThough hindsight bias seems harmless, experts warn that it may lead to overconfidence in our ability to predict future events. This unfounded confidence may then nudge us to pursue unwarranted risks when we incorrectly assess certain situations.\n\nAdditionally, when we trick ourselves into thinking that we predicted things correctly, we fail to acknowledge our error. This denial robs us of the chance to examine and learn from our decision-making flaws.\n\nTo avoid committing hindsight bias, we can keep a decision journal, or a log of past decisions and the corresponding expectations for each choice. This provides us an objective record to refer to in the future. Experts also advise running through a list of what-could-have-beens after our predictions are proven wrong. This way, we remind ourselves that what transpired was actually not inevitable, and we can rid ourselves of the illusion that we knew it all along.\n\n![Graph](image://396c15d4-0165-4ee7-af25-8a42b369203f \"A thought folio decision journal. Image: Captain MarcusL, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","20683237-d74e-4747-a545-7d9294eab118",[1213],{"id":1029,"data":1214,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1215,"multiChoiceQuestion":1216,"multiChoiceCorrect":1218,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1219,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1220,"matchPairsPairs":1221},[1025,1028,1030],[1217],"Which of the following best describes Hindsight Bias?",[1037],[1034,1036,1038],[87],[1222],{"left":1204,"right":1037,"direction":27},{"id":1224,"data":1225,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1228},"c9d0511b-30e0-483a-b6dc-617d169776b9",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1226,"audioMediaId":1227},"When you look back on your college years, what do you remember? Most people might think about the nervous excitement of starting a new identity, the anxiety-ridden all-nighters, the carefree nights partying with friends, and the joyful optimism of graduation.\n\n![Graph](image://eb326ebe-f582-4505-acfc-02931a8637b0 \"Graduation hats being thrown in celebration. Image: AKS.9955, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWhen we look back on memories, we do not think about that specific time of our life in complete detail, like a movie reel, from end to end. Our mind retrieves snapshots that it deems important – the most emotionally charged moments, the start, and the end. The tendency to remember past experiences in this manner is called the **peak-end rule**, and it shows how, to a certain extent, our memories are biased.\n\nFor example, studies show that mothers’ memories of childbirth are tempered by the result – a beautiful baby, cherished and loved. No matter how painful labor was at its worst, the mind focuses on the peak pain and the final moment, averaged together.","24e833bd-693d-4120-b905-7061fce34023",[1229,1240],{"id":1030,"data":1230,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1231,"multiChoiceQuestion":1232,"multiChoiceCorrect":1234,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1235,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1236,"matchPairsPairs":1237},[1025,1028,1029],[1233],"Which of the following best describes the Peak-end Rule?",[1038],[1034,1036,1037],[87],[1238],{"left":1239,"right":1038,"direction":27},"Peak-end Rule",{"id":1241,"data":1242,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"7172a1a3-158b-497c-9472-a6fdbdb9ce79",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":1243,"activeRecallAnswers":1245},[1244],"We tend to remember the start, end, and most emotionally charged moments, of events. What is this called?",[1246],"The peak-end rule",{"id":1248,"data":1249,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"d5a7e18d-7189-4555-939b-9d2687f4d408",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1250,"audioMediaId":1251},"The peak-end rule distorts our memories, sometimes to our benefit, sometimes not. It allows us to look back on ‘better’ times with rose-colored glasses. Reframing the past positively may boost our mental wellbeing – unless doing so keeps us stuck in the past and checked out of the present. Someone who suffers trauma from a previous doctor’s visit may avoid check-up sessions for years. This can have serious health implications if left unaddressed.\n\nConscious of how our memory works in this way, we can use it to our advantage. To compensate for a mediocre date, end it on a high by enjoying an indulgent dessert. Don’t abruptly stop exercise sessions or chores day. Instead, practice a gradual end with a cool-down or a less excruciating chore, respectively. This makes us less likely to drag our feet the next time we have to do it again.\n\nAs a corollary, if you ever decide to open a restaurant, remember that dessert can be a decisive course. Just as first impressions matter, so too does our last point of contact with customers.","05555c87-cd9c-4c15-8331-56537c837362",{"id":1253,"data":1254,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"orbs":1257},"11d0a1c2-c787-4610-babd-3303d64e579f",{"type":28,"title":1255,"tagline":1256},"Cognitive Bias in Everyday Context","The breadth of information we encounter daily challenges our brain’s limited memory capacity. As such, the brain optimizes storage capacity using a few mental tricks.",[1258,1344,1440],{"id":1259,"data":1260,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1262,"introPage":1270,"pages":1276},"8941744d-d1bb-4e42-b353-29d5619be6b4",{"type":41,"title":1261},"Biases in the Real World",{"id":1263,"data":1264,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"7daae024-33a7-486b-8be8-c9d68234428b",{"type":27,"summary":1265},[1266,1267,1268,1269],"Cognitive biases like the peak-end rule and framing effect shape our everyday decisions","Social media algorithms create filter bubbles that reinforce our existing beliefs","We often follow and like content that aligns with our views, creating echo chambers","Misinformation spreads easily online, exploiting our cognitive biases",{"id":1271,"data":1272,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"b2b9dde0-072e-497a-8e20-c097574301fe",{"type":55,"intro":1273},[1274,1275],"What is the 'filter bubble' and who coined the term?","How do social media algorithms influence our worldviews?",[1277,1290,1303,1319],{"id":1278,"data":1279,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1282},"e6dc075f-cf69-4bc4-98ff-e125be96c2f4",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1280,"audioMediaId":1281},"Cognitive bias can reach far and wide and entrench itself deep in our unconscious if left unchecked. Completely eradicating it is an impossible task and not necessarily something we should aim to do. But, in many aspects of life, making better decisions requires addressing the flaws in our reasoning. Doing so starts with acknowledging how unconscious biases cloud our thinking and color our perception.\n\nAs can be seen with biases like the peak-end rule, the framing effect, and hyperbolic discounting, understanding how our patterns of thinking play into everyday decisions allows us to leverage them for our benefit. Properly used, our biases can nudge us into making better choices.","0eafb69d-a0af-41a6-a30d-19b5562191e7",[1283],{"id":1284,"data":1285,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"b6095447-9fe7-44e2-8ceb-8c55038ec914",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1286,"binaryCorrect":1288,"binaryIncorrect":1289},[1287],"It is possible to hack cognitive biases to nudge yourself towards making better choices.",[892],[890],{"id":1291,"data":1292,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1295},"5ebcba57-c46c-49f0-98db-125cb482287e",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1293,"audioMediaId":1294},"Understanding how cognitive bias affects different aspects of our lives sets us up to better address them. Awareness of others’ biases provides us insight into the behavior of others around us. This knowledge allows us to avoid unwanted behavior by using mitigation strategies available at our disposal.\n\nWhen the Internet started to grow in popularity, pundits rejoiced at how it would revolutionize how the world shared information. Indeed, most of us can effortlessly jump on the Internet and read about any random topic we want, but whether we as a society have reached an information utopia is debatable. If we look at how increasingly polarized politics has wreaked havoc in some countries, one might ask if we aren't in fact growing more disconnected from each other.\n\n![Graph](image://cdd68e98-f9ca-4ecb-8b91-a561e95fdce2 \"Image depicting an internet information utopia. Image: Paowee, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","d8730dd8-ff35-44ff-843e-5060043f686c",[1296],{"id":1297,"data":1298,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"15230f64-c983-42d5-93f5-10faa0866ad3",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":1299,"clozeWords":1301},[1300],"Despite improving people's access to information, the internet has also left us more disconnected from one another",[1302],"disconnected",{"id":1304,"data":1305,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1308},"b0997813-fb11-4d3a-8333-17efe8dca708",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1306,"audioMediaId":1307},"It’s not just a matter of wildly disparate opinions either; we disagree with each other about what constitutes fact. That information sharing has become so frictionless and accessible allows just about anyone with a mobile phone or computer – and Internet access – to become a content creator. The information we consume and spread on social media need not come from a subject matter expert. It might be a random stranger’s late-night thoughts, written with an air of authority. Worse, it could be a bad actor intentionally posting ‘alternative facts’ to prey on our gullibility – and our cognitive biases. *Do you believe what you are reading now?*\n\nConspiracy theories and misinformation predate the Internet. But our current landscape lets us indulge in selective interactions more than ever. We ‘follow’ or ‘like’ thought leaders that share our convictions, and we ‘mute’ or ‘unfollow’ conflicting views. Customizing our news feeds lets us construct silos, where we are safe from the discomfort of cognitive dissonance. Tethered to our in-groups, we can nod in agreement and engage in groupthink.\n\n![Graph](image://784956ca-2398-49af-ad0d-f365ead774df \"Illustration of misinformation sharing. Image: Werner Huth, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons\")","a99a1a50-3dbb-4f57-ad10-456d6c34b8f2",[1309],{"id":1310,"data":1311,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"5f06f805-d74f-49e0-89b7-5a388cadf332",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1312,"multiChoiceCorrect":1314,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1315,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1313],"Which cognitive bias can social media especially encourage?",[789],[1316,1317,1318],"Out-group bias","Up-group bias","Down-group bias",{"id":1320,"data":1321,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1324},"793018bb-06ae-4114-9e47-eb67aa5d6c67",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1322,"audioMediaId":1323},"Aside from internal biases, social media algorithms confine us in a self-fulfilling loop. Internet activist Eli Pariser coined the term ‘filter bubble’ to highlight how algorithms shape worldviews. In *Filter Bubbles*, Pariser explains how two people performing the same Google search can receive wildly different results. Algorithms take our search history, extrapolate a persona, and feed back results that supposedly reflect our values.\n\n![Graph](image://4b8a6a8b-7a06-45c9-9935-f2ae3e8ff814 \"Eli Pariser, author of The Filter Bubble. Image: Knight Foundation, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nThe longer we keep to our silos, the higher the walls around us. To quote author and academic Lee McIntyre, *“We are all beholden to our sources of information. But we are especially vulnerable when they tell us exactly what we want to hear.”*","3b70fbf6-1ba3-43de-ba98-12d950002192",[1325],{"id":1326,"data":1327,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"73d0e542-7c49-4d75-9152-48c269837a48",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1328,"multiChoiceQuestion":1332,"multiChoiceCorrect":1334,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1336,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1340,"matchPairsPairs":1341},[1329,1330,1331],"9b16635e-9148-49f0-8daa-59cd0ab2693d","19486c46-b055-4f88-aa35-20857566bae7","bf4be840-e03c-4b55-b191-72cc78a876a9",[1333],"Which of the following best describes the term 'Filter Bubble'?",[1335],"A state of intellectual isolation due to personalized search results",[1337,1338,1339],"The process of items reducing in quantity while their prices remain the same or increase","Form of indirect protection from infectious disease","Biases that describe the human tendency to place greater weight on negative consequences",[87],[1342],{"left":1343,"right":1335,"direction":27},"Filter Bubble",{"id":1345,"data":1346,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1348,"introPage":1356,"pages":1362},"1600299b-e64a-4d5a-813c-59b4adbbe87a",{"type":41,"title":1347},"Information Sharing and Cognitive Bias",{"id":1349,"data":1350,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"630bc799-32c6-4865-ace7-4ba328f51fcc",{"type":27,"summary":1351},[1352,1353,1354,1355],"Cognitive biases can polarize political views and manipulate public opinion","The 2007 financial crisis was fueled by overconfidence, loss aversion, and hyperbolic discounting","Marketers use cognitive biases like the mere-exposure effect and loss aversion to influence consumer behavior","Free trials exploit the endowment effect and hyperbolic discounting to convert users into paying customers",{"id":1357,"data":1358,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"c553a9f2-4bff-44fd-8109-2fcb56050676",{"type":55,"intro":1359},[1360,1361],"How do politicians use the peak-end rule to influence voters?","What cognitive bias explains why investors kept buying houses before the 2007 crisis?",[1363,1378,1401,1425],{"id":1364,"data":1365,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1368},"0cbd3911-f4ad-4138-aab7-ddaf48920788",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1366,"audioMediaId":1367},"Politics is another area heavily impacted by cognitive biases. Public opinion can be manipulated by encouraging polarization of sociopolitical views; appealing to emotions, especially our fears; and selective reporting of information. Our political ideologies are integral to our self-identity. We cling to existing beliefs and trust potentially suspect news sources – so long as they align with our views. And we are hypercritical of those who stand on the other side of the political fence.\n\nAs political views shift further apart, differences in opinion can devolve into mistrust and hostility. Unchecked, the political divide becomes personal, no longer focused on ideologies or even the goal of nation building. The peak-end rule and availability heuristic can also benefit unscrupulous politicians running for re-election. They ‘behave’ in the months leading to elections, pull some PR stunts to garner the sympathy of the electorate, then revert to old ways once they secure another term in office. After all, voters care about the issues of the day. Misdeeds from years past are easy to forgive when they are not fresh in the mind.\n\n![Graph](image://595bf846-6ae3-4ad5-a9d1-0c0ed81bf7a8 \"Group of women collect to vote. Image: Bagassi Koura (VOA), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")","d5cf046e-965f-4da4-aa2c-8be6c56fe33b",[1369],{"id":1370,"data":1371,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"3f32b452-c79d-4d52-9756-dd1d62be9626",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1372,"multiChoiceCorrect":1374,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1376,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1373],"When politicians behave well, just prior to an election, which cognitive bias do they hope will impact their electorate?",[1375],"Peak-end rule",[1377,243,792],"Survivor bias",{"id":1379,"data":1380,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1383},"cc7e8fae-2ea0-41b0-8d51-185a364f33e7",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1381,"audioMediaId":1382},"Numbers dominate the financial world – monetary figures, interest and discount rates, probabilities for different outcomes. Quantitative models guide decision-making in investment banks and financial firms, but ultimately, humans make the final call. In 2007, the US housing bubble burst. The global financial crisis that followed resulted from a complex interaction of factors culminating in a perfect storm, including cognitive bias, of course – thanks to the human element.\n\n![Graph](image://4c767ab0-d478-44c2-b805-af8fa0ff642d \"People queue outside a UK bank to withdraw savings during the global financial crisis. Image: Lee Jordan, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nFirst was investors’ overconfidence that housing prices would appreciate infinitely. They had seen the historical trend and predicted future growth based on past performance – symptomatic of the gambler’s fallacy. With the expectation of massive gains, investors took out mortgages, which they defaulted on when the bubble burst and prices dropped. Suffering sizable losses, investors rid their portfolio of ‘risky’ assets, triggered by loss aversion. This selling spree caused a further dip in prices, worsening the burgeoning crisis. On the side of institutions, hyperbolic discounting explains why bankers accepted an excessive level of long-term risk; the prospect of massive immediate gains blinded them to what would eventually transpire.","7155a938-947a-4dad-91bd-d46adc199648",[1384,1394],{"id":1385,"data":1386,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"005e2d19-5364-40cc-a8a7-ecaac8347d2e",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1387,"multiChoiceCorrect":1389,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1391,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1388],"Investors' overconfidence in the housing market was based in which fallacy?",[1390],"The gambler's fallacy",[1392,1075,1393],"The sunk-cost fallacy","The slippery slope",{"id":1395,"data":1396,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"fe40d966-0479-480e-9cf2-f9026c20b3ce",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1397,"multiChoiceCorrect":1399,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1400,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1398],"Which cognitive bias explains why bankers were willing to take long-term risks?",[1042],[1390,1075,1393],{"id":1402,"data":1403,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1406},"af862b0a-21f4-4660-8d51-92de7970957f",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1404,"audioMediaId":1405},"Between the early 2000s to mid-2010s, behavioral economics garnered three Nobel Prize wins. As ‘cognitive bias’ became a buzzword, marketers gleefully counted the ways in which businesses could leverage our collective biases to better market to consumers. Some practices we see in consumer marketing nowadays are applications of concepts from cognitive bias. Others have been in use long before psychologists and behavioral economists gave them a name.\n\nTake the mere-exposure effect, which refers to people’s tendency to prefer the familiar – what they are exposed to. Household names like Coca-Cola and McDonald’s continue to invest heavily in advertising because constant exposure to them makes us more likely to regard them in a positive light. The phenomenon of shrinkflation applies the concept of loss aversion. Instead of raising prices, businesses opt to reduce the size of a product to cover additional costs. This way, consumers do not hurt at the prospect of higher prices – a loss from our perspective.\n\n![Graph](image://918e4bc1-eace-433d-8c28-e70878763479 \"Shrinkflation example, Toblerone with larger gaps. Image: Ashley Pomeroy, CC BY 3.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","cfc366c2-3283-49fe-a714-0ae97cb6824d",[1407,1418],{"id":1329,"data":1408,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1409,"multiChoiceQuestion":1410,"multiChoiceCorrect":1412,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1413,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1414,"matchPairsPairs":1415},[1326,1330,1331],[1411],"Which of the following best describes shrinkflation?",[1337],[1335,1338,1339],[87],[1416],{"left":1417,"right":1337,"direction":27},"Shrinkflation",{"id":1419,"data":1420,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"76c67fe2-38cb-4aa0-a7f5-e19eb5e26394",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":1421,"activeRecallAnswers":1423},[1422],"Our preference for the familiar is taken advantage of by what type of commercial activity?",[1424],"Consumer marketing",{"id":1426,"data":1427,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1430},"2aa90ec9-f6c0-41ac-b139-33942cf28314",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1428,"audioMediaId":1429},"Consumers’ fixation on price means that they will sooner notice a price increase than a size reduction. Businesses use free trials to capture potential customers who have one foot in the door. Most people won’t refuse a free trial, and, once they’re enjoying a service, they will likely place a higher value on what they already consider theirs – the endowment effect. When the trial lapses, the odds of them paying for the service are higher. Some trials require a credit card to sign up. Once the trial lapses, users who do not cancel their subscription will find their credit card automatically charged.\n\n![Graph](image://105c656e-19b1-4664-bd9a-dab9acd57cf8 \"Gym-goer making use of a free trial membership. Image: \nCastleislandman1, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIt’s an annoying feature for individuals interested only in the free trial, but it is a clever application of hyperbolic discounting. The consumer wants to avail of the free subscription immediately, so they’ll worry about the inconvenience of unsubscribing later. If they forget to do so, the company makes money. Alternatively, say the user confirms their subscription. The service sends them a quick email to affirm what a good choice they've made. It’s a simple implementation, but the reassurance makes the user feel good about their decision, effectively leveraging on confirmation bias.","9038e341-23dd-41da-ba01-95d575db593f",[1431],{"id":1432,"data":1433,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"eff0a874-e41b-4d4e-908b-c62f7b260038",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1434,"multiChoiceCorrect":1436,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1438,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1435],"Which of these do consumers typically notice first?",[1437],"Price increases",[1439],"Size reductions",{"id":1441,"data":1442,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1444,"introPage":1452,"pages":1458},"d1531218-de7e-4e94-bff6-c1a1d052b974",{"type":41,"title":1443},"Cognitive Bias in Crisis Situations",{"id":1445,"data":1446,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"5ac9974c-670e-4621-a5f6-b495f09c7b3b",{"type":27,"summary":1447},[1448,1449,1450,1451],"Normalcy bias makes us ignore disaster warnings because we hate bad news","Governments often overlook future threats due to optimism bias","Vaccine hesitancy is fueled by confirmatory and availability biases","Misdiagnosis in hospitals often happens due to confirmation and anchoring biases",{"id":1453,"data":1454,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"9a8dd6bc-1e33-4922-945d-a727e43dd2e8",{"type":55,"intro":1455},[1456,1457],"What are the six biases identified in The Ostrich Paradox that prevent disaster preparedness?","How can the availability bias affect vaccine hesitancy?",[1459,1464,1489,1508,1521],{"id":1460,"data":1461,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"fcd58eaa-2ba8-49d3-877a-62b7ab34d8ea",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1462,"audioMediaId":1463},"Scientists worldwide had been sounding the alarm on an impending virus by the time COVID-19 became a global problem. But their warnings fell on deaf ears, and countries were blindsided. The same story can be said of other disasters. Massive floods, wildfires, and earthquakes – while we cannot predict them with complete accuracy, they are usually a question of when, not if. We know we should prepare for them. But most of the time, we do not.\n\n![Graph](image://4f5b67b6-05e5-4457-bc4d-f763bdf042c3 \"Crew inspect damage after a powerful tsunami. Image: Lorn Cramer, CC BY-SA 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nCognitive bias is a mental barrier to disaster preparedness. The normalcy bias or ostrich effect sees humans avoiding negative information because we are averse to loss and risk. We take a stance of denial and focus on the positive instead.","c19176b1-9fb5-4de2-8524-95895ad87791",{"id":1465,"data":1466,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1469},"3fdb4d96-2f09-440a-89b2-f3c50b34f427",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1467,"audioMediaId":1468},"One can argue that governments operate on limited resources. Should they budget for a hypothetical future disaster, or should they fund programs that address more urgent problems? When weighing the options for such a dilemma, avoiding the optimism bias is crucial. Otherwise, we might discount the threat of a future danger in favor of a current crisis.\n\n![Graph](image://0dd6d4bc-1401-4fdb-b1cf-3457319626d9 \"A parliamentary debate. Image: Scottish Government, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIn their book *The Ostrich Paradox*, Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther identify six biases that prevent us from sufficiently preparing for disaster – myopia, amnesia, optimism, inertia, simplification, and herding. When things are calm and trouble is nowhere to be seen on the horizon, we tend to focus on short timeframes and forget about the importance of investing resources for the long term. We forget about past catastrophes and the lessons they impart on us, and, because we have the luxury of temporal distance, we downplay the likelihood of potential future threats. As such, we choose the easy way out. We maintain the status quo.","5f5a2c58-fbe4-472e-b7c8-be805547a2f1",[1470],{"id":1471,"data":1472,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"43cd827e-34c7-43b3-963b-34e98828c342",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1473,"multiChoiceQuestion":1477,"multiChoiceCorrect":1479,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1481,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1485,"matchPairsPairs":1486},[1474,1475,1476],"682e2477-3bfe-4c40-a2fb-5f576fd014e5","3776de99-10ec-439f-a650-a5129887c437","77cc739a-2721-4730-9807-e3f50d7e56f9",[1478],"Which of the following most accurately describes The Ostrich Paradox?",[1480],"Book about cognitive biases",[1482,1483,1484],"Framework for mitigating cognitive biases, includes five categories of bias","Tool for decision-makers to check for undue influence of bias","Behavioral science tool, policy design guide",[87],[1487],{"left":1488,"right":1480,"direction":27},"The Ostrich Paradox",{"id":1490,"data":1491,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1494},"5b60b71e-a8d1-4fe3-bd24-74ffeae39671",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1492,"audioMediaId":1493},"Even when we take the time to consider potential disasters, we tend to simplify them and take a narrow view of matters. When looking at a hypothetical situation laced with uncertainty, the distance and unfamiliarity of the situation allow complexity and nuance to fall by the wayside. And so, we may instead choose to copy what others around us are doing, because, as they say, there’s safety in numbers.\n\nIn humanity’s quest to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine uptake has been a hot issue. Governments and epidemiologists have tried to get as much of the population vaccinated and boosted, but goals set for achieving herd immunity have largely been scrapped, despite best efforts to encourage compliance.\n\n![Graph](image://8473e924-b34b-489f-8383-c6bfe929f70d \"Global map showing covid-19 vaccine uptake per country. Image: Our World In Data. See Wikipedia: Our World in Data., CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","3ae9a105-a184-4a6f-a6d3-5788113b567d",[1495],{"id":1330,"data":1496,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1497,"multiChoiceQuestion":1498,"multiChoiceCorrect":1500,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1502,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1504,"matchPairsPairs":1505},[1326,1329,1331],[1499],"Which of the following best describes herd immunity?",[1501],"A form of indirect protection from infectious disease",[1335,1337,1503],"Biases from our tendency to place greater weight on negative consequences",[87],[1506],{"left":1507,"right":1338,"direction":27},"Herd immunity",{"id":1509,"data":1510,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1513},"f7b5b509-d1e4-453f-a14a-0097498bdcf1",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1511,"audioMediaId":1512},"To address vaccine hesitancy due to mistrust, for example, organizations sought to demonstrate transparency by releasing reports on adverse effects. The goal was to show skeptics that vaccines were safe and that incidence of adverse reactions was low. This plan failed to consider two cognitive biases.\n\nFirst, a skeptic’s propensity to seek confirmatory information meant that, when they read about adverse events, regardless of low incidence, they fell further into the belief that vaccines were indeed unsafe. Second, reading detailed reports on adverse reactions created a vivid picture of what could go wrong. Having this imagery in one’s mind can trigger the availability bias, which means that this information – potential risks of getting vaccinated – would weigh heavier on someone’s mind when deciding to get vaccinated.\n\n![Graph](image://2b42ba72-35dc-4a66-9bc6-9761948865f1 \"An anti-vaccination activist holds a sign at a rally. Image: Fibonacci Blue from Minnesota, USA, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")","85437255-05fa-4368-bcbb-1af2f098def8",[1514],{"id":1515,"data":1516,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"51ca007c-7726-4e99-8f8c-da2abbeeb0c7",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":1517,"activeRecallAnswers":1519},[1518],"What bias could be triggered by reading accounts of surgery going wrong before you have surgery?",[1520],"Availability bias",{"id":1522,"data":1523,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1526},"5640a00e-3c24-45f0-a64d-6d5e0c6e8ae9",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1524,"audioMediaId":1525},"Cognitive bias impacts heavily on healthcare, with potentially grave consequences. According to The Joint Commission, many sentinel events – adverse events resulting in patient death or severe injury – are caused by unconscious biases. Errors in diagnosis specifically account for 6–17% of adverse events in hospitals.\n\n![Graph](image://f6658044-30a8-42fd-9fb3-dd672139b0e3 \"A physician examines a patient. Image: Unknown photographer, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIn the hospital setting, we often see confirmation bias operating in tandem with the anchoring bias. When a patient first recounts their symptoms, their physician forms a first impression. This first impression then becomes the anchor to which further testing and evaluation are conducted. As humans, we tend to seek confirmation of what we believe. Some physicians fail to consider and test for alternative diagnoses. Meanwhile, others may cling to an incorrect diagnosis despite evidence pointing to other probable causes. Unfortunately, misdiagnosis can lead to delayed treatment, further injury, or death.\n\nHealthcare workers are often time-poor and overworked. Whether consciously or not, they rely on mental shortcuts. This reality highlights the importance of a system's approach in tackling bias and minimizing human error so that stakeholders can enjoy better outcomes.","28e15fde-6f83-49ae-b3df-4b6776c575d0",[1527],{"id":1528,"data":1529,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"6a12ff45-32c7-4d58-a9ee-74f3be632152",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1530,"multiChoiceCorrect":1532,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1534,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":21,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1531],"What two cognitive biases are most likely to impact medical diagnosis?",[1533,792],"Anchoring effect",[244,1535,1536],"Overconfidence effect","Hindsight bias",{"id":1538,"data":1539,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"orbs":1542},"0a2ddcff-fea8-4053-82fa-e95757120069",{"type":28,"title":1540,"tagline":1541},"Mitigating Bias with Halvorson and Rock’s SEEDS model","Much is said about the repercussions of unchecked cognitive biases. This tile examines how cognitive bias impacts different aspects of our everyday lives.",[1543,1636],{"id":1544,"data":1545,"type":41,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1547,"introPage":1555,"pages":1561},"102665ee-e8c3-49a6-a5dd-f91ed1175568",{"type":41,"title":1546},"The SEEDS Model",{"id":1548,"data":1549,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"eb966093-b7ec-4f11-994c-5bd096966173",{"type":27,"summary":1550},[1551,1552,1553,1554],"The SEEDS model helps tackle bias by categorizing it into similarity, expedience, experience, distance, and safety","Similarity bias can be reduced by broadening in-groups and removing biasing info from hiring materials","Expedience bias is mitigated by slowing down decision-making and breaking down complex problems","Experience bias is countered by encouraging the exchange of ideas and seeking outsider opinions",{"id":1556,"data":1557,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"32fa7ebf-40e6-4608-89fa-eefdd4533674",{"type":55,"intro":1558},[1559,1560],"What are the five categories of bias in the SEEDS model?","How can organizations mitigate similarity bias in recruitment?",[1562,1579,1605,1618,1631],{"id":1563,"data":1564,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1567},"c3f4a5e6-81c0-4f2d-a894-46a0b863b7f7",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1565,"audioMediaId":1566},"Most literature on cognitive bias provides mitigation strategies piecemeal. But, when we engage in decision-making, it is impractical to dissect each flawed line of thinking before applying individual strategies to address them. \n\nSocial psychologist Heidi Grant-Halvorson and leadership expert David Rock’s *SEEDS model* offers an alternative approach to mitigating bias. The framework provides five ‘brain-based’ categories of bias – similarity, expedience, experience, distance, and safety – and offers corresponding debiasing strategies for each, focusing on the organizational or systems level.\n\nThe SEEDS model entails three steps. First is acknowledging and accepting the universality of bias among individuals and realizing that they lie underneath the surface, whether we are conscious of them or not. The second step sees individuals anticipating and labeling any bias that might creep into the decision-making process. \n\nIn this step, we are encouraged to use the categories provided by the model so as to avoid being intimidated by the overwhelming number of cognitive biases. The final step involves implementing mitigation strategies that relate to each category.","43003169-8fcb-4391-bcc1-98faaf89237b",[1568],{"id":1569,"data":1570,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"b2f8db57-6d85-4f23-b720-cb53c4c9ae7d",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":1571,"activeRecallAnswers":1573},[1572],"In the context of mitigating cognitive biases, what does the acronym SEEDS stand for?",[1574,1575,1576,1577,1578],"Similarity","Expedience","Experience","Distance","Safety",{"id":1580,"data":1581,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1584},"47be1573-6adf-44de-b8a3-209cbe97d8dd",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1582,"audioMediaId":1583},"Under the SEEDS model, **similarity** relates to our preference for our in-groups, people with whom we share commonalities. By extension, it also encompasses the out-group bias, which describes our negative perception of individuals beyond our in-group. This type of bias is common to all, but requires special attention in an organization's recruitment and promotion activities.\n\nInstead of futile resistance against our base instinct, removing opportunities for bias to creep in may prove an effective mitigation strategy. Across the board, we can broaden our affiliations and bring more people into our in-group so as to level the playing field. \n\nIn terms of recruitment and evaluation, hiring managers are encouraged to remove potentially biasing information from materials up for review so as to minimize the impact of stereotypes on decision-making. Joint evaluations – say, assessing prospective employees’ qualifications side-by-side – may also help by refocusing our attention toward individuals’ capabilities.\n\nComparing individuals head-on based on pertinent details minimizes the need to resort to stereotypes such as gender or race to fill in information gaps that we might encounter with separate evaluations.","221b84f8-fb9c-44cd-8e75-060243a5626d",[1585,1594],{"id":1586,"data":1587,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"bec576b8-bb27-4154-8695-995ade9c997e",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1588,"binaryCorrect":1590,"binaryIncorrect":1592},[1589],"Which of these is an important step for mitigating biases?",[1591],"Anticipating and labelling biases as they occur",[1593],"Working towards bias-free thinking",{"id":1474,"data":1595,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1596,"multiChoiceQuestion":1597,"multiChoiceCorrect":1599,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1600,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1601,"matchPairsPairs":1602},[1471,1475,1476],[1598],"Which of the following most closely applies to the SEEDS model?",[1482],[1480,1483,1484],[87],[1603],{"left":1604,"right":1482,"direction":27},"SEEDS model",{"id":1606,"data":1607,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1610},"f5f39898-af2b-4d0d-9c52-0813e4a41240",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1608,"audioMediaId":1609},"Biases under the **expedience** category arise when our automatic, instinctive decision-making mechanism (system 1) fails us. In our rush, we make poor decisions based on our limited understanding of situations. \n\nTo avoid expedience biases, we have to hit the brakes on our decision-making and engage our more deliberate, rational system 2. Organizations that want to minimize expedience biases can encourage employees to slow down their thought processes by relaxing deadlines and lightening workloads or providing incentives that encourage careful deliberation.\n\nManagers can exercise subordinates’ critical reasoning by asking them to walk through thought processes leading to their decisions. Breaking down complex problems into smaller components not only prevents individuals from feeling overwhelmed but also slows down thinking by forcing decision-makers to examine each of the parts that make up the whole. \n\nFinally, a literal slowdown can be built into processes by imposing a mandatory cool-off period prior to finalizing decisions. This way, action steps can be re-evaluated with fresh eyes before receiving a final stamp of approval.","e8b9720d-dd6c-4784-913e-2449f85cbde5",[1611],{"id":1612,"data":1613,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"e60a4acc-30fa-432c-8c1e-b8b83041d014",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1614,"multiChoiceCorrect":1616,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1617,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1615],"An employee has just one day to file 5 reports. As a result, he only reports on the data that confirms his existing biases. What category would this bias fall into?",[1575],[1574,1576,1577],{"id":1619,"data":1620,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1623},"6d3424c1-76d1-4b68-ba21-b92b889f892e",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1621,"audioMediaId":1622},"**Experience biases** relate to how humans can get caught up in their own perception of reality, in turn failing to realize how our personal histories, our biases, and our emotional state color our perception. This bias category includes the fundamental attribution error, hindsight bias, and illusion of transparency. By default, we move through the world thinking that what other people see is the same as what we see. We are, after all, the main characters of our lives.\n\nStepping outside of our heads requires conscious effort, but failing to do so prevents us from considering other perspectives and, thus, impacts our decision-making ability. Mere awareness of experience biases does not help us to avoid them. Instead, organizations seeking to mitigate the effects of this bias type need to set up systems that encourage the exchange of ideas. Seeking outsider opinion, for example, allows organizations to appreciate issues with a fresh set of eyes.","f6046e31-aa20-4eab-a36c-d5f2a9d9d0a3",[1624],{"id":1625,"data":1626,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"21effbbe-7a73-43e0-894d-721a866faaea",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1627,"multiChoiceCorrect":1629,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1630,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1628],"Which category does the hindsight bias fall into?",[1576],[1574,1575,1577],{"id":1632,"data":1633,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"87ddd0ee-3119-4964-ab36-cb09a31ba149",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1634,"audioMediaId":1635},"Humans place more value on objects in proximity, whether closer physically or closer in time. This is the primary mechanism behind cognitive biases like the endowment effect (our tendency to regard what we already own as more valuable than otherwise) and hyperbolic discounting (our preference for immediate gains over long-term rewards with the equivalent or greater value).\n\nAllowing our decisions to be swayed by **distance biases** may produce suboptimal decisions, as organizations that focus disproportionately on the short term fail to plan for a longer time horizon. An unwarranted preference for choices within physical proximity may limit our options and cause us to forego better – though distant – opportunities.\n\nTo limit the impacts of distance bias on decisions, organizations can take physical and temporal distance out of the equation when comparing potential outcomes. For example by removing locations as a piece of information when deciding between 2 alternatives. Doing so levels the playing field for the options at hand and allows for a closer comparison without the undue influence of distance.","ed7cac9a-34eb-4cda-9d12-1b532a14ff71",{"id":1637,"data":1638,"type":41,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1640,"introPage":1648,"pages":1654},"c80aeed4-c94c-4e2d-9db0-d102a59ee57f",{"type":41,"title":1639},"An Organizational Perspective",{"id":1641,"data":1642,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"ac062382-b6fc-4b84-9228-1c06a9958aa9",{"type":27,"summary":1643},[1644,1645,1646,1647],"Safety biases make us overvalue negative outcomes and undervalue positive ones","Psychological distance helps us see decisions more clearly and less emotionally","Bias is universal; self-awareness can help reduce it","Group efforts and systems are key to effectively tackling cognitive bias",{"id":1649,"data":1650,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"9d4eeecf-61d6-4442-81f9-2d7673fbb00b",{"type":55,"intro":1651},[1652,1653],"What is the sunk cost fallacy?","How can psychological distance help avoid safety biases?",[1655,1672,1687],{"id":1656,"data":1657,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1660},"5bc4fd85-64d7-4c62-9584-d16201aa63da",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1658,"audioMediaId":1659},"The **safety** category includes biases like loss aversion, the framing effect, and the sunk cost fallacy. These biases describe the human tendency to place greater weight on negative consequences than on positive outcomes. We frequently see this line of thinking in areas where financial decisions and risk assessment are involved, especially where limited resources are allocated across an array of options.\n\nPlaying things too safe may see key decision-makers foregoing viable opportunities deemed too risky, or clinging on to current projects that do not make business sense. Neither scenario is in the best interests of their organization.","3bbfdb5f-4a24-4ca9-9dc3-eaedae413b35",[1661],{"id":1331,"data":1662,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1663,"multiChoiceQuestion":1664,"multiChoiceCorrect":1666,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1667,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1668,"matchPairsPairs":1669},[1326,1329,1330],[1665],"Which of the following best describes safety biases?",[1503],[1335,1337,1338],[87],[1670],{"left":1671,"right":1503,"direction":27},"Safety biases",{"id":1673,"data":1674,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1677},"54f38da3-f8d4-43da-97ff-ca264f54e67d",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1675,"audioMediaId":1676},"To avoid safety biases, individuals can impose some psychological distance between themselves and the situation. They can imagine themselves giving advice to a friend in the same circumstance, or they can pretend that the decision had already been made in the past, and they are simply re-evaluating it from the future. Removing oneself from the decision allows for an objective assessment made with clearer eyes and less emotional attachment.\n\nThe SEEDS model reiterates that bias is universal and in no way indicative of experience or expertise. We are all – across the board – prone to committing cognitive biases, whether we believe we are or not. That said, individuals high in self-awareness are better equipped to avoid some types of bias.","f5bf7b03-d8f8-4633-a189-2e169fc9b6b0",[1678],{"id":1679,"data":1680,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"c35e2c2d-353a-481c-8faf-ddad13d3fb04",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1681,"binaryCorrect":1683,"binaryIncorrect":1685},[1682],"Which of these is a good way of dealing with safety biases?",[1684],"Imagining what advice you'd give to a friend in the same situation",[1686],"Labelling based on your experiences",{"id":1688,"data":1689,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1692},"ef2ff6b1-43bf-41d7-9952-70b3e4cc2965",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1690,"audioMediaId":1691},"Most cognitive biases are best avoided by slowing down our thinking so that our decisions better reflect cognitive effort and not our gut instinct. But any serious attempts at mitigating bias would involve eliminating any space for it to occur, not tackling it head-on as it happens. To this end, organizations should put systems and processes in place to nudge individuals into debiasing practices.\n\nFinally, prior research on group intelligence points out that addressing cognitive bias is more effective when regarded as a group endeavor and not as an individual effort. As such, organizations are encouraged to embrace a systems approach and to foster a culture that seeks to address bias by playing to its members' diverse strengths and skills.","f4e7d7d1-4e8b-49fa-a1d4-c7faceac80da",[1693],{"id":1694,"data":1695,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"521d798d-dc48-4d5d-8990-8779c8c9968c",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1696,"binaryCorrect":1698,"binaryIncorrect":1700},[1697],"Addressing cognitive bias is more effective when regarded as what?",[1699],"A group endeavour",[1701],"An individual effort",{"id":1703,"data":1704,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"orbs":1707},"6aefca8e-d4be-4f20-a499-40ce1af96c6f",{"type":28,"title":1705,"tagline":1706},"A View from Business: Lovallo and Sibony’s Behavioral Strategy","Halvorson and Rock’s SEEDS model proposes five categories of cognitive biases and their corresponding mitigation strategies.",[1708,1810],{"id":1709,"data":1710,"type":41,"version":43,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1712,"introPage":1720,"pages":1726},"a45575c4-eca0-4268-9a4d-622280216ed0",{"type":41,"title":1711},"The Birth of Behavioral Strategy",{"id":1713,"data":1714,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"8bd8a80d-027a-4337-94b4-5560c4561374",{"type":27,"summary":1715},[1716,1717,1718,1719],"Behavioral strategy combines corporate decision-making with behavioral economics","McKinsey found executives are satisfied with strategic decisions only half the time","Debiasing should be embedded in daily activities, not just key decisions","Kahneman, Lovallo, and Sibony's checklist helps spot bias in strategic proposals",{"id":1721,"data":1722,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"edc4a327-ec0e-4be1-940b-a89c4608f129",{"type":55,"intro":1723},[1724,1725],"What is 'behavioral strategy' according to Lovallo and Sibony?","Why is it important to embed debiasing practices into daily activities?",[1727,1744,1749,1766,1783,1788],{"id":1728,"data":1729,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1732},"d8968919-5697-4068-807a-7504f74c1adf",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1730,"audioMediaId":1731},"In a 2010 McKinsey Quarterly article, Dan Lovallo and Olivier Sibony used the term **‘behavioral strategy,’** referring to the intersection of corporate decision-making and behavioral economics. In a survey of over 1000 business executives, McKinsey found that the majority were satisfied with their organization’s strategic decisions only half the time. Even in the best companies, large projects rarely go to plan; they exceed their allotted budget and initial timelines; revenue forecasts prove overly optimistic.\n\n![Graph](image://c9c6d86b-b38e-4761-bfae-0ddc235c7b76 \"Behavioural strategist, Oliver Sibony. Image: \nOlivier Sibony, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nBetter strategic decision-making requires two components – an accurate estimation of the organization’s implementation and execution capabilities, and a realistic expectation of competitors’ reactions to planned changes. Both require judgment calls, which means they are susceptible to overoptimism and overconfidence as well as loss aversion.","335fb60b-faa6-433b-af3c-35b8ce01d01f",[1733],{"id":1734,"data":1735,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"32b01d5d-87df-43b3-aa2a-3ea99892bd3c",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1736,"multiChoiceCorrect":1738,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1740,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1737],"What term is used for the intersection of corporate decision-making and behavioral economics?",[1739],"Behavioral strategy",[1741,1742,1743],"Bias mitigation","Nudging","Anti-bias policy",{"id":1745,"data":1746,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"b0f6239a-32a1-4e3a-8b7d-27de1dc652b6",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1747,"audioMediaId":1748},"Lovallo and Sibony draw on these observations to suggest that behavioral strategy is key for companies to make better strategic decisions. Instead of addressing bias individually, encourage debiasing through process and culture. Instead of relying on employees’ individual efforts, focus on tools and processes. At the end of the day, good process will weed out poor analysis. Debiasing practices should not be limited to key management decisions.\n\nInstead, they should be embedded into even seemingly mundane daily activities performed throughout all levels of the organization. After all, when a chief executive gives the final stamp of approval on a proposed project, their judgment is based on information gathered and presented by their team. They have to rely on the comprehensiveness, reliability, and accuracy of the information before them. But what makes it into the proposal is driven by small everyday decisions.","62c846d6-2368-4f9e-bd3a-ae7dccad64a0",{"id":1750,"data":1751,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1754},"35b1aeb6-2476-4000-9c1c-a1f70767ea08",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1752,"audioMediaId":1753},"Some decisions within the organization may not make it to management level but still impact a company’s overall direction. Functional, routinary activities can compound on one another and effectively shift a company’s course without undergoing any formal process.\n\nIn this regard, a culture that embraces debiasing practices at all levels – encouraging healthy discussion and dissenting opinions, using red teams, and celebrating diversity of background, skill, and personality – can help a company maintain its course without the distraction of noise.\n\n![Graph](image://77957aac-95f5-4263-9cfa-d3d4a8368b01 \"Employees engaged in an open, healthy discussion. Image: Luisalvaz, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIn the article Before You Make That Big Decision…, Kahneman, Lovallo, and Sibony propose a checklist of 12 questions that decision-makers should answer to check for the undue influence of bias on projects presented before them.","6b5c1a08-aa83-434e-882c-934ca585ee9a",[1755],{"id":1475,"data":1756,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":1757,"multiChoiceQuestion":1758,"multiChoiceCorrect":1760,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1761,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":1762,"matchPairsPairs":1763},[1471,1474,1476],[1759],"Which of the following most closely applies to Kahneman's 12 questions?",[1483],[1480,1482,1484],[87],[1764],{"left":1765,"right":1483,"direction":27},"Checklist of 12 Questions",{"id":1767,"data":1768,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1771},"260bcd51-cbaf-4e55-ae73-f8898375b81e",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1769,"audioMediaId":1770},"The first part of the checklist requires the decision-maker to check for any red flags to do with the recommending group. Do they have any vested interest in the proposal, like reputation or career advancement? Have they become so attached to their idea to the point of losing objectivity? How about the group dynamics?\n\nGroupthink is particularly problematic, as it prevents members from voicing out dissenting views and exploring alternative paths. The decision-maker needs to answer these questions without asking them directly of the recommending team. If they must consult with others within the organization, they must do so discreetly. And if a dissenting member in the group has relevant inputs, the decision-maker should have a separate discussion with them.","ae69e0b0-3245-4144-9b16-a356d3f7bd56",[1772],{"id":1773,"data":1774,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"050ee108-749b-4916-a6ec-3560677b343d",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1775,"multiChoiceCorrect":1777,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1779,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1776],"What is the first part of Kahneman's 12 step decision checklist?",[1778],"Checking for red flags in the team",[1780,1781,1782],"Focusing on the processes followed by the team","Evaluating the quality of the project","Re-aligning the debiased project",{"id":1784,"data":1785,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"4eea8ca5-f21e-4372-9ae8-e6994868babe",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1786,"audioMediaId":1787},"The majority of the decision checklist focuses on the process that the team undertook to craft their proposal. The decision-maker will want to follow the team’s line of thinking from start to finish. In doing so, they can check for gaps in logic or for instances where bias might have influenced the team. A few key questions form this part of the assessment. What assumptions did the team make in creating the proposal? What information was used – or overlooked? How thoroughly did the team assess other options? Does this proposal draw inspiration from other projects? How comparable are they?\n\nWhen referring to successful projects, we might assume that, by virtue of similarity, our proposal should likewise succeed. In our optimism, we may fail to see where key variables differ. Conversely, examining similar projects that failed can prove valuable in uncovering risks previously unforeseen. Ultimately, the decision-maker should ensure that the team is recommending this particular project because it is a solid plan, independent of extraneous details.","b58cfd7b-9fcb-4000-8e56-0d4c75de5eb0",{"id":1789,"data":1790,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1793},"1e749ab4-adbd-43fd-ba86-24dded107eeb",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1791,"audioMediaId":1792},"The final part of Kahneman, Lovallo, and Sibony’s decision checklist involves evaluating the quality of the proposal. Many business projects fail because of overconfidence. Managers draw up unrealistic timelines and make overoptimistic forecasts, or they fail to consider how competitors might respond to their plans. They might overestimate the firm’s capabilities, or rely on a star employee who may not stay long enough to see the project through. In crafting proposals, it's important that the team has examined the worst-case scenario so that contingencies and risk mitigation strategies are put in place.\n\nConversely, a company culture that is allergic to risk might have managers forgoing viable alternatives due to fear of failure. To this end, it is important that key members are aware of the company’s current risk appetite. Decision-makers are reminded to avoid showing partiality to any one option while the proposal is being drawn up. Doing so risks undue influence on the recommending team, potentially swaying their recommendation toward the decision-maker’s implied preference.","fbe219e8-63c6-42eb-8363-8e783d35a297",[1794,1802],{"id":1795,"data":1796,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"d31826b3-c3f8-4953-831b-3a6b54c14629",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1797,"multiChoiceCorrect":1799,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1800,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1798],"What forms the largest share of Kahneman's 12 step decision checklist?",[1780],[1778,1801,1782],"Communicating processes across teams",{"id":1803,"data":1804,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"12faa84f-349c-4121-bc67-a9500047645d",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1805,"multiChoiceCorrect":1807,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1808,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1806],"What does the final part of Kahneman's checklist involve?",[1781],[1778,1809,1782],"Communicating the project to stakeholders",{"id":1811,"data":1812,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1814,"introPage":1822,"pages":1828},"8f70a320-894a-4e8b-9dc7-66e8c26e6839",{"type":41,"title":1813},"Advanced Decision-Making Techniques",{"id":1815,"data":1816,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"d94c7969-c4be-4e85-a61d-a0df5cfc3b59",{"type":27,"summary":1817},[1818,1819,1820,1821],"Premortem planning helps teams identify potential project failures by imagining a fiasco","Investment decisions need a set risk appetite to avoid excessive risk-taking or being too cautious","Resource distribution should adapt to changing contexts, not just follow last year's budget","Red teams and scenario planning can reveal hidden flaws and unforeseen outcomes",{"id":1823,"data":1824,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"39665e77-2a1a-4259-93b9-6f79f15653dc",{"type":55,"intro":1825},[1826,1827],"What is the main purpose of premortem planning?","How can a red team help in complex planning?",[1829,1844,1866],{"id":1830,"data":1831,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1834},"facf03eb-af75-42cd-b9a9-3ede723218c6",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1832,"audioMediaId":1833},"Gary Klein introduced **‘premortem planning’** in 2007. Since then, its ease of use has endeared itself to business executives and behavioral scientists. The premortem starts with the idea that pessimism is taboo in project planning. We do not voice concerns when everyone else seems on board with an idea.\n\nThe internalized notion of being a team player prevents us from examining the potential pitfalls of a plan. In premortem planning, individuals are asked to imagine that the project has moved forward. Unfortunately, it was a fiasco. With this in mind, team members list down all possible ways the project could have gone wrong.\n\nThis practice shifts individuals’ mindsets. Whereas they would have initially felt uneasy entertaining the idea of failure, the exercise removes the burden of going against the grain. Failure has become a given, and the task is now to come up with all the possible threats lying in wait. The veil of confidence and optimism in the project is removed, allowing for a clear view of blind spots previously undetected.","71b9d0e4-1469-45f5-b57b-acde4c1b5342",[1835],{"id":1836,"data":1837,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"fbadc0e4-a228-4d08-8ea3-869aa3ec5955",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1838,"binaryCorrect":1840,"binaryIncorrect":1842},[1839],"What does the term 'premortem planning' mean?",[1841],"Planning for all potential pitfalls",[1843],"Avoiding planning altogether",{"id":1845,"data":1846,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1849},"8d4d8067-238a-447f-9f64-500aa09983ce",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1847,"audioMediaId":1848},"Not all decisions require stringent process reviews and checklists. Applying equal rigor across all decisions is costly and time-consuming; therefore, organizations must identify which choices are worth time and effort and which ones are more likely to be impacted by bias. These are the decision processes that warrant redesign. Sibony, Lovallo, and Powell identify three high-stake strategic decisions with high susceptibility to bias.\n\nFirstly, investment decisions are prone to excessive risk-taking for high-stakes projects and too little for minor decisions. To address this, the company needs to set its general risk appetite. Risk levels should then be assigned for different investment sizes.\n\n![Graph](image://13600d34-ac18-4a0a-b046-6d62b5ab66f0 \"Investment risk dice. Image: freeGraphicToday, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nSecond, resource distribution suffers from inertia and status quo bias. Budgets are often set in proportion to previous years’ allocations regardless of changing contexts. But a business unit entering a high-growth phase requires extra funds to effectively capitalize on opportunities. Conversely, units in declining markets can make do with smaller budgets.\n\nLastly, where innovation is required, teams may be hampered by myopic lenses. Organizations must widen their angle of vision to approach opportunities with agility and innovation.","99225276-0bfe-46b4-a0f2-c5cffa066eb7",[1850,1857],{"id":1851,"data":1852,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"31e5c45b-93ff-4a79-86cd-b22ae1f92704",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1853,"binaryCorrect":1855,"binaryIncorrect":1856},[1854],"Do all business decisions require premortem plannning?",[890],[892],{"id":1858,"data":1859,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"7f2ce09e-691e-4ad7-970e-b526b09a3c9d",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":1860,"binaryCorrect":1862,"binaryIncorrect":1864},[1861],"According to Sibony, Lovallo, and Powell, what is essential when making investment decisions?",[1863],"Setting a general risk appetite",[1865],"Identifying the size of the market for budget allocation",{"id":1867,"data":1868,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1871},"bb472a14-fbdd-4b15-a271-574dfc282652",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1869,"audioMediaId":1870},"The key to Lovallo and Sibony’s ideas on behavioral strategy is making sure that organizations design their decision-making processes with intent, in line with the company’s overall strategy. To this end, businesses can standardize decision-making processes and set clear evaluation criteria for key decisions.\n\nWhere complex planning is involved, a red team can prove valuable – an independent group that assesses and critiques plans without prior attachments or biases. Fleshing out key analyses in the presence of neutral third parties helps to identify any gaps in logic. Additionally, scenario planning can unveil eventualities previously unforeseen.\n\nIn terms of organizational culture, companies will want to nurture an environment that encourages debate – by depersonalizing discussions and cultivating a climate of trust. In this vein, leaders at the top will set the tone for the rest of the workforce.\n\n![Graph](image://0bff1b3e-eb2a-4cd4-8f30-c66df6193c6f \"Organisation encouraging open round table discussions. Image: Oregon Department of Transportation, CC BY 2.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIt is worth remembering that, besides cognitive biases, conscious biases also often impact organizations. Office politics can drive group dynamics and can influence decision-making. These, too, need to be addressed and will require their own toolkit.","8c118dac-fe4e-4283-b84a-f0a828460fd7",[1872],{"id":1873,"data":1874,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"58e5ff6e-e0d3-4c7e-a6b9-1d5e8ff69f86",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1875,"multiChoiceCorrect":1877,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1879,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1876],"What is a red team, in the context of behavioral strategy?",[1878],"An independent group that assesses and critiques plans",[1880,1881,1882],"A group of senior executives with ultimate veto power","A committee of team members involved with the project","A group of junior members of the project team, who are given the chance to voice their views",{"id":1884,"data":1885,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"orbs":1888},"68122dbb-0790-46d6-8b7e-527206915097",{"type":28,"title":1886,"tagline":1887},"Nudging, and Other Applications","Take a look at how businesses use behavioral strategy to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias on their organization.",[1889,1985],{"id":1890,"data":1891,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1893,"introPage":1901,"pages":1907},"5bfad54b-040e-4e79-bcc5-4519d278cc86",{"type":41,"title":1892},"Nudge Theory and Applications",{"id":1894,"data":1895,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"adf39cdd-2b02-4990-9f82-29a9fbaf0818",{"type":27,"summary":1896},[1897,1898,1899,1900],"Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein's book *Nudge* introduced the concept of nudges in 2008","Nudges influence behavior by changing decision-making contexts without restricting choices","The UK’s Behavioral Insights Team used nudges to boost tax revenue by £200 million in one year","Cognitive bias modification (CBM) uses computerized tasks to help treat mental conditions like anxiety and depression",{"id":1902,"data":1903,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"d86c943c-5449-4430-92ac-53b6be89ef07",{"type":55,"intro":1904},[1905,1906],"How did the UK government use nudges to increase tax revenue?","What is the main idea behind cognitive bias modification (CBM)?",[1908,1925,1942,1955,1968],{"id":1909,"data":1910,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1913},"9d57cf4c-1168-446b-83a8-e913643b02c6",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1911,"audioMediaId":1912},"Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein’s 2008 book *Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness* introduced the concept of nudges. Drawing from the idea that irrationality pushes humans to act in predictable ways, the book claimed that nudges could leverage our biases and steer action in a particular direction.\n\nThe idea swiftly gained popularity and drew interest from policymakers, business executives, and marketing folk. Many liked that these interventions do not take away people’s ability to choose – there is no coercion or restriction involved. A nudge simply influences behavior by modifying the context in which people make decisions. It could be as simple as rearranging the way menu options are laid out to encourage customers to opt for something healthier.","5054c0f5-97a8-42e5-840c-95146325d8d0",[1914],{"id":1915,"data":1916,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"4b57e7ca-98dd-46dc-acf4-1c54b24d7522",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1917,"multiChoiceCorrect":1919,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1921,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1918],"What is a nudge (in the context of behavioural economics)?",[1920],"A gentle push, which does not take away people’s ability to choose.",[1922,1923,1924],"A nudge is a strict rule that forces people to make a specific choice, removing their ability to choose freely"," A nudge is a financial incentive that rewards people for making certain decisions"," A nudge is a form of direct persuasion that convinces people to change their behavior through argument and debate.",{"id":1926,"data":1927,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1930},"b1e1c9e5-072d-4454-8690-97275f8fd207",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1928,"audioMediaId":1929},"The cost-effectivity and simplicity of nudges, and the fact that they are not quite as contentious as taxes or bans, endeared them to policymakers who saw them as an easy way to effect changes in policy. Since then, nudges have been used to promote smoking cessation, improve hand hygiene, and increase employee productivity. The healthcare industry has also explored the potential benefit of nudges in improving patient care through personalized medicine.\n\nInnovations in consumer health technology like mobile health apps and wearables have allowed patients to track their health data in real time. Furthermore, patient data such as physical activity, vital signs, and medication adherence can be transmitted to update patient health records.\n\n![Graph](image://c9ce11df-68e8-4244-95d3-e523f7a4c107 \"Health wearable product. Image: Peterhcharlton, CC BY 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nGoing a step further, consumer health technologies can now deliver personalized medicine in the form of nudges. By using health data, artificial intelligence can glean patient insight and formulate effective nudges specifically designed for the patient.","f80cb76e-fbe8-429e-9e2c-b0701abd47be",[1931],{"id":1932,"data":1933,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"4735f9ce-fa1a-4d04-b5c7-e4f056ace8d8",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1934,"multiChoiceCorrect":1936,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1938,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1935],"Which of these would be an example of a nudge?",[1937],"Rearranging menus to prioritise healthier options",[1939,1940,1941],"Banning unhealthy foods","Taxing unhealthy foods","Subsidising healthier foods",{"id":1943,"data":1944,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1947},"5a5d8642-22bf-4014-86dc-ad38a62f9243",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1945,"audioMediaId":1946},"The use of these technologies is still in its early days. Further study needs to be done to assess the effectiveness of these tools in improving the delivery of care. At this time, user adoption is still low, as concerns about data security have been raised. Companies will have to adopt regulatory frameworks to address patients’ data concerns. Among the early adopters of nudging was the UK government, which set up the Behavioral Insights Team (BIT) in 2010.\n\nOne of the BIT’s first projects was to use nudges to encourage payment of past-due taxes. Through a carefully worded letter sent to delinquent taxpayers, the project contributed an extra £200 million in revenue for HM Revenue and Customs in its first year – equivalent to 6% of letter recipients. Since then, other countries have followed suit and set up their own nudge units.","85f1035b-b038-4cc0-a8cc-c6b31548161c",[1948],{"id":1949,"data":1950,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"6eec7b35-9401-4360-8a8e-3988219b8eb1",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":1951,"activeRecallAnswers":1953},[1952],"What initiative by the UK Government in 2010 resulted in an extra £200 million in tax revenue?",[1954],"The Behavioral Insights Team (BIT)",{"id":1956,"data":1957,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":1960},"4d953017-f4a3-4316-9977-7a4afd0f6d51",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1958,"audioMediaId":1959},"Aside from government, businesses enthusiastically welcomed the idea of nudging. Companies have used nudges to improve customer satisfaction, encourage employee retention, and avoid workplace incidents. Nudging has its fair share of critics, who have raised questions about its ethics.\n\nThough nudges are primarily used to help people make better decisions, a line must be drawn between encouragement and manipulation. Nudging may also be used for malicious purposes just as easily as for good intent. Lastly, further studies need to be done to determine how effective nudging really is.","be4b3da8-a505-49fd-8c98-43a0752d545a",[1961],{"id":1962,"data":1963,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"8c5d0fd5-67f5-47d5-8de7-f59ff7211c85",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":1964,"clozeWords":1966},[1965],"Critics of nudges have raised questions about its ethics",[1967],"ethics",{"id":1969,"data":1970,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27,"reviews":1973},"075705e7-421c-4505-a421-0560d2bab524",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":1971,"audioMediaId":1972},"Cognitive bias modification (CBM) is a relatively new technique that aims to address mental conditions by targeting underlying cognitive biases. CBM rests on the idea that people with conditions like depression and anxiety are vulnerable to attention bias and interpretation bias. For example, someone with anxiety is more alert to threats than average. CBM uses computerized activities like the ‘dot-probe task’ to train individuals to be less sensitive to negative stimuli. Since tasks are delivered through computers or mobile phones, CBM is easily accessible to patients.\n\n![Graph](image://05988953-30c9-432d-8651-d5f710924cb4 \"Example of a CBM computerized task. Image: Wkerst, CC BY-SA 3.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nIn terms of effectiveness, an early study showed that eight 15-minute sessions of CBM helped 72% of subjects with social anxiety disorder. Results were still evident in patients four months later. That said, proponents of CBM suggest using it to complement (not replace) traditional treatment methods. While early research shows promise, overall reception thus far has been mixed. However, the lukewarm reception has not discouraged researchers from exploring CBM’s potential use in post-traumatic stress disorder and addiction issues. Watch this space as further studies are being conducted.","a0b273ef-3838-4872-8daa-3e093abd8b30",[1974],{"id":1975,"data":1976,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"59166f20-0de9-4ee5-ae57-d68b0222c3ef",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":1977,"multiChoiceCorrect":1979,"multiChoiceIncorrect":1981,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[1978],"What kind of patients typically undergo CBM (Cognitive bias modification)?",[1980],"People with depression and anxiety",[1982,1983,1984],"People with OCD","People with schizophrenia","People with ADHD",{"id":1986,"data":1987,"type":41,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":1989,"introPage":1997,"pages":2003},"df847a85-18de-45b8-a48b-416c565646b4",{"type":41,"title":1988},"Behavioral Frameworks in Policy",{"id":1990,"data":1991,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"42a0e581-def4-481d-9d04-23192ce34760",{"type":27,"summary":1992},[1993,1994,1995,1996],"MINDSPACE uses 9 elements to drive behavior change: Messenger, Incentives, Norms, Defaults, Salience, Priming, Affect, Commitments, Ego","Policies should make desired behaviors easy and natural, not just informative","The 4Es framework adds Enable, Encourage, Engage, Exemplify to MINDSPACE","The 'Get Braids Not AIDS' campaign in Zimbabwe boosted female condom use from 15% to 28%",{"id":1998,"data":1999,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"c6150c8f-43aa-4fac-900c-a321fe71232a",{"type":55,"intro":2000},[2001,2002],"What are the nine elements of the MINDSPACE framework?","How did the 'Get Braids Not AIDS' campaign increase female condom use in Zimbabwe?",[2004,2019,2032],{"id":2005,"data":2006,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24,"reviews":2009},"4d6d6f0b-5986-4fe6-9762-0c82fa27dde7",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2007,"audioMediaId":2008},"Similar to nudging, the MINDSPACE framework applies behavioral science concepts in promoting behavioral change. The framework encourages policymakers to design programs with the understanding that human behavior is driven by system 1 thinking, the intuitive mind. This is a clear shift from the traditional focus on facts and information, dominated by system 2 thinking.\n\nA product of the UK Cabinet Office’s attempts to improve policymaking, ‘MINDSPACE’ identifies nine elements behind human behavior – *Messenger, Incentives, Norms, Defaults, Salience, Priming, Affect, Commitments*, and *Ego*. Instead of explaining how a policy benefits constituents, changing the context in which decisions are made – any of the nine elements identified by the framework – is more effective in promoting behavior change.\n","738a8c2f-aed3-44a5-b9a8-7dcf0300e496",[2010],{"id":2011,"data":2012,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"752835d7-68ba-45cc-9223-683799755ea2",{"type":29,"reviewType":41,"spacingBehaviour":24,"binaryQuestion":2013,"binaryCorrect":2015,"binaryIncorrect":2017},[2014],"What is the purpose of the MINDSPACE mnemonic?",[2016],"A system for policymakers to cater to system 1 thinking",[2018],"A system for policymakers to cater to system 2 thinking",{"id":2020,"data":2021,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24,"reviews":2024},"d02d020a-0a0d-4142-b7c3-c45bb5c6d4ae",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2022,"audioMediaId":2023},"\nApplying this thinking, policies should make the desired behavior frictionless, effortless, and natural, or otherwise regarded as a norm or societal expectation. How policies are framed – and who provides recommendations – matters. Humans tend to follow through on behavior changes recommended by experts they respect, or if it makes them feel better about themselves.\n\nThe UK’s Behavioral Insight Team has supplemented the MINDSPACE framework with the 4Es policy framework, which has been used in prior behavior change programs. The 4Es refer to the four actions that government needs to undertake when trying to sway human behavior – Enable, Encourage, Engage, and Exemplify. To this, the BIT suggests two more Es – Explore and Evaluate.\n","86f91447-2f70-40a3-893a-53b9d4832113",[2025],{"id":2026,"data":2027,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"2fc6c1ad-a7e8-4bf1-a40f-8b8e3f927285",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":2028,"activeRecallAnswers":2030},[2029],"What does the M stand for in the MINDSPACE mnemonic?",[2031],"Messenger",{"id":2033,"data":2034,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":2037},"1d0711c2-482c-4be9-ba96-4ef14f380c59",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2035,"audioMediaId":2036},"One of the programs born out of the MINDSPACE framework was the ‘Get Braids Not AIDS’ campaign in Zimbabwe. This program relied on hairdressers to serve as effective messengers of information on female contraceptives. Women were more receptive to advice from their hairdressers because they were perceived as friendly and supportive, offering a safe space to discuss personal issues.\n\n![Graph](image://64a9e29b-fda5-4b76-9d3d-eb6c703f26a8 \"Hairdresser at work. Image: Rwebogora, CC BY-SA 4.0 \u003Chttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nStudy results report that, among participants, female condom use increased from 15% to 28%. However, the issue of continued use persists since half of the women reported using the contraceptive only once. As with other behavior change policies, ensuring that behavior change is sustainable is an area for improvement.","7e2a4446-c2fc-4ae4-a0a6-ad845fd97742",[2038,2048,2059],{"id":2039,"data":2040,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"fb25dd93-9529-4d0e-aa69-2bd4e7dce96f",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":2041,"activeRecallAnswers":2043},[2042],"What are the four E's that refer to actions that need to be undertaken when trying to sway human behavior?",[2044,2045,2046,2047],"Enable","Encourage","Engage","Exemplify",{"id":2049,"data":2050,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"38b419f5-a651-4bf5-b8d3-ffd10f211820",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":2051,"multiChoiceCorrect":2053,"multiChoiceIncorrect":2055,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[2052],"How was the MINDSPACE framework used in the ‘Get Braids Not AIDS’ campaign in Zimbabwe?",[2054],"Hairdressers were used as the messengers of the new policy",[2056,2057,2058],"Free haircuts were given out to raise awareness","Infomercials raised public understanding","People with braids qualified for free contraception",{"id":1476,"data":2060,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"collapsingSiblings":2061,"multiChoiceQuestion":2062,"multiChoiceCorrect":2064,"multiChoiceIncorrect":2065,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6,"matchPairsQuestion":2066,"matchPairsPairs":2067},[1471,1474,1475],[2063],"Which of the following most closely applies to the MINDSPACE framework?",[1484],[1480,1482,1483],[87],[2068],{"left":2069,"right":1484,"direction":27},"MINDSPACE framework",{"id":2071,"data":2072,"type":28,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":43,"orbs":2075},"039a291d-334b-4274-98ad-04371cbc2ffc",{"type":28,"title":2073,"tagline":2074},"An Evolutionary Perspective","Take a look at further research being done in the realm of cognitive bias.",[2076,2141],{"id":2077,"data":2078,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":2080,"introPage":2088,"pages":2094},"27102e0f-1ae4-43a0-96e1-e5888e98e0ed",{"type":41,"title":2079},"Introduction to Cognitive Biases",{"id":2081,"data":2082,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"64197b59-4aa0-42de-89f4-6f4c59972663",{"type":27,"summary":2083},[2084,2085,2086,2087],"Cognitive biases are seen as adaptive features, not flaws, from an evolutionary perspective","Our brains evolved to solve survival problems, not to maximize profits or solve logic puzzles","Heuristics are mental shortcuts that helped our ancestors make quick decisions with limited info","Biases like hindsight and optimism can be beneficial in real-world settings, despite seeming irrational in labs",{"id":2089,"data":2090,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"5d09e1da-8581-417a-b12c-b6116dbfa76f",{"type":55,"intro":2091},[2092,2093],"Why might cognitive biases be considered adaptive features from an evolutionary perspective?","How does hindsight bias demonstrate the brain's mechanism for self-correction?",[2095,2100,2122,2136],{"id":2096,"data":2097,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":27},"1b395988-f3f8-4371-a81d-55c8abf6908d",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2098,"audioMediaId":2099},"Most literature on cognitive biases frames them as limitations or failures of the human mind, suggesting an inability to keep up with the world. There is, however, a subsection of psychologists who contend that this consensus is flawed and requires reframing.\n\nFrom an evolutionary perspective, cognitive biases can be seen as adaptive features, not flaws. These biases, which may lead to errors in judgment or decision making in certain contexts, might have conferred survival advantages in the environment in which our ancestors evolved.\n\n![Graph](image://b861a352-041e-4fe1-a34c-40ed2b9e4b63 \"Illustration of a caveman's survival instinct. Image: Public domain via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nWhen evolutionary psychologists say that our minds are ‘adaptively rational,’ it means that the human mind has, over millennia, adapted to recurrent problems our ancestors faced – in a word, survival; but specifically, food security, outsider threat, and sexual reproduction.","3fc05b4e-7322-4a7b-9e85-ab463eadef7d",{"id":2101,"data":2102,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":2105},"fc819669-54fe-4f25-99fe-ef71944b55bc",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2103,"audioMediaId":2104},"Our brains adapted, but not toward ‘rationality’ as most cognitive psychologists see it. The human mind was not optimized for maximizing profits, solving logic problems, or truth seeking. Thus, if we judge human thinking based on such metrics, we should not be surprised that our brains will appear flawed.\n\n![Graph](image://b5a76c4e-d36c-49d1-aa2b-5dad8cc17c79 \"Albert Einstein. Image: Public Domain via Wikimedia.\")\n\nAlbert Einstein is often misquoted as saying, *'Everybody is a genius, but if you judge a fish by the ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”* Doesn't the same apply to the human brain? Having evolved over millennia to adapt to our ancestors’ problems, it is now being judged through a modern-day lens.\n\nMany of the so-called flaws of the human mind, as studies in cognition reveal, are relics of our past. From an evolutionary perspective, the human brain is not ‘woefully muddled.’ Rather, our methods are flawed. Studies in cognition test the human mind away from its natural environment, based on metrics for which it was not optimized, and using a concept of ‘rationality’ that is foreign to it.","f7e200d2-fd07-42e1-9682-79c419fd385d",[2106,2113],{"id":2107,"data":2108,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"d4bc5112-06c7-4b62-b30c-8dd92744474c",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":2109,"activeRecallAnswers":2111},[2110],"In the context of evolutionary psychology, what does 'adaptively rational' mean?",[2112],"The idea that the human mind has evolved to not always be rational",{"id":2114,"data":2115,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"35fb8381-2e70-47ea-980a-9797968041f0",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":2116,"multiChoiceCorrect":2118,"multiChoiceIncorrect":2120,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[2117],"Which of these is an example of adaptive rationality in action:",[2119],"We've evolved to take mental shortcuts when recognising threats",[2121],"We've evolved to be good with numbers and abstract concepts",{"id":2123,"data":2124,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":2127},"add59b99-31a3-4da4-aaea-4978727b1f31",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2125,"audioMediaId":2126},"That's not to say that evolutionary psychologists deny the existence of cognitive biases; they disagree with the idea that the presence of bias is conflated with irrationality. Instead, they say, bias points to one of three categories – *heuristics, error management effects*, and *experimental artifacts*.\n\nCognitive psychologists explain heuristics as mental shortcuts that assist humans in decision-making. But evolutionary psychologists and behavioral scientists disagree on the effectiveness of heuristics. Literature on cognitive bias points to heuristics as the source of erroneous decision-making. Evolutionary psychology contends that these so-called errors in thinking are results of heuristics taken out of context.\n\nOur ancestors often had to make decisions on the fly, with limited information, and amidst a multitude of distractions. In this context, the ‘fast and frugal’ nature of heuristics was valuable. They required little information and a low cognitive load and this allowed our ancestors to make reasonably good choices. They made do with what was available.","30efb755-2404-4caa-8e7c-b49b855ec049",[2128],{"id":2129,"data":2130,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"97300a0b-6282-454e-a08a-7eb45b4b07b9",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":2131,"activeRecallAnswers":2133},[2132],"Into what three categories do evolutionary psychologists typically classify cognitive biases?",[209,2134,2135],"Error management effects","Experimental artifacts",{"id":2137,"data":2138,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41},"8d449b76-db55-4c63-8b0a-507ef827d539",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2139,"audioMediaId":2140},"- \n- Taking heuristics out of their natural environment and into the lab, researchers impose a different set of standards from what our brains have adapted to. Take hindsight bias. Most literature consider it an error of memory stemming from overconfidence. From an evolutionary standpoint, however, it shows our brain’s mechanism for self-correction, a way of updating our memory based on feedback received.\n\nAnother example can be found in the 'optimism bias,' which is a cognitive bias causing a person to believe they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.\n\nIn laboratory settings, this bias can appear as overconfidence. For example, in surveys, people might significantly underestimate their likelihood of experiencing negative life events (like getting divorced or having a car accident) and overestimate their likelihood of experiencing positive events (like living longer than average).\n\nIn real-world settings, this bias may have beneficial effects. They may be more resilient in the face of adversity and may be more likely to take actions that lead to positive outcomes (like starting a new project or business), because they believe they will be successful.","cace4fe9-9cb1-474c-ba1b-388cf3df42e9",{"id":2142,"data":2143,"type":41,"version":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"summaryPage":2145,"introPage":2153,"pages":2159},"871ef45d-93ae-4afa-96a3-5e876f55dcb7",{"type":41,"title":2144},"Heuristics and Error Management",{"id":2146,"data":2147,"type":27,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"b18e2294-c0dc-4162-8e63-1a2e33bab2eb",{"type":27,"summary":2148},[2149,2150,2151,2152],"Error management theory says we choose the less costly error when unsure about a stimulus","Aversion to smelly food is an adaptive trait to avoid illness","Overconfidence can be adaptive, pushing us to achieve more","Hyperbolic discounting makes sense evolutionarily because immediate rewards were safer",{"id":2154,"data":2155,"type":55,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"2e7d1cd0-be9b-4345-bdb3-7e52552a49d6",{"type":55,"intro":2156},[2157,2158],"Why do we sometimes overreact to distant roars?","How does hyperbolic discounting make sense from an evolutionary view?",[2160,2184,2197,2202],{"id":2161,"data":2162,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":2165},"ea17885e-6c4c-406c-97ee-39d1dcdf1b9a",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2163,"audioMediaId":2164},"Error management theory, as proposed by David Buss and Martie Haselton, suggests that, when humans react to a stimulus that may or may not exist, we choose the option that leads to less costly consequences for judgment errors. This bias is an evolutionary adaptation for dealing with situations in which we cannot ascertain the presence of a stimulus.\n\nFor example, when we hear a roaring in the distance but are unsure if we are in imminent danger, the less costly error would be to run for cover. If we were just overreacting, all we would have lost was energy and time. On the other hand, if we incorrectly ignore this potential sign of danger, we risk losing life or limb – a much greater price to pay. According to error management theory, our minds are biased to choose the first option because it results in a less costly error. This bias does not bother examining the probabilities of either option. It cares about reducing net cost, even at the expense of accuracy.\n","38e34e6a-a6b7-44ec-9ee4-c99365fdb2b6",[2166,2173],{"id":2167,"data":2168,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"9b63a4f0-fa8e-46c3-99ca-34a313017f37",{"type":29,"reviewType":24,"spacingBehaviour":24,"activeRecallQuestion":2169,"activeRecallAnswers":2171},[2170],"What is error management theory?",[2172],"The idea that we tend to choose options that lead to less costly consequences, even if it is not the rational response",{"id":2174,"data":2175,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"da73431d-e8d0-44cb-8f99-232517e3fc0f",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":2176,"multiChoiceCorrect":2178,"multiChoiceIncorrect":2180,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[2177],"Which of these is an example of error management theory?",[2179],"You hear a car exhaust bang, and take cover",[2181,2182,2183],"You hear a car exhaust bang, and rationally assume it is safe","You notice your car's engine looks faulty, but you keep using it anyway","You ignore the warning light on your car for months",{"id":2185,"data":2186,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":2189},"cfe4ebc7-935a-4091-97dd-14ec2e0d6f38",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2187,"audioMediaId":2188},"We can see examples of error management theory in our relationships with food, ourselves, and other people. Aversion to odorous food, for example, is an adaptive trait. Our mind could interpret the foul smell as spoilage and send us signals to avoid it, lest we get ill from ingesting something unsafe.\n\n![Graph](image://f7e5ad2b-f15d-4290-913c-887bbacc221b \"Food inspector checks freshness of fish import. Image: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\")\n\nFrom an evolutionary perspective, overconfidence can also be considered adaptive. If we do not believe in our capabilities, our life remains stagnant. But if we have belief in ourselves, we can achieve great things in life. Should our confidence prove unwarranted, we can pick ourselves back up and regroup.\n\nIn terms of social relationships, error management theory explains out-group bias as a necessity for our ancestors. If we incorrectly assume that a stranger bears no ill intent, letting our guard down could cost us our life. On the other hand, the only risk with being overly vigilant is coming across as unfriendly – a small cost in exchange for safety.","2c6e7504-d1cd-48aa-8512-0b8fafafcdd0",[2190],{"id":2191,"data":2192,"type":29,"version":24,"maxContentLevel":27},"88ec9b8d-98dc-40ea-a5e5-3f2061140c4a",{"type":29,"reviewType":27,"spacingBehaviour":24,"multiChoiceQuestion":2193,"multiChoiceCorrect":2195,"multiChoiceIncorrect":2196,"multiChoiceMultiSelect":6,"multiChoiceRevealAnswerOption":6},[2194],"Which social bias may be rooted in error management theory?",[1316],[1377,243,792],{"id":2198,"data":2199,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":24},"77144259-fd2e-448c-98f6-ede69b90cdbc",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2200,"audioMediaId":2201},"\nA third and final way to explain bias from an evolutionary perspective is that it may appear in studies as artifacts of research methods. As evolutionary psychologists argue, most cognitive research uses inappropriate techniques to assess human cognition. They find issue not just with how they study cognition but also with what they test for. There is a mismatch between our current concept of rationality and that of our ancestors. Their priority was survival. We have moved beyond that. Our brains, on the other hand, have adapted to our ancestors’ needs but have not yet caught up with ours.\n\nFor example, behavioral scientists view hyperbolic discounting as a human flaw because our preference for immediate rewards is irrational. However, if we take an evolutionary perspective, this tendency seems reasonable. We choose the immediate reward because we are unsure whether we will be around to reap future rewards – what if we are no longer alive by then? Neither line of thinking is superior, they are just made for different contexts.\n","f4e7d6f7-d8e8-4626-829d-295f7dbf6aa5",{"id":2203,"data":2204,"type":24,"maxContentLevel":27,"version":41,"reviews":2207},"c46d1570-d2e4-4af5-a722-b3b255307813",{"type":24,"contentRole":41,"markdownContent":2205,"audioMediaId":2206},"\nEvolutionary psychologists concede that not all biases are adaptive. The brain, for all its intricate magnificence, does have its limits and its flaws. But what an evolutionary perspective seeks to achieve is to reach a balance and move away from a value judgment of biases.\n\nRather than framing cognitive bias as something that needs to be eradicated, lapses in rationality present an opportunity for researchers to formulate better questions about how the mind works. Seeing biases as artifacts of research methods opens doors for improvements in methodology, and for a reassessment of the types of questions we ask about the human brain.\n\nCognitive psychology is a relatively young field of study with many growth opportunities. Drawing from its own recommendations, fostering a culture of open discussion and a diversity of views can pave the way for better learning and fruitful outcomes. As in other aspects of life, let us see past our own biases and use them to our benefit.\n","c8f8fff1-1af2-4081-bc8b-f70a5fe53e97",[2208],{"id":2209,"data":2210,"type":29,"version":41,"maxContentLevel":27},"4d6b3231-32f5-41ea-9bd7-c42b073389db",{"type":29,"reviewType":43,"spacingBehaviour":24,"clozeQuestion":2211,"clozeWords":2213},[2212],"Viewing cognitive bias as a flaw is actually a misunderstanding, from an evolutionary standpoint",[2214],"misunderstanding",{"left":4,"top":4,"width":2216,"height":2216,"rotate":4,"vFlip":6,"hFlip":6,"body":2217},24,"\u003Cpath fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"m9 18l6-6l-6-6\"/>",{"left":4,"top":4,"width":2216,"height":2216,"rotate":4,"vFlip":6,"hFlip":6,"body":2219},"\u003Cg fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\">\u003Cpath d=\"M12.586 2.586A2 2 0 0 0 11.172 2H4a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v7.172a2 2 0 0 0 .586 1.414l8.704 8.704a2.426 2.426 0 0 0 3.42 0l6.58-6.58a2.426 2.426 0 0 0 0-3.42z\"/>\u003Ccircle cx=\"7.5\" cy=\"7.5\" r=\".5\" fill=\"currentColor\"/>\u003C/g>",1778228392858]